Addressing key challenges for forecasting climate change effects on biodiversity: an assessment of dispersal limitation, priority effects and intra-species trait variation in range dynamics

Project Information

KeyDynamics

Grant agreement ID: 707491

DOI

10.3030/707491

Project terminated on 30 September 2017

EC signature date 8 February 2016

Start date 1 April 2017

End date 31 March 2019

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 212 194,80

EU contribution

€ 212 194,80

Coordinated by

AARHUS UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - KeyDynamics (Addressing key challenges for forecasting climate change effects on biodiversity: an assessment of dispersal limitation, priority effects and intra-species trait variation in range dynamics)

Reporting period: 2017-04-01 to 2019-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Global climate change and human-induced land use are changing ecological systems worldwide, with strong consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem. It is therefore a key challenge for science to provide a better predictive understanding of the dynamics involved. Climate warming is expected to move the ranges of terrestrial plants and, in particular, to shift the habitats suitable for them towards higher altitudes and latitudes. The ability to keep pace with these shifting habitat patterns is likely to be the key to the survival of many species and thus the provisioning and maintaining of ecosystem services. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved and, therefore, our ability to predict future dynamics is very limited.

Marie-Curie project 'KeyDynamics' aimed at addressing three key limits in our understanding of the reaction of species and associated ecosystem services to climate dynamics. There is limited knowledge i) to which extend current species' distributions are in equilibrium with their climatic niches, ii) how necessary range shifts are modulated by complex biotic interactions, which may depend on arrival order in a community i.e. "priority effects", and iii) if 'species' is the adequate unit for impact assessments and predictive modelling given large within-species variability in adaptive capacity. Addressing these objectives has the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of climate-biosphere interactions, with immediate practical applicability as well as contributions to fundamental ecological theory. The project further aimed in capacity building for the Postdoc by developing various skills beneficial for a successful scientist.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The project started following the initial plan with data and model preparation as well as personal capacity building. A very successful expert workshop with key scientists on dispersal/migration modelling was organized in September 2017 at Aarhus University and resulted in a strategy to develop integrated dispersal models. The Marie-Curie project KeyDynamics had to be terminated as the PostDoc was appointed to a permanent research position. Research successfully started during the project will be continued.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The Marie-Curie project KeyDynamics was terminated on 30/09/2017 after only six months as the Postdoc gained a permanent position as scientist in a European University. The aim of the Marie-Curie to enhance the career development of early career researchers was thus more than reached. It is planned to continue the research successfully started in the project.

Workshop on dispersal / migration