Periodic Reporting for period 4 - EU-FER (Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe)
Reporting period: 2022-03-01 to 2023-08-31
EU-FER is a project about economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe. The increasing speed, dynamics, and volatility of economic outcomes from globalization, and the new wave of technological change, makes it increasingly difficult for individuals to imagine their future, choose between alternatives, and form strategies. This generates an extraordinary level of economic uncertainty, representing a game-changer in contemporary fertility dynamics.
Our results first suggest that the relationships between job uncertainty and fertility is shaped by gender: for men, being unemployed is more detrimental for fertility than having time-limited employment; for women, time-limited employment is the worst condition for fertility. In addition, the negative effect of time-limited employment on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous.
Second, among the newest findings, we demonstrated that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions depends on the level of subjective well-being across European countries and on personality traits linked to uncertainty such as time-discounting preferences. Also, the persistence of the experience of joblessness, not only the status itself, has been proved to play a key role in directing fertility planning.
Finally, we corroborated the vision that objective measures give only a partial (and possibly inaccurate) perspective: the specter of the future is highly significant. Net of traditional fertility predictors, birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty, which fueled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future. In the era of global uncertainty, narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.
Our results first suggest that the relationships between job uncertainty and fertility is shaped by gender: for men, being unemployed is more detrimental for fertility than having time-limited employment; for women, time-limited employment is the worst condition for fertility. In addition, the negative effect of time-limited employment on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous.
Second, among the newest findings, we demonstrated that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions depends on the level of subjective well-being across European countries and on personality traits linked to uncertainty such as time-discounting preferences. Also, the persistence of the experience of joblessness, not only the status itself, has been proved to play a key role in directing fertility planning.
Finally, we corroborated the vision that objective measures give only a partial (and possibly inaccurate) perspective: the specter of the future is highly significant. Net of traditional fertility predictors, birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty, which fueled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future. In the era of global uncertainty, narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.
From the beginning of the project, the EU-FER action was split into its three main pillars: a meta-analysis of prior research (pillar 1), cross-country experiments (pillar 2), micro-level analyses (pillar 3).
Regarding pillar 1, we conducted a meta-analysis on published research on the economic uncertainty/fertility nexus. This lead to the conclusion that unemployment is especially detrimental for fertility as for men, whereas for women the worst condition is represented by time-limited employment. This latter negative effect has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries.
Regarding pillar 2, the experimental approach allowed us test the effects of the narrative of economic uncertainty on fertility intentions. The team organized laboratory experiments in Italy and Norway and online experiments in Italy, Germany, United Kingdom, Norway and Poland. In brief, the results from laboratory and online experiments suggest that narratives of uncertain futures strongly affect fertility intentions.
Regarding pillar 3, we addressed some major questions.
1) Which uncertainty matters? We demonstrated that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions is shaped by the level of subjective well-being across European countries, and also housing uncertainty. In addition, we illustrated that time discounting preferences, a foreword looking personality traits linked to uncertainty, represent a determinant of fertility in Italy. Finally, we proposed an operational distinction between structural constraints and perceived uncertainty regarding the future, corroborating the vision that objective measures give only a partial (and possibly inaccurate) perspective: the spectre of the future is also highly significant.
2) Does persistent employment uncertainty play a role? Through the development of a persistent joblessness index, that simultaneously considers individual and contextual labour market conditions, we proved that disregarding the role of persistence in joblessness, underestimate the importance of individual-risk factors in fertility planning.
3) Are there gender-specific effects of economic uncertainty on fertility? Our results suggested a non-negligible causal impact of having a job with uncertain conditions on potential fertility postponement in Italy. For women, potential postponement was elevated among those with higher education, while for men potential postponement was especially visible among those with low and medium education.
4) What is the impact of the “Great Recession” on fertility? We showed that in Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the (traditional) recession indicators, whereas a clear positive association with fertility has been proved considering a new developed indicator which account for the economic context and economic complexity. We finally found that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty in Italy, which fuelled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future.
Overall, the EU-FER findings have been disseminated at several scientific and academic conferences, as well as at various meeting at local and national level. A dissemination activity on specific online newspapers has been implemented. Importantly, we established a collaboration with Professor Matysiak (PI of the ERC grant LABFER) integrating our ERC projects in the Horizon Results Booster, including an ad hoc video to promote and disseminate the findings of both projects combined. A final conference, where distinguished international experts have been invited, has been held at the in close proximity to the project's deadline.
Regarding pillar 1, we conducted a meta-analysis on published research on the economic uncertainty/fertility nexus. This lead to the conclusion that unemployment is especially detrimental for fertility as for men, whereas for women the worst condition is represented by time-limited employment. This latter negative effect has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries.
Regarding pillar 2, the experimental approach allowed us test the effects of the narrative of economic uncertainty on fertility intentions. The team organized laboratory experiments in Italy and Norway and online experiments in Italy, Germany, United Kingdom, Norway and Poland. In brief, the results from laboratory and online experiments suggest that narratives of uncertain futures strongly affect fertility intentions.
Regarding pillar 3, we addressed some major questions.
1) Which uncertainty matters? We demonstrated that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions is shaped by the level of subjective well-being across European countries, and also housing uncertainty. In addition, we illustrated that time discounting preferences, a foreword looking personality traits linked to uncertainty, represent a determinant of fertility in Italy. Finally, we proposed an operational distinction between structural constraints and perceived uncertainty regarding the future, corroborating the vision that objective measures give only a partial (and possibly inaccurate) perspective: the spectre of the future is also highly significant.
2) Does persistent employment uncertainty play a role? Through the development of a persistent joblessness index, that simultaneously considers individual and contextual labour market conditions, we proved that disregarding the role of persistence in joblessness, underestimate the importance of individual-risk factors in fertility planning.
3) Are there gender-specific effects of economic uncertainty on fertility? Our results suggested a non-negligible causal impact of having a job with uncertain conditions on potential fertility postponement in Italy. For women, potential postponement was elevated among those with higher education, while for men potential postponement was especially visible among those with low and medium education.
4) What is the impact of the “Great Recession” on fertility? We showed that in Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the (traditional) recession indicators, whereas a clear positive association with fertility has been proved considering a new developed indicator which account for the economic context and economic complexity. We finally found that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty in Italy, which fuelled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future.
Overall, the EU-FER findings have been disseminated at several scientific and academic conferences, as well as at various meeting at local and national level. A dissemination activity on specific online newspapers has been implemented. Importantly, we established a collaboration with Professor Matysiak (PI of the ERC grant LABFER) integrating our ERC projects in the Horizon Results Booster, including an ad hoc video to promote and disseminate the findings of both projects combined. A final conference, where distinguished international experts have been invited, has been held at the in close proximity to the project's deadline.
Thanks to EU-FER project, we have for the first time implemented a network meta-analysis in population studies, offering a quantitative systematization of the available literature for Europe to the topic for the scientific community.
Also, the use of online and laboratory experimentation represents an innovation for demographers and population research. So far, fertility intentions research has primarily used surveys, which do not allow the manipulation of conditions. EU-FER opened up new outlooks in family demography research and brings breakthrough in understanding the fertility decision-making process.
Finally, we proved that the study of fertility decisions cannot disregard the condition of uncertainty in which they are taken and, especially, its future–oriented nature.
Altogether, ERC project contributed to go beyond the current state of knowledge on the drivers of fertility choices, providing the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic, and proposing a novel approach, the “Narrative Framework” to operationalize the role of the future in family dynamics. Definitely, the ERC project popularised the use of experiment in family demography research, setting the stage for methodological advances in demographic analyses.
Also, the use of online and laboratory experimentation represents an innovation for demographers and population research. So far, fertility intentions research has primarily used surveys, which do not allow the manipulation of conditions. EU-FER opened up new outlooks in family demography research and brings breakthrough in understanding the fertility decision-making process.
Finally, we proved that the study of fertility decisions cannot disregard the condition of uncertainty in which they are taken and, especially, its future–oriented nature.
Altogether, ERC project contributed to go beyond the current state of knowledge on the drivers of fertility choices, providing the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic, and proposing a novel approach, the “Narrative Framework” to operationalize the role of the future in family dynamics. Definitely, the ERC project popularised the use of experiment in family demography research, setting the stage for methodological advances in demographic analyses.