Addressing key challenges for forecasting climate change effects on biodiversity: an assessment of dispersal limitation, priority effects and intra-species trait variation in range dynamics

Informations projet

KeyDynamics

N° de convention de subvention: 707491

DOI

10.3030/707491

Projet clôturé le 30 Septembre 2017

Date de signature de la CE 8 Février 2016

Date de début 1 Avril 2017

Date de fin 31 Mars 2019

Financé au titre de

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coût total

€ 212 194,80

Contribution de l’UE

€ 212 194,80

Coordonné par

AARHUS UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - KeyDynamics (Addressing key challenges for forecasting climate change effects on biodiversity: an assessment of dispersal limitation, priority effects and intra-species trait variation in range dynamics)

Période du rapport: 2017-04-01 au 2019-03-31

Résumé du contexte et des objectifs généraux du projet

Global climate change and human-induced land use are changing ecological systems worldwide, with strong consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem. It is therefore a key challenge for science to provide a better predictive understanding of the dynamics involved. Climate warming is expected to move the ranges of terrestrial plants and, in particular, to shift the habitats suitable for them towards higher altitudes and latitudes. The ability to keep pace with these shifting habitat patterns is likely to be the key to the survival of many species and thus the provisioning and maintaining of ecosystem services. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved and, therefore, our ability to predict future dynamics is very limited.

Marie-Curie project 'KeyDynamics' aimed at addressing three key limits in our understanding of the reaction of species and associated ecosystem services to climate dynamics. There is limited knowledge i) to which extend current species' distributions are in equilibrium with their climatic niches, ii) how necessary range shifts are modulated by complex biotic interactions, which may depend on arrival order in a community i.e. "priority effects", and iii) if 'species' is the adequate unit for impact assessments and predictive modelling given large within-species variability in adaptive capacity. Addressing these objectives has the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of climate-biosphere interactions, with immediate practical applicability as well as contributions to fundamental ecological theory. The project further aimed in capacity building for the Postdoc by developing various skills beneficial for a successful scientist.

Travail effectué depuis le début du projet jusqu’à la fin de la période considérée dans le rapport et principaux résultats atteints jusqu’à présent

The project started following the initial plan with data and model preparation as well as personal capacity building. A very successful expert workshop with key scientists on dispersal/migration modelling was organized in September 2017 at Aarhus University and resulted in a strategy to develop integrated dispersal models. The Marie-Curie project KeyDynamics had to be terminated as the PostDoc was appointed to a permanent research position. Research successfully started during the project will be continued.

Progrès au-delà de l’état des connaissances et impact potentiel prévu (y compris l’impact socio-économique et les conséquences sociétales plus larges du projet jusqu’à présent)

The Marie-Curie project KeyDynamics was terminated on 30/09/2017 after only six months as the Postdoc gained a permanent position as scientist in a European University. The aim of the Marie-Curie to enhance the career development of early career researchers was thus more than reached. It is planned to continue the research successfully started in the project.

Workshop on dispersal / migration