Periodic Reporting for period 3 - ENERGYA (ENERGY use for Adaptation)
Período documentado: 2021-03-01 hasta 2022-08-31
ENERGYA will improve our understanding of how energy and energy services can be used by households and industries to adapt to the risk posed by climate change.
Specifically, the project will develop an interdisciplinary and scalable research framework integrating data and methods from economics with geography, climate science, and integrated assessment modelling to provide new knowledge concerning heterogeneity in energy use across countries, sectors, socioeconomic conditions and income groups, and assess the broad implications adaptation-driven energy use can have on the economy, the environment, and welfare.
Given the central role of energy as multiplier for socioeconomic development and as enabling condition for climate resilience, the research proposed in ENERGYA will result in timely insights for the transition towards sustainability described by the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations as well as the Paris International Climate Agreement.
ENERGYA has three main objectives. First, it will produce novel statistical and econometric analyses for OECD and major emerging countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, and Indonesia) to shed light on the underlying mechanisms driving energy use. Second, it will infer future potential impacts from long-run climate and socioeconomic changes building on historical empirical evidence. Third, it will analyse the macro and distributional implications of adaptation-driven energy use with an economy-energy model characterising the distribution of energy use dynamics across and within countries.
Specifically, the project will develop an interdisciplinary and scalable research framework integrating data and methods from economics with geography, climate science, and integrated assessment modelling to provide new knowledge concerning heterogeneity in energy use across countries, sectors, socioeconomic conditions and income groups, and assess the broad implications adaptation-driven energy use can have on the economy, the environment, and welfare.
Given the central role of energy as multiplier for socioeconomic development and as enabling condition for climate resilience, the research proposed in ENERGYA will result in timely insights for the transition towards sustainability described by the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations as well as the Paris International Climate Agreement.
ENERGYA has three main objectives. First, it will produce novel statistical and econometric analyses for OECD and major emerging countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, and Indonesia) to shed light on the underlying mechanisms driving energy use. Second, it will infer future potential impacts from long-run climate and socioeconomic changes building on historical empirical evidence. Third, it will analyse the macro and distributional implications of adaptation-driven energy use with an economy-energy model characterising the distribution of energy use dynamics across and within countries.
The firs period has beed dedicated to the following activities:
1. Preparing a coordinated visual identity of the project (logo, template for power point presentations, WP5).
2. Designing and launching the project website www.energy-a.eu. as information platform and repository for sharing innovative research and outputs of the project.
3. Preparing the first draft of the Data Management Plan.
4. Collecting and processing energy statistics for different countries, specifically from the OECD EPIC database and the ENERDATA databases (Odyssee and Enerdemand) for OECD and European countries (WP1).
5. Collecting and processing household survey data for the four countries, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico in collaboration with the country experts (WP1).
6. Collecting and processing climate data (WP1). Different sources have been used. Historical data are from Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2). Future data are from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset, the two datasets that have also been indicated in the DMP. This activity required significant computing power and storage capacity, and it was possible thank to the collaboration with Boston University and Fondazione CMCC. Both institutes have powerful computing facilities which enabling the processing of big climate data, mitigating Risk 2, as both resources could be used.
7. Defining the meteorological variables, including indicators of changes in mean climate conditions as well as in extreme weather events to be used as explanatory variables in the econometric analysis of WP2. A first paper descring 71 extreme events has been published, and the database has been made open access, see http://www.energy-a.eu/71-climate-extreme-indices-in-1-dataset/. Selected Climate indices have then been merged with the energy data at country level (from ENERDATA) as well as at regional, subnational level (selected OECD countries, plus 4 focus countries)
8. Preparing a database gathering data from different sources across the four countries of interest (WP1, M1.1). Gathering data from different countries and sources and process them in a consistent way turned out to be more labor-intensive than expected. In order not to delay the project workflow, and additional researcher has been hired in order to assist with the data collection and cleaning process. Having this additional resource has made it possible to submit two papers that contribute to D2.1 D2.2 and D3.1.
9. First empirical analyses for the OECD countries (WP2, D2.1 D2.2) one published, see http://www.energy-a.eu/air-conditioning-and-thermal-insulation-choices-till-2040/ and one submitted
10. First set of adaptation projections for the adoption of air conditioning and thermal insulation, WP3, D3.1
11. Developing a framework for evaluating the implications of energy use for adaptation. This task is using the economic models developed by Fondazione CMCC (WP4, D4.1 4.2). This work is still in progress and is expected to last until the end of the project. While in the Annex I it was scheduled to start at month 25, the work has started earlier (Month 13) because I realized it was important to coordinate this phase of the research with the first two phases on data collection and empirical analysis, in order to make the workflow consistent and feasible, in particular with respect to the data availability.
12. Writing an article where the concept of energy use for adaptation has been defined. The article has been published, see http://www.energy-a.eu/sustainability-of-energy-for-adaptation/.
Significant effort has been allocated to dissemination and communication activities, as foreseen in WP5. Targeted visualizations have been produced in order to disseminate and communicate the content of our research, please see the website for examples. Press release and actions have been undertaken, and our results have been communicated across different countries, in different languages. Just to give one example, the article that was published in June 2019 in Nature Communication (Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10399-3/metrics ) has appeared in more than 40 outlets (newspapers, magazines, website, see http://www.energy-a.eu/the-weather-is-not-the-climate-but/). Dissemination and communication activites have been implemented in collaboration with a communication expert, who also prepared the communication plan.
1. Preparing a coordinated visual identity of the project (logo, template for power point presentations, WP5).
2. Designing and launching the project website www.energy-a.eu. as information platform and repository for sharing innovative research and outputs of the project.
3. Preparing the first draft of the Data Management Plan.
4. Collecting and processing energy statistics for different countries, specifically from the OECD EPIC database and the ENERDATA databases (Odyssee and Enerdemand) for OECD and European countries (WP1).
5. Collecting and processing household survey data for the four countries, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico in collaboration with the country experts (WP1).
6. Collecting and processing climate data (WP1). Different sources have been used. Historical data are from Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2). Future data are from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset, the two datasets that have also been indicated in the DMP. This activity required significant computing power and storage capacity, and it was possible thank to the collaboration with Boston University and Fondazione CMCC. Both institutes have powerful computing facilities which enabling the processing of big climate data, mitigating Risk 2, as both resources could be used.
7. Defining the meteorological variables, including indicators of changes in mean climate conditions as well as in extreme weather events to be used as explanatory variables in the econometric analysis of WP2. A first paper descring 71 extreme events has been published, and the database has been made open access, see http://www.energy-a.eu/71-climate-extreme-indices-in-1-dataset/. Selected Climate indices have then been merged with the energy data at country level (from ENERDATA) as well as at regional, subnational level (selected OECD countries, plus 4 focus countries)
8. Preparing a database gathering data from different sources across the four countries of interest (WP1, M1.1). Gathering data from different countries and sources and process them in a consistent way turned out to be more labor-intensive than expected. In order not to delay the project workflow, and additional researcher has been hired in order to assist with the data collection and cleaning process. Having this additional resource has made it possible to submit two papers that contribute to D2.1 D2.2 and D3.1.
9. First empirical analyses for the OECD countries (WP2, D2.1 D2.2) one published, see http://www.energy-a.eu/air-conditioning-and-thermal-insulation-choices-till-2040/ and one submitted
10. First set of adaptation projections for the adoption of air conditioning and thermal insulation, WP3, D3.1
11. Developing a framework for evaluating the implications of energy use for adaptation. This task is using the economic models developed by Fondazione CMCC (WP4, D4.1 4.2). This work is still in progress and is expected to last until the end of the project. While in the Annex I it was scheduled to start at month 25, the work has started earlier (Month 13) because I realized it was important to coordinate this phase of the research with the first two phases on data collection and empirical analysis, in order to make the workflow consistent and feasible, in particular with respect to the data availability.
12. Writing an article where the concept of energy use for adaptation has been defined. The article has been published, see http://www.energy-a.eu/sustainability-of-energy-for-adaptation/.
Significant effort has been allocated to dissemination and communication activities, as foreseen in WP5. Targeted visualizations have been produced in order to disseminate and communicate the content of our research, please see the website for examples. Press release and actions have been undertaken, and our results have been communicated across different countries, in different languages. Just to give one example, the article that was published in June 2019 in Nature Communication (Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10399-3/metrics ) has appeared in more than 40 outlets (newspapers, magazines, website, see http://www.energy-a.eu/the-weather-is-not-the-climate-but/). Dissemination and communication activites have been implemented in collaboration with a communication expert, who also prepared the communication plan.
ENERGYA will:
1. Characterize the heterogeneous response of energy services and fuel demand that can be used for adaptation across different countries, sectors, across levels of socioeconomic development and income groups.
2. Develop a flexible framework capable of portraying the energy needs that will be required under a broad range of scenarios.
3. Develop an economy-energy multi-region computable general equilibrium model (CGE) with a micro-level representation of households’ income and consumption patterns
1. Characterize the heterogeneous response of energy services and fuel demand that can be used for adaptation across different countries, sectors, across levels of socioeconomic development and income groups.
2. Develop a flexible framework capable of portraying the energy needs that will be required under a broad range of scenarios.
3. Develop an economy-energy multi-region computable general equilibrium model (CGE) with a micro-level representation of households’ income and consumption patterns