From the beginning of the project, the EU-FER action was split into its three main pillars: a meta-analysis of prior research (pillar 1), cross-country experiments (pillar 2), micro-level analyses (pillar 3).
Regarding pillar 1, we conducted a meta-analysis on published research on the economic uncertainty/fertility nexus. This lead to the conclusion that unemployment is especially detrimental for fertility as for men, whereas for women the worst condition is represented by time-limited employment. This latter negative effect has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries.
Regarding pillar 2, the experimental approach allowed us test the effects of the narrative of economic uncertainty on fertility intentions. The team organized laboratory experiments in Italy and Norway and online experiments in Italy, Germany, United Kingdom, Norway and Poland. In brief, the results from laboratory and online experiments suggest that narratives of uncertain futures strongly affect fertility intentions.
Regarding pillar 3, we addressed some major questions.
1) Which uncertainty matters? We demonstrated that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions is shaped by the level of subjective well-being across European countries, and also housing uncertainty. In addition, we illustrated that time discounting preferences, a foreword looking personality traits linked to uncertainty, represent a determinant of fertility in Italy. Finally, we proposed an operational distinction between structural constraints and perceived uncertainty regarding the future, corroborating the vision that objective measures give only a partial (and possibly inaccurate) perspective: the spectre of the future is also highly significant.
2) Does persistent employment uncertainty play a role? Through the development of a persistent joblessness index, that simultaneously considers individual and contextual labour market conditions, we proved that disregarding the role of persistence in joblessness, underestimate the importance of individual-risk factors in fertility planning.
3) Are there gender-specific effects of economic uncertainty on fertility? Our results suggested a non-negligible causal impact of having a job with uncertain conditions on potential fertility postponement in Italy. For women, potential postponement was elevated among those with higher education, while for men potential postponement was especially visible among those with low and medium education.
4) What is the impact of the “Great Recession” on fertility? We showed that in Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the (traditional) recession indicators, whereas a clear positive association with fertility has been proved considering a new developed indicator which account for the economic context and economic complexity. We finally found that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty in Italy, which fuelled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future.
Overall, the EU-FER findings have been disseminated at several scientific and academic conferences, as well as at various meeting at local and national level. A dissemination activity on specific online newspapers has been implemented. Importantly, we established a collaboration with Professor Matysiak (PI of the ERC grant LABFER) integrating our ERC projects in the Horizon Results Booster, including an ad hoc video to promote and disseminate the findings of both projects combined. A final conference, where distinguished international experts have been invited, has been held at the in close proximity to the project's deadline.
