This project will push the research frontier by combining register datasets that have never been linked before, and by using several state-of-the-art statistical methods to estimate causal effects related to criminal peer groups and their victims. Specifically, we aim to:
-Use recent advances in network modelling to describe the structure and density of various criminal networks and study network dynamics after the arrest/incarceration or death of a central player in the network.
-Obtain a more accurate measure of the societal costs of crime, including actual measures of lost earnings, physical and mental health problems, following victims and their offenders before and after a crime takes place.
-Conduct a randomized control trial within the prison system to better understand how current rehabilitation programs affect criminal and victim networks.
The conclusions of the project
For the first objective we have been working on two separate papers that advance our understanding of criminal networks. The first paper “Criminal networks” (Bhuller, Dahl, Mogstad and Løken) shows that after the incarceration of a central player in a network, the network members reduce their criminal activity. The effect is driven by the closest network members. This paper illustrates that the benefits of rehabilitation in prisons extend beyond the focal prisoner and have implications for designing cost-benefit analysis of different prison systems. The second paper, “Peer Effects in Prison” (Johnsen and Khoury), studies peer effects within prisons. They look more specifically at the question of how to reduce recidivism and criminal network formation through changing the composition of inmates. This is directly policy relevant as policy makers can decide on how to design their prisons.
For the second objective we have been making large advances providing the first comprehensive mapping of the total costs of victimizations. In the paper “Surviving a Mass Shooting” (Bharadwaj, Løken, and Wentzel) we show that the survivors of a mass shooting in Norway suffer long term consequences on both health, educational and labor market outcomes. Their closest family members are also negatively affected. While the event affected the entire country, we show that survivors and their families bear significant additional costs despite robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In the paper “Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children” (Bhuller, Dahl, Løken and Mogstad) we show that both victims and their children experience negative consequences on a range of measures of their well-being following a domestic violence (DV) report. Again, we find the costs of victimization to be substantial even in a country with robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. In the paper “Formal Child Care and Later-in-Life Delinquency” (Wentzel) looks at costs of crime from a different angle, measuring the importance of investing in formal child care for future crime prevention. Across three different child care reforms, affecting different age groups and different children but holding the institutional setting fixed, she finds that formal child care reduces crime. The effect is driven by men from lower socioeconomic background.
We have advanced our understanding on how health care is an important part of the rehabilitation component for prisoners. In the paper “Mental Health Consequences of Correctional Sentencing” (Bhuller, Khoury and Løken) we show that rehabilitation-oriented sentencing can improve defendants’ mental health conditions. We find that these effects are persistent and unlikely driven by shifts in health-care demand. We interpret these findings in light of the rehabilitative focus of the Norwegian correctional system.
