Periodic Reporting for period 4 - ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene (ERA)Integrating non-linear biophysical and social determinantsof Earth-system stability for global sustainabilitythrough a novel community modelling platform)
Reporting period: 2022-04-01 to 2024-03-31
The ERC-funded project Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene (ERA) has tackled gaps in the scientific treatment of nonlinear processes and disruptive changes at planetary scale. The interactions and feedbacks of physical climate and the living biosphere – including human societies – often show tipping point behaviour, but these complex Earth system dynamics are very challenging to model and analyse. It is vitally important for the world’s societies to take these dynamics into account. Crossing Earth system tipping points could trigger abrupt and irreversible changes in climate and its impacts, even within the carbon budgets calculated with mainstream models. Similarly, understanding and working with societal transformations that can scale up rapidly is important for assuring Earth’s environmental stability.
ERA’s explorations of biophysical and social determinants of Earth’s long-term stability underpin novel modelling and analysis of complex social-ecological behaviour, and also inform global sustainability decision-making about resilient responses to Earth's new Anthropocene conditions. ERA’s research is important for wider society because global environmental problems are already urgent. Global sustainable development goals that only look a few years ahead may not be enough to provide resilience to the world's societies and ecosystems out to 2050 and beyond. ERA's emphasis on linking current understanding of the human world and the biophysical Earth is exploring sustainable pathways into the future, and informing the scientific basis for setting targets for action by decision-makers in business, policy and civil society.
ERA has met its several objectives:
- Advancing an Earth system modelling-based ‘planetary boundaries simulator’
- Improving the quantifications of planetary boundaries and mapping risks of biosphere tipping points for different Earth system trajectories
- Developing the ERA community platform for World-Earth modelling
- Assessing the potential of global sustainability transformation through social tipping points for maintaining Earth in a manageable interglacial state
- Producing scenarios and Earth resilience indicators for a world within Earth's safe operating space
- Providing timely inputs of science to key international stakeholders in global sustainability policy and business action
- Embedding ERA science in society through impactful engagement platforms
ERA’s explorations of biophysical and social determinants of Earth’s long-term stability underpin novel modelling and analysis of complex social-ecological behaviour, and also inform global sustainability decision-making about resilient responses to Earth's new Anthropocene conditions. ERA’s research is important for wider society because global environmental problems are already urgent. Global sustainable development goals that only look a few years ahead may not be enough to provide resilience to the world's societies and ecosystems out to 2050 and beyond. ERA's emphasis on linking current understanding of the human world and the biophysical Earth is exploring sustainable pathways into the future, and informing the scientific basis for setting targets for action by decision-makers in business, policy and civil society.
ERA has met its several objectives:
- Advancing an Earth system modelling-based ‘planetary boundaries simulator’
- Improving the quantifications of planetary boundaries and mapping risks of biosphere tipping points for different Earth system trajectories
- Developing the ERA community platform for World-Earth modelling
- Assessing the potential of global sustainability transformation through social tipping points for maintaining Earth in a manageable interglacial state
- Producing scenarios and Earth resilience indicators for a world within Earth's safe operating space
- Providing timely inputs of science to key international stakeholders in global sustainability policy and business action
- Embedding ERA science in society through impactful engagement platforms
In ERA’s main work-strands:
Earth Resilience: Researchers characterised thresholds and nonlinear dynamics of interactions of climate, land biomes and the hydrological system. This enriched the scientific basis of the planetary boundaries framework, with comprehensive process quantification and spatial mapping, operationalised in different geographic contexts. This work shows how complex biophysical interactions may undermine the world's best efforts to achieve sustainability.
World-Earth Modelling: The COPAN:core framework for coevolutionary social-ecological systems modelling is fully operational, applied in new international integrated modelling projects. Various stylized models were also developed to explore specific systemic interactions.
Social Tipping Points for Sustainability: The first systematic assessment of what it takes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries, published as a popular science report, was presented to the UN High-Level Political Forum. Candidate global transitions were mapped through expert elicitation of social tipping points.
The Safe Operating Space for Humanity: The assessment of biophysical tipping points determining Anthropocene stability explored society’s options for avoiding ‘Hothouse Earth’ and maintaining ‘Stabilized Earth’. Key tipping points have been quantitatively assessed at different levels of global warming. Global sustainability risks have been re-conceptualised, highlighting the urgency of concerted action.
Translating Science for Society: scientific insights about the complexity of our planet have been channelled into co-learning experiences that engage many different groups in society, through popular science publications, social media resources, TED talks, and not least, synergistic opportunities for multi-actor coalitions driving global sustainability transformations.
Over 120 peer-reviewed ERA articles have been published so far including highly-cited papers in Science, Nature and PNAS. ERA team members contributed over 30 international conference presentations, and convened a well-regarded series of Earth Resilience sessions at annual European Geosciences Union General Assemblies. Seven project meetings (annually since December 2017; with scientific advisory group participation), two conferences (2019, 2024) and eight other international research workshops were convened. ERA established an impactful international network, active in Future Earth’s global research networks, including the Global Land Programme, AIMES and IHOPE, and with a vibrant ongoing program of workshops and research exchanges. ERA’s core team underpins a formal partnership between the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, with key links to Australian National University (Anthropocene dynamics); Arizona State and Utrecht Universities (coupled/integrated modelling) and Exeter, Princeton and Wageningen Universities (complex systems, Earth system analysis).
Earth resilience insights are being provided to prominent stakeholder platforms, notably via the Future Earth-convened Earth Commission and the wider network of the Global Commons Alliance, which engage actively with global sustainable business platforms; also the newly formed Global Commission on the Economics of Water, and the PB Science Initiative. Johan Rockström, ERA’s PI, has high international visibility at influential events. ERA’s impactful dissemination includes presentations to world business and policy leaders at the Davos World Economic Forum, UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties, the High-Level Political Forum for the 2030 Agenda (with Club of Rome and The World in 2050), and various science-policy-business engagements in Sweden, Germany, New Zealand and elsewhere. These events have all led to opportunities for applying the planetary boundaries framework and Earth Resilience assessment ideas at national and sectoral levels.
Earth Resilience: Researchers characterised thresholds and nonlinear dynamics of interactions of climate, land biomes and the hydrological system. This enriched the scientific basis of the planetary boundaries framework, with comprehensive process quantification and spatial mapping, operationalised in different geographic contexts. This work shows how complex biophysical interactions may undermine the world's best efforts to achieve sustainability.
World-Earth Modelling: The COPAN:core framework for coevolutionary social-ecological systems modelling is fully operational, applied in new international integrated modelling projects. Various stylized models were also developed to explore specific systemic interactions.
Social Tipping Points for Sustainability: The first systematic assessment of what it takes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries, published as a popular science report, was presented to the UN High-Level Political Forum. Candidate global transitions were mapped through expert elicitation of social tipping points.
The Safe Operating Space for Humanity: The assessment of biophysical tipping points determining Anthropocene stability explored society’s options for avoiding ‘Hothouse Earth’ and maintaining ‘Stabilized Earth’. Key tipping points have been quantitatively assessed at different levels of global warming. Global sustainability risks have been re-conceptualised, highlighting the urgency of concerted action.
Translating Science for Society: scientific insights about the complexity of our planet have been channelled into co-learning experiences that engage many different groups in society, through popular science publications, social media resources, TED talks, and not least, synergistic opportunities for multi-actor coalitions driving global sustainability transformations.
Over 120 peer-reviewed ERA articles have been published so far including highly-cited papers in Science, Nature and PNAS. ERA team members contributed over 30 international conference presentations, and convened a well-regarded series of Earth Resilience sessions at annual European Geosciences Union General Assemblies. Seven project meetings (annually since December 2017; with scientific advisory group participation), two conferences (2019, 2024) and eight other international research workshops were convened. ERA established an impactful international network, active in Future Earth’s global research networks, including the Global Land Programme, AIMES and IHOPE, and with a vibrant ongoing program of workshops and research exchanges. ERA’s core team underpins a formal partnership between the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, with key links to Australian National University (Anthropocene dynamics); Arizona State and Utrecht Universities (coupled/integrated modelling) and Exeter, Princeton and Wageningen Universities (complex systems, Earth system analysis).
Earth resilience insights are being provided to prominent stakeholder platforms, notably via the Future Earth-convened Earth Commission and the wider network of the Global Commons Alliance, which engage actively with global sustainable business platforms; also the newly formed Global Commission on the Economics of Water, and the PB Science Initiative. Johan Rockström, ERA’s PI, has high international visibility at influential events. ERA’s impactful dissemination includes presentations to world business and policy leaders at the Davos World Economic Forum, UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties, the High-Level Political Forum for the 2030 Agenda (with Club of Rome and The World in 2050), and various science-policy-business engagements in Sweden, Germany, New Zealand and elsewhere. These events have all led to opportunities for applying the planetary boundaries framework and Earth Resilience assessment ideas at national and sectoral levels.
ERA has manifestly shifted scientific and societal discourses about tipping points and global sustainability. It has catalysed research constellations that bridge Earth system analysis, integrated assessment and novel coevolutionary social-ecological systems modelling. The ERA community platform for World-Earth modelling (based on the Potsdam Earth Sytem Model POEM) integrates non-linearity in global modelling. Global change research communities are using ERA’s novel conceptualisation of Earth Resilience, and ERA methods for characterising Earth resilience, mapping biosphere tipping points, and assessing boundaries of humanity’s ‘safe operating space’. These concepts inform decision-making approaches for science-based targets and trajectories towards deep decarbonisation and transformative sustainability. Examples of science-policy-practice co-generation of knowledge are ERA’s continued inputs to the UN High Level Political Forum for SDGs, the EAT-Lancet Commission’s work on food, environment and health, and the business and finance sector.