Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change

Deliverables

Documents, reports (45)

Provision of guidance material and tools for effective data management

Guidance material (best practises) and tools enabling the partners to properly document and format their data in order to facilitate long term data preservation including life cycle management of data, data publication and data sharing

Report on the application of the fully coupled SCM to test cases based on Arctic YOPP IOPs

A number of test cases will be defined and run in coordinated SCM experiments with the aim to isolate errors in the representation of these parameterized processes and their influence on the surface energy fluxes. These will be designed based on existing past observations (e.g. SHEBA, AOE, ASCOS, ACSE, Eureka, Barrow and IAOOS buoys), LES cases and the coming intensive observing periods during YOPP

Provide report from US CLIVAR Working Group meeting including recommendations for adjustments to the WP3 part of the APPLICATE numerical experimentation plan

Agree on a joint clustering concept, including an agreement on coordinated numerical experimentation, at the next meeting of the US CLIVAR Working Group that is tentatively scheduled for 1-3 February 2017 in the US

Post Processing Environment

Set up of a dedicated post-processing environment to support analysis of multiple datasets and creation of new combined datasets.

Initial assessment of the added value of observations in existing long time-series datasets, also providing guidance for dedicated observing system experiments

Assessment of the added value of observations in existing datasets and that provides guidance for future reanalyses, but also for the numerical experiments to be performed in Task 4.2 and the YOPP experiment/reanalysis preparation works in Task 4.4.

Model assessment plan

Detailed plan that outlines the model assessment strategy of APPLICATE exploiting the concept of metrics and diagnostics, and utilizing comprehensive sets of observational data.

Recommendations for the design of the future Arctic observing system

Analysis of observational gaps and identification of shortcomings in current data assimilation methods and models limiting predictive skill from short/medium-to-seasonal time scales

Report on integrated added-value from APPLICATE on weather and climate prediction and projection

Evaluation of progress achieved within APPLICATE

Final report on coordinated multi-model assessment of seasonal to inter-annual impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes, including influence of background state and pattern of anomalies

Comprehensive synthesis report that summarizes the main finding regarding the impact of Arctic climate change on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere.

Draft clustering plan

Plan that details the clustering strategy and will be developed at the beginning of the project

Recommendations on the coupling methodology in prediction and climate models

Recommendations based on the experience gained in WP2 Task 2.2.1 from integrating the SCM-physics in the IFS

Report on the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on mid-latitude weather and climate and role for mid- latitude prediction

Influence of the Arctic atmosphere on mid-latitude weather and climate studied from a prediction perspective

First report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada

First report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada.

Report on coordinated coupled multi-model assessment of the seasonal to inter-annual impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes

Assessment of atmospheric and oceanic linkages on seasonal to inter-annual time scales

Report on individual impacts of improved process-representation, treatment of snow, ensemble generation and increased resolution on the weather and climate prediction performance

Assessment of the added value of various individual model developments (WP2) on the forecast quality on daily to seasonal time scales

Third report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada

Report on potential for emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in projections of Arctic climate and linkages to Northern Hemisphere circulation

Synthesis of the results on emergent constraints

Final evaluation of initialization experiments investigating the impact of novel observations in the coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system

Final report recommending the initialization strategy

Training plan

Plan defining all the training activities and their time of execution

Provide draft concept for a joint YOPP-APPLICATE summer school including a list of possible co- sponsors

Concept outlining the possibility for aligning the APPLICATE summer school with that planned for YOPP

Invite coordinators of relevant projects to the YOPP planning meetings

Invitation of all coordinators of existing activities and those known to have submitted related proposals to the International Coordination Office (ICO) for Polar Prediction.

Invite coordinators of BG-09 and other BG-10 projects to become members of external advisory board in APPLICATE

Coordinators of BG-09 and other BG-10 projects will be invited to become members of the external advisory board in APPLICATE

Second summary report of the stakeholder interaction activities

Second summary report of the stakeholder interaction activities including the list stakeholders reached, what feedback was received and for the benefit of which WP.

Start with the archiving and dissemination of YOPP Analysis and Forecast Dataset

YOPP Analysis and Forecast Dataset eventually containing two full years (mid 2017—mid 2019) that are aligned with the YOPP period

Evaluation of the contribution of the Arctic observing system to forecast skill from short/medium-to-seasonal time scales

Assessment of the numerical experimentation output from both idealized pseudo-observing system and actual data-denial experiments.

Report on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction systems

Summary of strengths and limitations of current forecasting systems

Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments including recommendations for model development activities in WP2

Baseline assessment for model developments in WP2 and inform the numerical experiments in WP3

Update the clustering plan to reflect specific clustering strategy with projects funded under H2020- BG09-2016 and BG10-2016

Development of a joint cooperation strategy and update of the clustering plan

Final assessment of the outcomes of the training experience

A report assessing the lessons learnt from summer school and online course will contribute to the improvement of these training tools into future APECS teaching strategy

Report on coordinated coupled multi-model assessment of the decadal and longer impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes

Impact of Arctic sea ice decline on longer time scales, especially for the ocean

Communication and dissemination plan

Full framework detailing target audiences, communication tools and channels, key messages and practical information such as branding project style, logo, guide, templates, etc.

Report on the impact of increased resolution on the simulated Arctic Ocean circulation and on Arctic-Atlantic and Arctic-Pacific oceanic linkages

Results from exploring the role of enhanced resolutions by using different methodologies (unstructures meshed, nesting, globally enhanced resolution) will be synthesized.

Data catalogue and services

Definition of output fields, the definition of data structures to accommodate this data, the definition of the data server layout, and the development of a suite that will reformat data into the YOPP convention, its archival in the ECMWF meteorological archiving system (MARS), and the establishment of a data catalogue on the data server

Synthesis on priorities for future model developments for coupled models

Synthesis report on priorities for future model developments in coupled models issued towards the end of the project

Report on the synthesis of heat budget approaches for the Arctic

Synthesis of the two heat budget approaches to inform about the mechanism determining Arctic climate variability and change.

Final report on model developments and their evaluation in coupled mode

Interim report, that includes aspects related to: (i) changes in the various components of the Arctic surface energy budget (radiative, turbulent); (ii) changes in the transfer of momentum from the atmosphere to the ocean; (iii) the overall realism of the simulated climate system; (iv) effects on the Arctic Ocean circulation; and (v) changes in the Arctic climate sensitivity in the +1%CO2 simulation.

Update the clustering plan to reflect specific joint clustering activities with projects funded under earlier H2020 and FP7 calls

Agreement on common clustering activities with other projects and update clustering plan accordingly

Interim evaluation of initialization experiments investigating the impact of novel observations in the coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system

Interim report recommending the initialization strategy to be used in WP5

First summary report of stakeholder interaction activities

First summary report of the stakeholder interaction activities including the list stakeholders reached, what feedback was received and for the benefit of which WP.

Second report on the content and extent of the joint activities with collaborators from the USA and Canada

User-engagement plan

Identification of key, primary and secondary stakeholders, their contact details and their level of use of weather and climate information, effective mechanisms for engaging users in the implementation of the project, Key performance indicators (KPI) for each mechanism, etc.

Recommendations on the inclusion of APPLICATE model enhancements in NWP models

Synthesis report based on the tests run with SCM and climate models, in which the inclusion in NWP systems of selected model enhancements developed during APPLICATE will be discussed. This report will guide dedicated tests carried on within WP5 with participating NWP systems.

Report on the growth of systematic model error across time scales

Synthesis of the understanding of the processes that lead to common model errors across time scales.

Synthesis report on priorities for future forecasting system development

Synthesis report to be published in a high-level journal

Report on coordinated atmosphere-only multi-model assessment of the seasonal to inter-annual impact of Arctic sea ice decline on lower latitudes

Assessment of the roles of atmospheric pathways and of ocean-atmosphere coupling

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (8)

Dissemination materials 5

Update/revision of material in D7.8

Dissemination materials 1

Material will be made available in different versions to accommodate to the various levels of experience in weather and climate and needs of those audiences. Materials will include: brochure, leaflets, roll-ups, factsheets etc.

Dissemination materials 4

Update/revision of material in D7.7

Website, incl. online tool for end-users feedback

A website will be designed to contain and offer the project description and its various outputs like public reports, general information, and news and dissemination material. The website will be initially set up to identify the project (providing visual identity materials and templates in a password protected partners area) and promote early engagement with other EU projects, international initiatives and communities

Launch of a web portal providing an overview of the project data catalouge

Devolment and launch of a web portal, which provides an overview of the projects data catalogue.

Dissemination materials 3

Update/revision of material in D7.6

Dissemination matrials 2

Update/revision of material in D7.5

Provision of all 30 FrostByte videos of APPLICATE and APECS websites

Provision of all 30 FrostByte videos on APPLICATE and APECS websites.

Other (2)

Provision of novel metrics, which can be effectively determined from short time series, through ESMValTool

Provision of process-focused, user-relevant and Arctic linkages metrics through ESMValTool

Open Research Data Pilot (1)

Data management plan

Data management plan providing a detailed outline of APPLICATE data management strategy, including technical details and time lines

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (3)

Simulation carried out with the models available at the end of APPLICATE (Task 5.4) and following the protocol described in Task 5.1, completed and made available within the consortium

Simulation carried out with the models available at the end of APPLICATE (Task 5.4) and following the protocol described in Task 5.1, completed and made available within the consortium.

Contributions to the SIPN activities through sea ice predictions produced with the forecast systems available at the end of APPLICATE

Contributions to the SIPN activities through sea ice predictions produced with the forecast systems available at the end of APPLICATE.

Demonstrator of a fully coupled SCM

A novel Single Column Model (SCM) framework will be developed. The SCM will extend from the deep ocean, include the sea ice and snow, and continue through the atmosphere.

Publications

Non-peer reviewed articles (4)

Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Arctic Ocean From a Global Simulation With a 1‐km Arctic

Author(s): Qiang Wang, Nikolay V. Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Claudia Wekerle, Patrick Scholz, Igor L. Bashmachnikov, Thomas Jung
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 47/14, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088550

ECMWF global coupled atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice dataset for the Year of Polar Prediction 2017–2020

Author(s): Peter Bauer, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Richard Mladek, Manuel Fuentes
Published in: Scientific Data, 7/1, 2020, ISSN 2052-4463
Publisher: ECMWF
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00765-y

Central Arctic weather forecasting: Confronting the ECMWF IFS with observations from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition

Author(s): Michael Tjernström, Gunilla Svensson, Linus Magnusson, Ian M. Brooks, John Prytherch, Jutta Vüllers, Gillian Young
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147/735, 2021, Page(s) 1278-1299, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3971

Training Early-Career Polar Weather and Climate Researchers

Author(s): Fiona Tummon, Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson
Published in: Eos, 99, 2018, ISSN 2324-9250
Publisher: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2018EO103475

Peer reviewed articles (47)

An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Author(s): Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, Klaus Wyser
Published in: The Cryosphere, 15/2, 2021, Page(s) 951-982, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-951-2021

An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

Author(s): Rubén Cruz-García, Pablo Ortega, Virginie Guemas, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, François Massonnet, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 56/5-6, 2021, Page(s) 1799-1813, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4

Two Leading Modes of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Recent Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Temperature Pattern

Author(s): Kunhui Ye, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Journal of Climate, 33/13, 2020, Page(s) 5565-5587, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0403.1

Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway

Author(s): Morten Køltzow, Barbara Casati, Thomas Haiden, Teresa Valkonen
Published in: Weather and Forecasting, 35/6, 2020, Page(s) 2279-2292, ISSN 0882-8156
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-20-0060.1

Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter

Author(s): Teresa Valkonen, Patrick Stoll, Yurii Batrak, Morten Køltzow, Thea Maria Schneider, Emmy E. Stigter, Ola B. Aashamar, Eivind Støylen, Marius O. Jonassen
Published in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 72/1, 2020, Page(s) 1-21, ISSN 1600-0870
Publisher: Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181

Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts

Author(s): Lauriane Batté, Ilona Välisuo, Matthieu Chevallier, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Pablo Ortega, Doug Smith
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 54/11-12, 2020, Page(s) 5013-5029, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

Author(s): Petteri Uotila, Hugues Goosse, Keith Haines, Matthieu Chevallier, Antoine Barthélemy, Clément Bricaud, Jim Carton, Neven Fučkar, Gilles Garric, Doroteaciro Iovino, Frank Kauker, Meri Korhonen, Vidar S. Lien, Marika Marnela, François Massonnet, Davi Mignac, K. Andrew Peterson, Remon Sadikni, Li Shi, Steffen Tietsche, Takahiro Toyoda, Jiping Xie, Zhaoru Zhang
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z

Predictability of Arctic sea ice on weather time scales

Author(s): M. Mohammadi-Aragh, H. F. Goessling, M. Losch, N. Hutter, T. Jung
Published in: Scientific Reports, 8/1, 2018, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24660-0

Growing Land-Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

Author(s): Jonathan J. Day, Kevin I. Hodges
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 45/8, 2018, Page(s) 3673-3681, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077587

Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes

Author(s): François Massonnet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Hugues Goosse, David Docquier, Thierry Fichefet, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 8/7, 2018, Page(s) 599-603, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0204-z

Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales

Author(s): Lorenzo Zampieri, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Jung
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 45/18, 2018, Page(s) 9731-9738, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079394

Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales

Author(s): Lorenzo Zampieri, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Jung
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 46/16, 2019, Page(s) 9719-9727, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084096

Induced surface fluxes: a new framework for attributing Arctic sea ice volume balance biases to specific model errors

Author(s): Alex West, Mat Collins, Ed Blockley, Jeff Ridley, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo
Published in: The Cryosphere, 13/7, 2019, Page(s) 2001-2022, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-2001-2019

Impact of a Multi‐Layer Snow Scheme on Near‐Surface Weather Forecasts

Author(s): Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Emanuel Dutra, Jonathan J. Day, Irina Sandu, Souhail Boussetta, Thomas Haiden
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11/12, 2019, Page(s) 4687-4710, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001725

How Strong Is Influence of the Tropics and Midlatitudes on the Arctic Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Change?

Author(s): Kunhui Ye, Thomas Jung
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 46/9, 2019, Page(s) 4942-4952, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082391

On the discretization of the ice thickness distribution in the NEMO3.6-LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model

Author(s): François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Clément Rousset, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 12/8, 2019, Page(s) 3745-3758, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019

December 2016: Linking the Lowest Arctic Sea-Ice Extent on Record with the Lowest European Precipitation Event on Record

Author(s): Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Pablo Ortega, Javier García-Serrano, Virginie Guemas, Etienne Tourigny, Rubén Cruz-García, François Massonnet, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100/1, 2019, Page(s) S43-S48, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0097.1

Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes

Author(s): Jonathan J. Day, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Mark J. Rodwell, Heather Lawrence, Niels Bormann, Thomas Jung
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145/725, 2019, Page(s) 3846-3862, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3673

An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1

Author(s): Morten Køltzow, Barbara Casati, Eric Bazile, Thomas Haiden, Teresa Valkonen
Published in: Weather and Forecasting, 34/4, 2019, Page(s) 959-983, ISSN 0882-8156
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0003.1

An Improved Double-Gaussian Closure for the Subgrid Vertical Velocity Probability Distribution Function

Author(s): A. C. Fitch
Published in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 76/1, 2019, Page(s) 285-304, ISSN 0022-4928
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-18-0149.1

Investigating future changes in the volume budget of the Arctic sea ice in a coupled climate model

Author(s): Ann Keen, Ed Blockley
Published in: The Cryosphere, 12/9, 2018, Page(s) 2855-2868, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-2855-2018

A probabilistic verification score for contours: Methodology and application to Arctic ice-edge forecasts

Author(s): H. F. Goessling, T. Jung
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144/712, 2018, Page(s) 735-743, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3242

Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations

Author(s): Ponsoni, Leandro; Massonnet, François; Docquier, David; Van Achter, Guillian; Fichefet, Thierry
Published in: The Cryosphere Discussions, 1, 2019, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2019-257

The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification

Author(s): Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, Xiangdong Zhang
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 12/3, 2019, Page(s) 1139-1164, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019

Fast EVP Solutions in a High‐Resolution Sea Ice Model

Author(s): Nikolay V. Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Nils Hutter, Martin Losch, Helge Goessling, Natalja Rakowsky, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sein, Qiang Wang, Thomas Jung
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11/5, 2019, Page(s) 1269-1284, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001485

Programming as a soft skill for project managers: How to have a computer take over some of your work

Author(s): Nikolay V. Koldunov, Luisa Cristini
Published in: Advances in Geosciences, 45, 2018, Page(s) 295-303, ISSN 1680-7359
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-45-295-2018

Preface to the special issue: Towards improving understanding and prediction of Arctic change and its linkage with Eurasian mid-latitude weather and climate

Author(s): Xiangdong Zhang, Thomas Jung, Muyin Wang, Yong Luo, Tido Semmler, Andrew Orr
Published in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35/1, 2018, Page(s) 1-4, ISSN 0256-1530
Publisher: Chinese Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-7004-7

Snow in the changing sea-ice systems

Author(s): Webster, Melinda; Gerland, Sebastian; Holland, Marika; Hunke, Elizabeth; Kwok, Ron; Lecomte, Olivier; Massom, Robert; Perovich, Don; Sturm, Matthew
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 1, 2018, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3565645

Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO$$_2$$2-induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1

Author(s): Thomas Oudar, Julien Cattiaux, Hervé Douville, Olivier Geoffroy, David Saint-Martin, Romain Roehrig
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 54/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 2267-2285, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05113-4

Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness

Author(s): Edward W. Blockley, K. Andrew Peterson
Published in: The Cryosphere, 12/11, 2018, Page(s) 3419-3438, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018

Atmospheric Response to Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: The Importance of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling and the Background State

Author(s): Doug M. Smith, Nick J. Dunstone, Adam A. Scaife, Emma K. Fiedler, Dan Copsey, Steven C. Hardiman
Published in: Journal of Climate, 30/12, 2017, Page(s) 4547-4565, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0564.1

Project and Community Management in Polar Sciences – Challenges and Opportunities

Author(s): Kirstin Werner, Yulia Zaika, Alexey K. Pavlov, Sven Lidström, Allen Pope, Renuka Badhe, Marlen Brückner, Luisa Cristini
Published in: Advances in Geosciences, 46, 2019, Page(s) 25-43, ISSN 1680-7359
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-46-25-2019

The Influences of the Arctic Troposphere on the Midlatitude Climate Variability and the Recent Eurasian Cooling

Author(s): Kunhui Ye, Thomas Jung, Tido Semmler
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123/18, 2018, Page(s) 10,162-10,184, ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028980

Influence of a Salt Plume Parameterization in a Coupled Climate Model

Author(s): D. Sidorenko, N. V. Koldunov, Q. Wang, S. Danilov, H. F. Goessling, O. Gurses, P. Scholz, D. V. Sein, E. Volodin, C. Wekerle, T. Jung
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10/9, 2018, Page(s) 2357-2373, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001291

An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean

Author(s): Rubén Cruz-García, Virginie Guemas, Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 53/1-2, 2019, Page(s) 427-440, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6

Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport

Author(s): David Docquier, Jeremy P. Grist, Malcolm J. Roberts, Christopher D. Roberts, Tido Semmler, Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dmitry V. Sein, Doroteaciro Iovino, Alessio Bellucci, Thierry Fichefet
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 53/7-8, 2019, Page(s) 4989-5017, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04840-y

Evaluation of FESOM2.0 Coupled to ECHAM6.3: Preindustrial and HighResMIP Simulations

Author(s): D. Sidorenko, H.F. Goessling, N.V. Koldunov, P. Scholz, S. Danilov, D. Barbi, W. Cabos, O. Gurses, S. Harig, C. Hinrichs, S. Juricke, G. Lohmann, M. Losch, L. Mu, T. Rackow, N. Rakowsky, D. Sein, T. Semmler, X. Shi, C. Stepanek, J. Streffing, Q. Wang, C. Wekerle, H. Yang, T. Jung
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11/11, 2019, Page(s) 3794-3815, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001696

On the timescales and length scales of the Arctic sea ice thickness anomalies: a study based on 14 reanalyses

Author(s): Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Matthieu Chevallier, David Docquier
Published in: The Cryosphere, 13/2, 2019, Page(s) 521-543, ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-521-2019

The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

Author(s): M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, C. Senior, H. T. Hewitt, C. Bates, S. Berthou, P. Chang, H. M. Christensen, S. Danilov, M.-E. Demory, S. M. Griffies, R. Haarsma, T. Jung, G. Martin, S. Minobe, T. Ringler, M. Satoh, R. Schiemann, E. Scoccimarro, G. Stephens, M. F. Wehner
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99/11, 2018, Page(s) 2341-2359, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-15-00320.1

Climate Models as Guidance for the Design of Observing Systems: the Case of Polar Climate and Sea Ice Prediction

Author(s): François Massonnet
Published in: Current Climate Change Reports, 5/4, 2019, Page(s) 334-344, ISSN 2198-6061
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-019-00151-w

An EC-Earth coupled atmosphere–ocean single-column model (AOSCM.v1_EC-Earth3) for studying coupled marine and polar processes

Author(s): Kerstin Hartung, Gunilla Svensson, Hamish Struthers, Anna-Lena Deppenmeier, Wilco Hazeleger
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 11/10, 2018, Page(s) 4117-4137, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018

ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks

Author(s): Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès D
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 11/12, 2018, Page(s) 5027-5049, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018

Evaluation of a Microwave Emissivity Module for Snow Covered Area with CMEM in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System

Author(s): Yoichi Hirahara, Patricia de Rosnay, Gabriele Arduini
Published in: Remote Sensing, 12/18, 2020, Page(s) 2946, ISSN 2072-4292
Publisher: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
DOI: 10.3390/rs12182946

North Pacific zonal wind response to sea ice loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and its downstream implications

Author(s): Bryn Ronalds, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Rosie Eade, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 55/7-8, 2020, Page(s) 1779-1792, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05352-w

Measuring the Impact of a New Snow Model Using Surface Energy Budget Process Relationships

Author(s): Jonathan J. Day, Gabriele Arduini, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Anton Beljaars, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Mark Rodwell, David Richardson
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12/12, 2020, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002144

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Author(s): Dirk Notz, SIMIP Community
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086749

Using Arctic ice mass balance buoys for evaluation of modelled ice energy fluxes

Author(s): Alex West, Mat Collins, Ed Blockley
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 13/10, 2020, Page(s) 4845-4868, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020

Other (8)

Exchange grid & multi-ice categories coupling: comparison of two flux computation strategies

Author(s): Maisonnave Eric; Voldoire Aurore
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: CNRM-Météo-France
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3480080

Monthly mean variables derived from Arctic Ice Mass Balance Buoy data, for evaluation of sea ice models

Author(s): West, A. E.
Published in: 1, 2020
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3773997

Exchange grid: implementation of a test configuration to evaluate fluxes modification

Author(s): Maisonnave E.; Voldoire A.
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: Centre national de recherches météorologique
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3480075

Website, including online tool for end-user feedback

Author(s): Jóhannsson, Halldór
Published in: 1, 2016
Publisher: Arctic Portal
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1249563

Is Svalbard prepared for extreme rainfall?

Author(s): Terrado, Marta; Bojovic, Dragana; Acosta, Juan; Magnusson, Linus; Køltzow, Morten; Jung, Thomas
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3560164

How does Arctic sea ice affect energy production in mid-latitudes?

Author(s): Terrado, Marta; Bojovic, Dragana; Isadora Christel; Acosta, Juan; Ortega, Pablo; Donat, Marcus; Llorenç Lledó; Soret, Albert; Jóhannsson, Halldór; Jung, Thomas
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3560148

HOW DID ARCTIC SEA ICE AFFECT ENERGY PRODUCTION IN EUROPE IN 2018?

Author(s): Octenjak, Sara; Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; López Martí, Ferran; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta, Juan; Donar, Markus; Torralba, Veronica
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3567616

An Assessment of the use of observations in the Arctic at ECMWF

Author(s): Lawrence, Heather; Goddard, Jacky; Sandu, Irina; Bormann, Niels; Bauer, Peter; Magnusson, L.
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: ECMWF
DOI: 10.21957/exlwb4o04

Conference proceedings (20)

Decadal Variability & Trends with a focus on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Author(s): Eade, Rosie
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: Met Office

Sensitivity of two melt pond schemes to the uncertainties in atmospheric reanalyses for global climate models

Author(s): Sterlin, Jean; Fichefet, Thierry; Massonnet, François; Lecomte, Olivier; Vancoppenolle, Martin
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545438

Atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice decline: results from PAMIP experiments

Author(s): Msadek Rym; Chripko Svenya; Sanchez-Gomez Emilia; Terray Laurent
Published in: 1, 2021
Publisher: AGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4531290

Grounded sea ice and tensile strength Landfast ice formation in climate models

Author(s): Sterlin, Jean; Huot, Pierre-Vincent; Chevallier, Mathieu; Massonnet, François; Fichefet, Thierry
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545536

Making advanced predictions in the Arctic and beyond: developments and results of the APPLICATE project

Author(s): Massonnet, François
Published in: 1, 2020
Publisher: AGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4536992

From twitting to training: a communication approach to adapt to a changing Arctic climate

Author(s): Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; Christel, Isadora; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Johannsson, Halldor; Fugmann, Gerlis; Cristini, Luisa
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: BSC
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1289796

Consistent boreal winter forecast skill in current (non-CMIP6) climate prediction systems on seasonal scales

Author(s): Juan Camilo Acosta
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: BSC
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3244886

Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability

Author(s): Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Hunter, Alasdair; Guemas, Virginie; Ortega, Pablo; García-Serrano, Javier; Tourigny, Etienne; Cruz-García, Rubén; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: BSC
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3560614

A changing Arctic - dialogues from the North

Author(s): Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; Christel, Isadora; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier; Jóhannsson, Halldór; Cristini, Luisa; Jung, Thomas
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: University of Cape Town
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2590955

Engaging, Involving And Empowering: Triple Approach To Stakeholders' Collaboration On The Production Of Enhanced Arctic Climate Prediction

Author(s): Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; Johannsson, Halldor; Cristini, Luisa; Christel, Isadora; Fugmann, Gerlis; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: Arctic Frontiers
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1289797

An anatomy of the forecast errors in a seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

Author(s): Cruz-García, Rubén; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: Unknown
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3567552

Using numerical models to design the future of Arctic observing system: insights from the APPLICATE Project

Author(s): François, Massonnet; Irina, Sandu
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: YOPP Arctic Science Workshop
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2540485

The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project PAMIP – Emerging Results and Lessons Learned

Author(s): Semmler, Tido; Jung, Thomas; Streffing, Jan
Published in: 1, 2020
Publisher: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3694317

A multi-system evaluation of predictive capacity over the Arctic and mid-latitudes at the seasonal time scale

Author(s): Batté, Lauriane; Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Chevallier, Matthieu; Ortega, Pablo; Smith, Doug
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: S2S/S2D International conferences
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3459628

Advanced prediction in the Arctic and beyond: Half way into the APPLICATE project

Author(s): Ortega, Pablo; Cristini, Luisa; APPLICATE Consortium
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: "2nd EU Climate Modelling ""Workshop on Climate Prediction in the Atlantic-Arctic sector"""
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3565531

Influence of Atmospheric and Oceanic Model Resolution on Volume and Heat Transports through Arctic Gateways in Coupled Climate Simulations

Author(s): Hinrichs, Claudia; Sein, Dmitry; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: YOPP Arctic Science Workshop
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3245829

How well are Arctic precipitation predicted (and observed)? Flash-poster

Author(s): Køltzow, Morten
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: Arctic Earth System Modelling workshop
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3565685

Arctic airmass transformation case explored using an Atmosphere-Ocean SCM

Author(s): Svensson, Gunilla; Hartung, Kerstin
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: Stockholm University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1291635

Role of atmospheric reanalyses and melt ponds for global ocean circulation models

Author(s): Sterlin, Jean; Fichefet, Thierry; Massonnet, François; Lecomte, Olivier; Vancoppenolle, Martin
Published in: 1, 2019
Publisher: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545556

Importance of deformed ice in polar regions for climate models

Author(s): Sterlin, Jean; Fichefet, Thierry; Massonnet, François; Raulier, Jonathan; Barthelemy, Antoine; Tournay, Félicien
Published in: 1, 2018
Publisher: UCLouvain
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4545426