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DownScaling CLImate imPACTs and decarbonisation pathways in EU islands, and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and beyond.

Livrables

Report on big data analysis

This report will summarise the data retrieved by the big data analysis and its relations with the four Blue Economy sectors selected.

Report on Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios

Simulation results on Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change in the context of the Islands´Economy sectors, and considering non-market indicators will be delivered as a report with anexes, which will be possible thanks to the integration of GEM-E3 and GINFORS models. This will be obtained at the end of this WP.

Draft Island Reports for stakeholder engagement

This is a result of Task 7.2. The reports will include results from all previous WPs, classified per island and will serve as background material for the islands' workshops. An updated version will be submitted on Month 33 once all modelling phases have finished

Conceptual framework

Report addressing of the delimitation of objectives for this WP and the assessment. This will allow consistent implementation of subsequent activities avoiding conflicts resulting from subjectivity or miss-interpretations of researchers when assessing actual policies.

Report on the bibliography

Report listing already generated economic values from Climate Change impacts in the 4 selected Blue Economy sectors.

Final Conference Report.

Partners plan to organise the final conference of the project, as part of the dissemination plan, with an open debate between partners and other relevant stakeholder about the results and main outputs of the project. In this conference, partners will invite High Level EC representatives.

Final Island Reports

Report per each island case study containing the final package (matrix) of ranked tailored adaptation pathways and mainstream of adaptation policies at multiple scales and the monitoring plan and blue economy sector indicators.

Report on existing simulations and observations, and on the derived impact indicators and indices.

This report will summarize all climatic data found for the eleven islands considered in the project , together with the available relevant global and regional simulations reproducing the present climate. This report will also include the methodological framework for the post-processing analyses, and compute the environmental indexes and indicators needed by other WPs.

Report on flood risk, storm surge risk, potential fire behaviour, the evolution of beaches, seagrass density

D4.4a Report on solar and wind energy for different scenarios and different time horizons Impact models driven by regional projections and environmental indexes will be synthetized in geographical maps. D4.4b Report on storm surge level for different scenarios and different time horizons Impact models driven by regional projections and environmental indexes will be synthetized in geographical maps. D4.4c Report on potential fire danger and behaviour (e.g. burn probability (BP), expected burned areas (FS), conditional flame length (CFL), fire emissions (FE) under climate change scenarios Impact models driven by regional projections and environmental indexes will be synthetized in geographical maps. D4.4d Report on the evolution of beaches in selected case studies for different scenarios and different time horizons Impact models driven by regional projections and environmental indexes will be synthetized in geographical maps. D4.4e Report on estimated seagrass density under climate change and impacts on the related ecosystem services. Impact models driven by regional projections and environmental indexes will be synthetized in geographical maps.

Synergies and Networking Reports with annexes

Due Date: 19;35 At least 2 meetings are planned to promote and exchange the outputs of the projects with other EU projects and initiatives of the same topic. These meetings will take place upon request of the European Commission or by our own initiative. This will permit to identify opportunities of collaboration, new agreements and workshops or research streams. The results will be included in the meeting reports and Collaboration Agreements, Seminar Agendas, presentations slides, etc. will be delivered as annexes.

Transfer impact analysis

List of transfer functions (causality and consequentiality) per sector and per island.

Report on market and non-market economic values for environmental services of marine and coastal ecosystems related to the activities of the blue economy

This is an integrated report on economic values that is relevant for the activities of the Blue Economy, which will have been obtained through non-market valuation methods and big data analysis.

Report on selected indicators

This report will describe the indicators for climate change vulnerability and impact assessment in islands according to sectors.

Report on modelling chains

This report will compile the different validated modelling chains which will serve as a base for the work of the subsequent WPs.

Updated Database of Islands: Methodological framework

This is a report describing the methodological approach for the construction of missing datasets and the final updated database obtained from Task 6.1 This task will collect all the necessary data (Input-Output (IO) tables) and associated data for the rest of the islands, which will be computed in socio economic modelling GEM E3· and GINFOPRS.

Report on impact chains, with annexes per island and per sector.

This is a Diagram (tool), delivered on month 8th, which synthetizes the relationships between different climate shocks, ecosystem services and economic activities under study.

Design of a comprehensive approach to climate and climate-related risk information to policy makers and general public.

Design of a comprehensive approach to climate and climate-related risk information to policy makers and the general public. This is an informative report of each examined climate impact, designed to address policy makers. This deliverable results from Task 4.6

Guide for a Common framework of collaborative governance of Blue Economy sectors

This deliverable will result from task 7.5, which is focused on the elaboration of specifications for a common framework for the participative governance of blue economy sectors. This is a public guide that will serve as a basis for future networking and exchange of information beyond the project lifetime, which will mainly take place on the Regional Exchange Information Platform (REIS).

Atlases of newly developed indexes and indicators

It consists in Informative geographical maps (tools) incorporating all the information obtained with newly developed indexes and indicators to estimate climate-related vulnerabilities for the islands of interest, under different climate scenarios.

Macroeconomic outlook for the islands´ economic systems and pre testing simulations

This is a database of macroeconomic and other relevant projections resulting from Task 6.2. The up-to-date projections will be based on the latest available published information and on information from local and sectoral experts. The projections involve the Blue growth and other major sectors under study, capital markets and sectorial investments. This database will be improved according to the first simulations results.

Validated Matrix on Blue Economy sectors lead, boundaries, and statistical codes, per island focal point.

This is a result from Task 3.1, in which partners will delimitate the blue economy sectors, specific activities, and the impact chains under study

Workshops reports

This is a result of Tasks 7.3. This deliverable will include the agendas, the list of participants, and the workshops reports including the decisions taken.

High resolution wave and sea level climatology atlas.

It consists in Informative geographical maps (tools) and is resulting from Task 4.2. After collecting datasets with the available relevant global and regional simulations, this atlas will reflect the acquisition of scenarios bias-corrected using local data.

Launch and management of the Soclimpact website

The website of the project will be available on month 7th but the partners plan periodic updating. The advances will be delivered as annexes joint to the IIAM audit. It includes Logo, identity brand, presentation slides, promotional banners, and printed communication tools (flyers, posters, diptych, etc.) for communication and dissemination activities. The results of these actions will also be uploaded on the website.

REIS platform and Decision-making support tool.

Following the creation of a common framework for the governance of Blue Economy sectors (WP7), partners will develop a technological platform, named Regional Exchange Information System (REIS), which will be integrated in the project’s website, and in which scientists will be able to provide inputs for Climate Change policies in EU Blue Economy sectors, and in which policy makers will be able to exchange ideas and see successful cases of decarbonization/mitigation strategies implemented in EU islands, even beyond the project. An online decision-making support tool will be integrated into the platform, supporting decision-makers in accessing specific results of the project, as well as tools and resources to develop and implement adaptation strategies, according to the specific situation of their territory. An updated version of the deliverable will be submitted on January 2021 (M38).

Publications

Measuring destination image: a novel approach based on visual data mining. A methodological proposal and an application to European islands

Auteurs: Anastasia Arabadzhyan, Paolo Figini, Laura Vici
Publié dans: Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, Issue 20, 2021, Page(s) 100611, ISSN 2212-571X
Éditeur: Elsevier Limited
DOI: 10.1016/j.jdmm.2021.100611

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts: Innovation and Improvement of the Local Urban Plan for a Climate-Proof Adaptation Strategy

Auteurs: Carmela Mariano, Marsia Marino, Giovanna Pisacane, Gianmaria Sannino
Publié dans: Sustainability, Issue 13/3, 2021, Page(s) 1565, ISSN 2071-1050
Éditeur: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su13031565

Pinpointing the Barriers to Recycling at Destination

Auteurs: Gonzalo Díaz-Meneses, Neringa Vilkaite-Vaitone
Publié dans: Sustainability, Issue 12/7, 2020, Page(s) 2635, ISSN 2071-1050
Éditeur: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su12072635

Temporal evolution of temperatures in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden based on in situ observations (1958–2017)

Auteurs: Miguel Agulles, Gabriel Jordà, Burt Jones, Susana Agustí, Carlos M. Duarte
Publié dans: Ocean Science, Issue 16/1, 2020, Page(s) 149-166, ISSN 1812-0792
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-16-149-2020

Evolución futura de los ciclones con características tropicales en la Cuenca Mediterránea: efectos de utilizar modelos de alta resolución o con acoplamiento atmósfera-océano.

Auteurs: Jesús Gutiérrez Fernández, Juan Jesús González Alemán, Miguel Ángel Gaertner
Publié dans: Acta de las Jornadas Científicas de la Asociación Meteorológica Española, Issue 1/35, 2018, ISSN 2605-2202
Éditeur: Asociación Meteorológica Española
DOI: 10.30859/amejrcn35p451

Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Resources in the Canary Islands and Adjacent Regions

Auteurs: Claudia Gutiérrez, Alba de la Vara, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Miguel Ángel Gaertner
Publié dans: Sustainability, Issue 13/8, 2021, Page(s) 4104, ISSN 2071-1050
Éditeur: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su13084104

Intercomparison Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Indicators on the Mediterranean Islands

Auteurs: Alba de la Vara, Claudia Gutiérrez, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Miguel Ángel Gaertner
Publié dans: Atmosphere, Issue 11/10, 2020, Page(s) 1036, ISSN 2073-4433
Éditeur: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos11101036

The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies on the Mediterranean Sea coast

Auteurs: Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, Marco Reale
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 19/7, 2019, Page(s) 1541-1564, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus publication
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019

Added Value of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling in a Century-Long Regional Climate Simulation

Auteurs: Fanni Dóra Kelemen, Cristina Primo, Hendrik Feldmann, Bodo Ahrens
Publié dans: Atmosphere, Issue 10/9, 2019, Page(s) 537, ISSN 2073-4433
Éditeur: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090537

A regional atmosphere-ocean climate system model (CCLMv5.0clm7-NEMOv3.3-NEMOv3.6) over Europe including three marginal seas: on its stability and performance.

Auteurs: Primo, C., F.D. Kelemen, H. Feldmann, B. Ahrens (GUF)
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, 2019, ISSN 1991-959X
Éditeur: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH

Impact of aerosols on the spatiotemporal variability of photovoltaic energy production in the Euro-Mediterranean area

Auteurs: Claudia Gutiérrez (UCLM); Miguel Angel Gaertner (UCLM)
Publié dans: Solar Energy, 2018, ISSN 0038-092X
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.

Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols

Auteurs: C Gutiérrez, S Somot, P Nabat, M Mallet, L Corre, E van Meijgaard, O Perpiñán, M Á Gaertner
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 15/3, 2020, Page(s) 034035, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6666

Impact of aerosols on the spatiotemporal variability of photovoltaic energy production in the Euro-Mediterranean area

Auteurs: Claudia Gutiérrez, Samuel Somot, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Oscar Perpiñán
Publié dans: Solar Energy, Issue 174, 2018, Page(s) 1142-1152, ISSN 0038-092X
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2018.09.085

A regional atmosphere–ocean climate system model (CCLMv5.0clm7-NEMOv3.3-NEMOv3.6) over Europe including three marginal seas: on its stability and performance

Auteurs: Cristina Primo, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hendrik Feldmann, Naveed Akhtar, Bodo Ahrens
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 12/12, 2019, Page(s) 5077-5095, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus (EGU-Geoscientific Model Development)
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019

Understanding the Heterogeneity of Tourists’ Choices under Climate Change Risks: A Segmentation Analysis

Auteurs: Yen. E. Lam-González, Carmen García Galindo, Matías M. González Hernández, Carmelo J. León
Publié dans: Atmosphere, Issue 12/1, 2021, Page(s) 22, ISSN 2073-4433
Éditeur: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12010022

Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life

Auteurs: Gabriel Jorda, Núria Marbà, Scott Bennett, Julia Santana-Garcon, Susana Agusti, Carlos M. Duarte
Publié dans: Nature Ecology & Evolution, Issue 4/1, 2020, Page(s) 109-114, ISSN 2397-334X
Éditeur: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-1058-0

Climate change, coastal tourism, and impact chains – a literature review

Auteurs: Anastasia Arabadzhyan, Paolo Figini, Carmen García, Matías M. González, Yen E. Lam-González, Carmelo J. León
Publié dans: Current Issues in Tourism, 2020, Page(s) 1-36, ISSN 1368-3500
Éditeur: Channel View Publications
DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2020.1825351

Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios

Auteurs: Andreina Belušić Vozila, Ivan Güttler, Bodo Ahrens, Anika Obermann-Hellhund, Maja Telišman Prtenjak
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 124/1, 2019, Page(s) 110-130, ISSN 2169-897X
Éditeur: AGU-Advancing Earth and SpaceScience
DOI: 10.1029/2018jd028552

Effect of Model Resolution on Intense and Extreme Precipitationinthe Mediterranean Region

Auteurs: Dario Conte, Silvio Gualdi, Piero Lionello
Publié dans: Atmosphere, Issue 11/7, 2020, Page(s) 699, ISSN 2073-4433
Éditeur: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos11070699

Measuring the Impact of Infectious Diseases on Tourists’ Willingness to Pay to Visit Island Destinations

Auteurs: Carmelo J. León, Yen E. Lam-González, Carmen García Galindo, Matías M. González Hernández
Publié dans: Atmosphere, Issue 11/10, 2020, Page(s) 1117, ISSN 2073-4433
Éditeur: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos11101117

Islands' best practices as a benchmark for climate action

Auteurs: Leon et al (2021)
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4817928

The effect of coupled marginal seas on precipitation extremes and heat waves in 20th century CCLM simulation

Auteurs: Cristina Primo, Fanni Dora Kelemen, Anika Obermann, Bodo Ahrens Goethe-University Frankfurt
Publié dans: CLM-Assembly 2018 Conference proceedings, p.20, 2018
Éditeur: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
DOI: 10.5445/ir/1000090889

Future evolution of cyclones with tropical characteristics in the Mediterranean basin: effect of atmosphere-ocean coupling high resolution

Auteurs: Gutierrez-Fernandez, Jesús; Jesús Gonzalez-Aleman, Juanje; Gaertner, Miguel Angel
Publié dans: 20th EGU General Assembly, EGU2018, Proceedings from the conference held 4-13 April, 2018 in Vienna, Austria, p.625, 2018
Éditeur: Geophysical Research Abstracts
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4772382

Sea level variability in marginal seas from CMIP simulations. Strengths, weaknesses and ways to solve them.

Auteurs: Jorda, G.
Publié dans: CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop Abstracts Book., 2019
Éditeur: CMIP6 Model Analysis

Climate Change Impact Chains across the Environment and the Economy in Coastal and MarineDestinations

Auteurs: Anastasia Arabadzhyan, Paolo Figini, Carmen García, Matías M. González, Yen E. Lam-González, Carmelo J. León
Publié dans: TOURISCAPE 2 Transversal Tourism and Landscape International Scientific Conference Barcelona, 5th-6th November 2020, 2020, ISBN 978-84-9880-855-1
Éditeur: UPCommons
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4778440

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE AQUACULTURE SECTOR FOR EUROPEAN ISLANDS

Auteurs: Lena Schenke*, Kyra Hoevenaars and Tamás Bardócz
Publié dans: ClimRisk2020, 2020, Page(s) 49, ISBN 978-88-97666-16-5
Éditeur: Italian Society for the Climate Sciences - SISC

Is climate change effect on probability of rainfall over the Mediterranean region depending on model resolution?

Auteurs: Conte, Dario; Lionello, Piero
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Abstracts . 2019, Vol. 21, p1-1. 1p., 2019
Éditeur: Geophysical Research Abstracts
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4775806

Impact of aerosols on PV power projections over Europe.

Auteurs: Gutiérrez, Claudia; Somot, Samuel; Nabat, Pierre; Mallet, Marc; Gaertner, Miguel Ángel; Perpiñán, Oscar
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019
Éditeur: Geophysical Research Abstracts
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4772405

Mediterranean hurricane activity potentially become more hazardous with global warming

Auteurs: Jesús González-Alemán, Juan; Pascale, Salvatore; Gutiérrez-Fernández, Jesús; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Ángel Gaertner, Miguel; Vecchi, Gabriel
Publié dans: 21st EGU General Assembly, EGU2019, Proceedings from the conference held 7-12 April, 2019 in Vienna, Austria, id.994, 2019
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4775664

Impacts of aerosols on photovoltaic energy production in the Euro-Mediterranean area

Auteurs: Gutiérrez, Claudia; Somot, Samuel; Nabat, Pierre; Mallet, Marc; Ángel Gaertner, Miguel; Perpiñán, Oscar
Publié dans: 20th EGU General Assembly, EGU2018, Proceedings from the conference held 4-13 April, 2018 in Vienna, Austria, p.788, Issue Abstracts (Vol. 20, p. 788), 2018
Éditeur: Geophysical Research Abstracts (EGU)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4778415

Factors affecting the structural evolution and predictability of the tropical transition of Hurricane Alex (2016)

Auteurs: Jesús González-Alemán, Juan; Evans, Jenni L.; Kowaleski, Alex M.; Ángel Gaertner, Miguel Abstract
Publié dans: 20th EGU General Assembly, EGU2018, Proceedings from the conference held 4-13 April, 2018 in Vienna, Austria, p.475, 2018
Éditeur: Geophysical Research Abstracts (EGU)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4775542

The impact of climate change risk of beach loss on tourist behaviour: a review

Auteurs: Carmen García; Matias M. González; Yen E. Lam González; Carmelo J. León
Publié dans: VII Foro Internacional de Turismo, Maspalomas, Costa Canaria, 2019, ISBN 978-84-9042-360-8
Éditeur: Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, servicio de publicaciones y divulgación científica
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4778437

The Climate Change and Whale Watching activity

Auteurs: Andreia G. Sousa
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Universidade Lisboa

Downscaling climate change impacts, socio-economic implications and alternative adaptation pathways for Islands and Outermost Regions

Auteurs: Carmelo J. León, Yen E. Lam González, Matias M. González Hernández, Carmen García Galindo, Javier de León Ledesma, Fernando Tuya, Casiano Manrique , Chaitanya Suarez Rojas, Jorge Araña (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, ULPGC); Salvador Suárez, Lidia Ramos Pérez, Tomás Cambreleng, Santiago Díaz Ruano & Vanessa Hernández (Intituto Tecnológico de Canarias S.A., ITC); Gabriel Jo
Publié dans: 2021, ISBN 9780008502966
Éditeur: McGraw Hill

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