In Air Traffic Management (ATM) the 4D trajectory management is a necessary concept to meet future growth in air traffic. However, aircraft always deviate from the planned 4D trajectory due to uncertainties during flight, departure and arrival airport. Therefore, there is a clear need to move to probability forecasts both in the local operational user environment and en-route. This project concentrates in quantifying the uncertainties related to delays at ground operations due to winter weather situations. The overarching objectives of using probabilistic forecasts in ATM applications are to support the timely operations in surface management and ATM decision making, to increase airport capacity, as well as to shorten delays and promote safety. The PNOWWA project will provide the scientific basis for these ground-braking improvements in the 4D trajectory management.
The modern networked ATM world includes decision making and alternative plans on many levels from ground handling to deploying remote tower activities and balancing capacity between routes and airports. Automatic and semiautomatic decision making systems are deployed to ensure resilience and to optimize the use of resources. For such use, the probabilistic forecasts is the most natural way to act.
The full utilization of the probabilistic forecast needs seamless co-operation in development of the forecasting system and the ATM systems using it. Simultaneous development of SESAR2020 solutions for ATM applications enables the integration of probability forecasts from the concept level, and timing of this project allows us to raise awareness in a wide sector of aviation industry.
The improvements in the 4D trajectory management of air traffic to be provided by the PNOWWA project are of extreme importance for the European society due to ever increasing air traffic - especiallly because also the rate of increase of air traffic is predicted to be higher during the next decade. Hence the the scientific basis - provided by the PNOWWA project - enabling the quantification of the uncertainties related to delays at ground operations due to winter weather situation is of paramount importance for European air traffic.
The overall objectives of the PNOWWA project are a) to develop a method for probabilistic 0-3h forecasts (nowcasts) of snowfall and freezing rain at airport, in steps of 15 minutes, b) to improve our understanding, and hence predictability, of changes in snowfall intensity caused by underlying terrain, e.g. mountains and sea, c)Identify and promote the potential for use of probability forecasts in variety of airport activities and d) to make research demonstration of probabilistic winter weather product to show its potential for increasing the resilience of ATM system to winter weather.
