Periodic Reporting for period 4 - CIVICS (Criminality, Victimization and Social Interactions)
Période du rapport: 2022-09-01 au 2023-09-30
This project will push the research frontier by combining register datasets that have never been linked before, and by using several state-of-the-art statistical methods to estimate causal effects related to criminal peer groups and their victims. Specifically, we aim to:
-Use recent advances in network modelling to describe the structure and density of various criminal networks and study network dynamics after the arrest/incarceration or death of a central player in the network.
-Obtain a more accurate measure of the societal costs of crime, including actual measures of lost earnings, physical and mental health problems, following victims and their offenders before and after a crime takes place.
-Conduct a randomized control trial within the prison system to better understand how current rehabilitation programs affect criminal and victim networks.
The conclusions of the project
For the first objective we have been working on two separate papers that advance our understanding of criminal networks. The first paper “Criminal networks” (Bhuller, Dahl, Mogstad and Løken) shows that after the incarceration of a central player in a network, the network members reduce their criminal activity. The effect is driven by the closest network members. This paper illustrates that the benefits of rehabilitation in prisons extend beyond the focal prisoner and have implications for designing cost-benefit analysis of different prison systems. The second paper, “Peer Effects in Prison” (Johnsen and Khoury), studies peer effects within prisons. They look more specifically at the question of how to reduce recidivism and criminal network formation through changing the composition of inmates. This is directly policy relevant as policy makers can decide on how to design their prisons.
For the second objective we have been making large advances providing the first comprehensive mapping of the total costs of victimizations. In the paper “Surviving a Mass Shooting” (Bharadwaj, Løken, and Wentzel) we show that the survivors of a mass shooting in Norway suffer long term consequences on both health, educational and labor market outcomes. Their closest family members are also negatively affected. While the event affected the entire country, we show that survivors and their families bear significant additional costs despite robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In the paper “Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children” (Bhuller, Dahl, Løken and Mogstad) we show that both victims and their children experience negative consequences on a range of measures of their well-being following a domestic violence (DV) report. Again, we find the costs of victimization to be substantial even in a country with robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In the paper “Formal Child Care and Later-in-Life Delinquency” (Wentzel) looks at costs of crime from a different angle, measuring the importance of investing in formal child care for future crime prevention. Across three different child care reforms, affecting different age groups and different children but holding the institutional setting fixed, she finds that formal child care reduces crime. The effect is driven by men from lower socioeconomic background.
We have advanced our understanding on how health care is an important part of the rehabilitation component for prisoners. In the paper “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing” (Bhuller, Khoury and Løken) we show that rehabilitation-oriented sentencing can improve defendants’ mental health conditions. We find that these effects are persistent and unlikely driven by shifts in health-care demand. We interpret these findings in light of the rehabilitative focus of the Norwegian correctional system.
-Use recent advances in network modelling to describe the structure and density of various criminal networks and study network dynamics after the arrest/incarceration or death of a central player in the network.
-Obtain a more accurate measure of the societal costs of crime, including actual measures of lost earnings, physical and mental health problems, following victims and their offenders before and after a crime takes place.
-Conduct a randomized control trial within the prison system to better understand how current rehabilitation programs affect criminal and victim networks.
The conclusions of the project
For the first objective we have been working on two separate papers that advance our understanding of criminal networks. The first paper “Criminal networks” (Bhuller, Dahl, Mogstad and Løken) shows that after the incarceration of a central player in a network, the network members reduce their criminal activity. The effect is driven by the closest network members. This paper illustrates that the benefits of rehabilitation in prisons extend beyond the focal prisoner and have implications for designing cost-benefit analysis of different prison systems. The second paper, “Peer Effects in Prison” (Johnsen and Khoury), studies peer effects within prisons. They look more specifically at the question of how to reduce recidivism and criminal network formation through changing the composition of inmates. This is directly policy relevant as policy makers can decide on how to design their prisons.
For the second objective we have been making large advances providing the first comprehensive mapping of the total costs of victimizations. In the paper “Surviving a Mass Shooting” (Bharadwaj, Løken, and Wentzel) we show that the survivors of a mass shooting in Norway suffer long term consequences on both health, educational and labor market outcomes. Their closest family members are also negatively affected. While the event affected the entire country, we show that survivors and their families bear significant additional costs despite robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In the paper “Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children” (Bhuller, Dahl, Løken and Mogstad) we show that both victims and their children experience negative consequences on a range of measures of their well-being following a domestic violence (DV) report. Again, we find the costs of victimization to be substantial even in a country with robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In the paper “Formal Child Care and Later-in-Life Delinquency” (Wentzel) looks at costs of crime from a different angle, measuring the importance of investing in formal child care for future crime prevention. Across three different child care reforms, affecting different age groups and different children but holding the institutional setting fixed, she finds that formal child care reduces crime. The effect is driven by men from lower socioeconomic background.
We have advanced our understanding on how health care is an important part of the rehabilitation component for prisoners. In the paper “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing” (Bhuller, Khoury and Løken) we show that rehabilitation-oriented sentencing can improve defendants’ mental health conditions. We find that these effects are persistent and unlikely driven by shifts in health-care demand. We interpret these findings in light of the rehabilitative focus of the Norwegian correctional system.
During the first year all approvals for the data that was used in the project were obtained, including new approvals for health data (GP visits and related diagnoses) that we had not had prior access to.
By the end of the grant we have published two papers, “Surviving a Mass Shooting” authored by Bharadwaj, Bhuller, Løken and Wentzel. This paper is at the Journal of Public Economics and uploaded in the portal. The other one, “Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children” (Bhuller, Dahl, Løken and Mogstad), is forthcoming in Journal of Human Resources. In addition the paper “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing” (Bhuller, Khoury and Løken) is conditionally accepted in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
In addition Mirjam Wentzel, the PhD student on the project defended her thesis on december 15th 2021.Her sole authored job market paper is “Child Care and Youth Delinquency”. Laura Khoury, the postdoc on the project has one paper on "Spillovers of Prison" joint with Julian Johnsen.
I have a collaboration with the edma - european dissemination media agency, writing three articles (+ one forthcoming) featured in their project repository. I have also written a column for VOX EU.
All the work has been presented at several conferences, workshops and invited seminars. Both Wentzel and Khoury got extensive feedback on flyouts as they had their Job Market papers on topics within the project. Løken has also written several op-ed columns in Norwegian on different sub-projects.
By the end of the grant we have published two papers, “Surviving a Mass Shooting” authored by Bharadwaj, Bhuller, Løken and Wentzel. This paper is at the Journal of Public Economics and uploaded in the portal. The other one, “Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children” (Bhuller, Dahl, Løken and Mogstad), is forthcoming in Journal of Human Resources. In addition the paper “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing” (Bhuller, Khoury and Løken) is conditionally accepted in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
In addition Mirjam Wentzel, the PhD student on the project defended her thesis on december 15th 2021.Her sole authored job market paper is “Child Care and Youth Delinquency”. Laura Khoury, the postdoc on the project has one paper on "Spillovers of Prison" joint with Julian Johnsen.
I have a collaboration with the edma - european dissemination media agency, writing three articles (+ one forthcoming) featured in their project repository. I have also written a column for VOX EU.
All the work has been presented at several conferences, workshops and invited seminars. Both Wentzel and Khoury got extensive feedback on flyouts as they had their Job Market papers on topics within the project. Løken has also written several op-ed columns in Norwegian on different sub-projects.
The three most significant achievements
1: “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing”, conditional acceptance in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Why: Our work is a proof of concept that rehabilitation with an emphasize on mental health in the correctional system can have important long-term benefits for the offenders. In an ideal world, investments should be targeted in preventing the crime in the first place. However, given that this is not feasible, it is possible to also invest in preventing future crimes and health care costs by extensive rehabilitation efforts through the correctional system. We show that the benefits of fewer crimes and lower health costs outweigh the costs of the correctional rehabilitation programs.
2: “Surviving a Mass Shooting”, published in Journal of Public Economics, 2021 and Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children, forthcoming in Journal of Human Resources
Why: In both these papers we show that those impacted by a victimization episode (mass shooting and domestic violence) and their families bear significant costs despite robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In many other countries, with lower levels of benefits through the welfare systems, the costs are likely even bigger. The costs of victimization episodes are so large that policy makers should invest more in crime prevention and support to victims to lower these costs, even in a high welfare country as Norway.
3: “Peer Effects in Prison”, Working Paper, 2023
Why: This paper is the first to documents that exposure to more experienced co-inmates increases recidivism after prison. This is directly policy relevant as policy makers can decide on how to design their prisons and should pay more attention to the optimal mix of inmates.
1: “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing”, conditional acceptance in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Why: Our work is a proof of concept that rehabilitation with an emphasize on mental health in the correctional system can have important long-term benefits for the offenders. In an ideal world, investments should be targeted in preventing the crime in the first place. However, given that this is not feasible, it is possible to also invest in preventing future crimes and health care costs by extensive rehabilitation efforts through the correctional system. We show that the benefits of fewer crimes and lower health costs outweigh the costs of the correctional rehabilitation programs.
2: “Surviving a Mass Shooting”, published in Journal of Public Economics, 2021 and Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children, forthcoming in Journal of Human Resources
Why: In both these papers we show that those impacted by a victimization episode (mass shooting and domestic violence) and their families bear significant costs despite robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In many other countries, with lower levels of benefits through the welfare systems, the costs are likely even bigger. The costs of victimization episodes are so large that policy makers should invest more in crime prevention and support to victims to lower these costs, even in a high welfare country as Norway.
3: “Peer Effects in Prison”, Working Paper, 2023
Why: This paper is the first to documents that exposure to more experienced co-inmates increases recidivism after prison. This is directly policy relevant as policy makers can decide on how to design their prisons and should pay more attention to the optimal mix of inmates.