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Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change

Project description

Trustworthy weather prediction in the Arctic

Climate change has a significant impact on the Arctic, necessitating reliable predictive capabilities for stakeholders. The EU-funded APPLICATE project aims to develop an inclusive framework that uses advanced metrics and diagnostics to observe and evaluate weather and climate models. This project will facilitate collaboration among scientists, research institutions, operational prediction centres, as well as experts in weather and climate prediction and forecast dissemination. APPLICATE will employ this framework to assess the performance of existing models and measure the project’s advancements. Emphasis will be on making substantial improvements to the models, focusing on factors known to influence weather and climate prediction, such as the atmospheric boundary layer (including clouds), atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling, and oceanic transports.


Arctic climate change increases the need of a growing number of stakeholders for trustworthy weather and climate predictions, both within the Arctic and beyond. APPLICATE will address this challenge and develop enhanced predictive capacity by bringing together scientists from academia, research institutions and operational prediction centres, including experts in weather and climate prediction and forecast dissemination. APPLICATE will develop a comprehensive framework for observationally constraining and assessing weather and climate models using advanced metrics and diagnostics. This framework will be used to establish the performance of existing models and measure the progress made within the project. APPLICATE will make significant model improvements, focusing on aspects that are known to play pivotal roles in both weather and climate prediction, namely: the atmospheric boundary layer including clouds; sea ice; snow; atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling; and oceanic transports. In addition to model developments, APPLICATE will enhance predictive capacity by contributing to the design of the future Arctic observing system and through improved forecast initialization techniques. The impact of Arctic climate change on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere through atmospheric and oceanic linkages will be determined by a comprehensive set of novel multi-model numerical experiments using both coupled and uncoupled ocean and atmosphere models. APPLICATE will develop strong user-engagement and dissemination activities, including pro-active engagement of end-users and the exploitation of modern methods for communication and dissemination. Knowledge-transfer will also benefit from the direct engagement of operational prediction centres in APPLICATE. The educational component of APPLICATE will be developed and implemented in collaboration with the Association of Early Career Polar Scientists (APECS).

Call for proposal


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Net EU contribution
€ 1 172 924,50
27570 Bremerhaven

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Bremen Bremen Bremerhaven, Kreisfreie Stadt
Activity type
Research Organisations
Total cost
€ 1 172 924,50

Participants (16)