Periodic Reporting for period 4 - PNOWWA (Probabilistic Nowcasting of Winter Weather for Airports)
Período documentado: 2017-10-18 hasta 2018-04-17
The modern networked ATM world includes decision making and alternative plans on many levels from ground handling to deploying remote tower activities and balancing capacity between routes and airports. Automatic and semiautomatic decision making systems are deployed to ensure resilience and to optimize the use of resources. For such use, the probabilistic forecasts is the most natural way to act.
The full utilization of the probabilistic forecast needs seamless co-operation in development of the forecasting system and the ATM systems using it. Simultaneous development of SESAR2020 solutions for ATM applications enables the integration of probability forecasts from the concept level, and timing of this project allows us to raise awareness in a wide sector of aviation industry.
The improvements in the 4D trajectory management of air traffic to be provided by the PNOWWA project are of extreme importance for the European society due to ever increasing air traffic - especiallly because also the rate of increase of air traffic is predicted to be higher during the next decade. Hence the the scientific basis - provided by the PNOWWA project - enabling the quantification of the uncertainties related to delays at ground operations due to winter weather situation is of paramount importance for European air traffic.
The overall objectives of the PNOWWA project are a) to develop a method for probabilistic 0-3h forecasts (nowcasts) of snowfall and freezing rain at airport, in steps of 15 minutes, b) to improve our understanding, and hence predictability, of changes in snowfall intensity caused by underlying terrain, e.g. mountains and sea, c)Identify and promote the potential for use of probability forecasts in variety of airport activities and d) to make research demonstration of probabilistic winter weather product to show its potential for increasing the resilience of ATM system to winter weather.
Calculation of nowcasts with same methods for different areas has already revealed visible differences. We have identified periods for which analysis of historical data can be used to quantify the effects caused by underlying terrain, e.g. mountains and sea.
In the frame of the WP4 (Assessment of the potential of the ATM tools and roadmap generation) we performed a survey for determining the user needs and use of winter precipitation forecast at one selected airport. Results of the survey are under review and will be published in the beginning of the year 2017.
We have worked extensively in the planning and definition of the research demonstrations so that we could perform them in the next springtime. The current plan calls for the first of the research demonstration campaigns to be organized in January 2017. We have found cooperating partners from the ATM side to participate in the demonstration, representing different areas and different occupations. Preparations are well under way and there are no visible risks or issues preventing the campaign.
We have also done preliminary research with results beyond the state of the art - and tests with actual data - concerning the spatial varibility in the reliability of nowcasts due to sea, lake and orographic effects and how to incorporate such knowledg into our probabilistic nowcasting system.