Objective In 2015, the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate recognised the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system in the Anthropocene. Maintaining Earth in the interglacial state that enabled the world’s societies to evolve over the past 12,000 years will require industrialised societies to embark on global-scale social transformations. Otherwise, there is a real risk of crossing tipping points in the Earth system triggering abrupt and irreversible changes. A critical gap is that although nonlinear social and biophysical dynamics are recognized, we remain trapped in linear thinking. Global modelling and analyses – despite much progress – do not adequately represent nonlinear processes and abrupt changes, and social responses to sustainable development are incremental.The goal of this project is to fill this gap, by exploring the biophysical and social determinants of the Earth’s long-term stability, building up a novel community modelling platform for analysis of nonlinearity and abrupt shifts, and informing global sustainability policy processes. The project will investigate two hypotheses: 1) Interactions, feedbacks and tipping points in the biosphere could, even in the absence of continued high emissions from fossil-fuel burning, tip Earth into a new state, committing to global warming over 2C and possibly beyond 4C; and 2) Only nonlinear societal transformations that aggregate to the global scale can assure long-term stability of the Earth and keep it in a manageable interglacial state. The five research tasks are Task 1: analysis of nonlinear biosphere dynamics governing Earth resilience. Task 2: integrating nonlinear dynamics in World-Earth models. Task 3: exploring tipping points in social systems for large-scale transformation. Task 4: backcasting pathways for achieving the SDGs. Task 5: integrating World-Earth dynamics into online learning and virtual-reality games, e.g. Planet3 and Minecraft. Fields of science natural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomyplanetary sciencesplanetsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologybiospheranatural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystemsnatural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationsvirtual realitynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programme(s) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Topic(s) ERC-2016-ADG - ERC Advanced Grant Call for proposal ERC-2016-ADG See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant Coordinator STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET Net EU contribution € 2 222 267,75 Address Universitetsvagen 10 10691 Stockholm Sweden See on map Region Östra Sverige Stockholm Stockholms län Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00 Beneficiaries (2) Sort alphabetically Sort by Net EU contribution Expand all Collapse all STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET Sweden Net EU contribution € 2 222 267,75 Address Universitetsvagen 10 10691 Stockholm See on map Region Östra Sverige Stockholm Stockholms län Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00 POTSDAM-INSTITUT FUR KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG EV Germany Net EU contribution € 270 566,25 Address Telegrafenberg a31 14473 Potsdam See on map Region Brandenburg Brandenburg Potsdam Activity type Research Organisations Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Other funding € 0,00
