Periodic Reporting for period 3 - EU-FER (Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe)
Berichtszeitraum: 2020-09-01 bis 2022-02-28
EU-FER is a project about economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe. EU-FER argues that the increasing speed, dynamics, and volatility of economic outcomes from globalization, and the new wave of technological change, makes it increasingly difficult for individuals to imagine their future, choose between alternatives, and form strategies. This generates an extraordinary level of economic uncertainty, which, we argue, represents a game-changer in contemporary fertility dynamics.
After having concluded a meta-analysis of past empirical evidence on the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility (Aim 0), the overall objective of EU-FER is to generate new knowledge on if, how, and under what circumstances economic uncertainty matters for fertility in contemporary Europe, adopting a cross-country comparative approach. We want to assess how people make fertility plans under uncertain economic circumstances, recognizing their heterogeneity in perceiving and tolerating uncertainty (Aim 1). To this end, we are currently running laboratory and online experimentation in selected different settings in Europe. In addition, we aim to establish the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility in contemporary Europe from the life course perspective (Aim 2). To reach this objective, we are performing micro-level longitudinal research.
After having concluded a meta-analysis of past empirical evidence on the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility (Aim 0), the overall objective of EU-FER is to generate new knowledge on if, how, and under what circumstances economic uncertainty matters for fertility in contemporary Europe, adopting a cross-country comparative approach. We want to assess how people make fertility plans under uncertain economic circumstances, recognizing their heterogeneity in perceiving and tolerating uncertainty (Aim 1). To this end, we are currently running laboratory and online experimentation in selected different settings in Europe. In addition, we aim to establish the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility in contemporary Europe from the life course perspective (Aim 2). To reach this objective, we are performing micro-level longitudinal research.
From the beginning of the project, the EU-FER action was split into its three main pillars: a meta-analysis of prior research (pillar 1), cross-country experiments (pillar 2), micro-level analyses (pillar 3).
Regarding pillar 1, the action is nearly completed. We conducted a meta-analysis based on findings on the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility in European countries from the early 1970s to 2015. Our results suggest that employment uncertainty is detrimental for fertility. For men, being unemployed is more detrimental for fertility than having time-limited employment; for women, time-limited employment is the worst condition for fertility, while unemployment is often used as an opportunity window for having children.
Regarding pillar 2, during this first period, EU-FER researchers prepared the experiments from both a scientific and a logistic point of view. The laboratory experiments, carried out in Italy and Norway, have been concluded, and the research team is analysing the data. As for the online experiments, the COVID-19 pandemic necessarily imposed a stop. We expect to continue as soon as the emergency will be over.
Regarding pillar 3, the DoA identified four major sub-topics to be investigated. In what follows, I report the most important studies conducted within each sub-topic. Nonetheless, several of the following listed papers address more than one question/sub-topic. Within the sub-topics, as expected in the DoA, new and unexplored research perspectives stemming from the input derived from the outcomes of pillar 1 and 2 were also tested.
1) Which uncertainty matters? We suggested that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions depended on the level of subjective well-being across European countries. In addition, we found that owner occupiers and private renters have become more similar in terms of their likelihood of entering parenthood in recent years in Britain. Finally, we showed that the person-specific level of time discounting preference appeared very predictive of fertility in Italy.
2) Does persistent employment uncertainty play a role? We developed an index of persistent joblessness that simultaneously considers individual and contextual labour market conditions. With this study, we proved that disregarding the role of persistence in joblessness, scholars might underestimate the importance of individual-risk factors linked to labour market biographies in fertility planning.
3) Are there gender-specific effects of economic uncertainty on fertility? We conducted a study on the causal impact of entry into employment with uncertain conditions on the onset of the fertility process in Italy. For women, postponement was elevated among those with higher education, while for men postponement was especially visible among those with low and medium education.
4) What is the impact of the “Great Recession” on fertility? We investigated how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before, during and after the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-14. In addition, we analysed the relationship between a new developed indicator of the economic context, economic complexity, and fertility. Finally, we proved that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty in Italy, which fuelled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future.
Regarding pillar 1, the action is nearly completed. We conducted a meta-analysis based on findings on the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility in European countries from the early 1970s to 2015. Our results suggest that employment uncertainty is detrimental for fertility. For men, being unemployed is more detrimental for fertility than having time-limited employment; for women, time-limited employment is the worst condition for fertility, while unemployment is often used as an opportunity window for having children.
Regarding pillar 2, during this first period, EU-FER researchers prepared the experiments from both a scientific and a logistic point of view. The laboratory experiments, carried out in Italy and Norway, have been concluded, and the research team is analysing the data. As for the online experiments, the COVID-19 pandemic necessarily imposed a stop. We expect to continue as soon as the emergency will be over.
Regarding pillar 3, the DoA identified four major sub-topics to be investigated. In what follows, I report the most important studies conducted within each sub-topic. Nonetheless, several of the following listed papers address more than one question/sub-topic. Within the sub-topics, as expected in the DoA, new and unexplored research perspectives stemming from the input derived from the outcomes of pillar 1 and 2 were also tested.
1) Which uncertainty matters? We suggested that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions depended on the level of subjective well-being across European countries. In addition, we found that owner occupiers and private renters have become more similar in terms of their likelihood of entering parenthood in recent years in Britain. Finally, we showed that the person-specific level of time discounting preference appeared very predictive of fertility in Italy.
2) Does persistent employment uncertainty play a role? We developed an index of persistent joblessness that simultaneously considers individual and contextual labour market conditions. With this study, we proved that disregarding the role of persistence in joblessness, scholars might underestimate the importance of individual-risk factors linked to labour market biographies in fertility planning.
3) Are there gender-specific effects of economic uncertainty on fertility? We conducted a study on the causal impact of entry into employment with uncertain conditions on the onset of the fertility process in Italy. For women, postponement was elevated among those with higher education, while for men postponement was especially visible among those with low and medium education.
4) What is the impact of the “Great Recession” on fertility? We investigated how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before, during and after the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-14. In addition, we analysed the relationship between a new developed indicator of the economic context, economic complexity, and fertility. Finally, we proved that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty in Italy, which fuelled negative expectations and declining confidence about the future.
Regarding pillar 1, we offer a quantitative systematization of the available literature for Europe to the topic for the scientific community. From the statistical point of view, we pooled together the collected evidence in a network of comparison between unlimited time employment, time-limited employment and unemployment. This is the first implementation of a network meta-analysis in population studies.
Regarding pillar 2, the use of online and laboratory experimentation represents an innovation for demographers and population research. So far, fertility intentions research has primarily used surveys, which do not allow the manipulation of conditions. EU-FER opens up new outlooks in family demography research and brings breakthrough in understanding the fertility decision-making process.
Regarding pillar 3, the results of micro-level analyses conducted so far suggest that explanations for fertility decisions based on structural constraints—such as labour, housing condition, or income—may account for a substantial share of cross–country differences in fertility. Nevertheless, important questions remain unanswered. Until the end of the project, we will prove that the study of fertility decisions cannot disregard the condition of uncertainty in which they are taken and, especially, its future–oriented nature. This perspective, derived from the mixture of studies conducted in the pillar 3 of EU-FER, is novel in demographic research, and represents a clear advancement beyond the current state-of-the-art.
Altogether, combining results from pillars 1, 2 and 3 will contribute to go beyond the current state of knowledge on the drivers of fertility choices.
Regarding pillar 2, the use of online and laboratory experimentation represents an innovation for demographers and population research. So far, fertility intentions research has primarily used surveys, which do not allow the manipulation of conditions. EU-FER opens up new outlooks in family demography research and brings breakthrough in understanding the fertility decision-making process.
Regarding pillar 3, the results of micro-level analyses conducted so far suggest that explanations for fertility decisions based on structural constraints—such as labour, housing condition, or income—may account for a substantial share of cross–country differences in fertility. Nevertheless, important questions remain unanswered. Until the end of the project, we will prove that the study of fertility decisions cannot disregard the condition of uncertainty in which they are taken and, especially, its future–oriented nature. This perspective, derived from the mixture of studies conducted in the pillar 3 of EU-FER, is novel in demographic research, and represents a clear advancement beyond the current state-of-the-art.
Altogether, combining results from pillars 1, 2 and 3 will contribute to go beyond the current state of knowledge on the drivers of fertility choices.