Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for Energy

Deliverables

Documents, reports (17)

Benchmarking skill assessment of current sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the users’ selected case studies

Provide a first vision of the potential application of S2S climate predictions for decision-making by using current sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the users’ selected case studies.

Documentary on the DST

Description of the Documentary that explains the motivation, purpose and market potential of the DST.

Assessment of policies and recommendations

Assessment of possible policy interventions to enhance the economic value of S2S predictions.

User needs and decision-making processes that can benefit from S2S forecasts

Revision of user needs and current practices that can benefit from S2S forecast.

Summary report on the impact of dissemination, communication and user engagement activities

Report on the impact of dissemination, communication and user engagement activities.

Impact and assessment of weather regimes and relevant modes of variability on the energy sector

Assessment of the ability of S2S systems to simulate and predict the weather regimes and relevant modes of variability focussing on impacts on the energy sector.

Final Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP).

Final version of the Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP).

Validation of observational datasets and recommendations to energy users on the choice of observational/reanalysis products

Assessment of available datasets building a knowledge-base about their characteristics and limitations for energy related proposes.

Economic gains from using S2S forecasts in energy producers’ decision-making by analysing relevant case studies

Economic assessment of the value of S2S forecast in energy-decision making by analysing relevant case studies.

Final Stakeholder Event

Summary and analysis of the event.

Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP)

Plan of the Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement activities.

Update of Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP)

Update of Communication, Dissemination and User Engagement Plan (CDUEP) which include the outcomes achived during the project.

Assessment of conditional predictability and use weather regimes to construct energy-relevant variables

Analysis of the utilization of conditional predictability and the use weather regimes to construct energy-relevant variables.

Weather regimes and modes of variability in Europe and their impact on the essential climate variables

Assessment of the main climatic drivers (weather regimes and the main modes of variability) and their impact on the essential climate variables.

Event in Southern/Central Europe.

Summary and analysis of the event.

Skill assessment and comparison of methods for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the energy sector

Assessment of the forecast capabilities of current S2S systems to predict the essential climate variables that drive the energy system and analysis of bias adjustment, statistical downscaling and model combination techniques to maximize the use of S2S predictions.

Event in Northern Europe

Summary and analysis of the event.

Open Research Data Pilot (3)

Data Management Plan (DMP) project

Final update of the of the requirements of the input data files and the hardware to store and preserve the data.

Data Management Plan (DMP) presentation

Summary of the requirements of the input data files and the hardware to store and preserve the data.

Data Management Plan (DMP) update

Review and update of the of the requirements of the input data files and the hardware to store and preserve the data.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2)

Website and social media platforms up and running, visual identity (design elements), templates and logo available

Description on the design of the project materials.

Communication and PR materials (roll-up and brochure).

Description of the PR materials.

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (17)

Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?

Author(s): L. Crochemore, M.‐H. Ramos, I. G. Pechlivanidis
Published in: Water Resources Research, 56/2, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr025700

Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems

Author(s): Llorenç Lledó, Irene Cionni, Verónica Torralba, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 15/7, 2020, Page(s) 074009, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2

Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design

Author(s): Phil J. Coker, Hannah C. Bloomfield, Daniel R. Drew, David J. Brayshaw
Published in: Renewable Energy, 150, 2020, Page(s) 509-522, ISSN 0960-1481
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.12.082

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Author(s): Hannah C. Bloomfield, David J. Brayshaw, Andrew J. Charlton‐Perez
Published in: Meteorological Applications, 27/1, 2019, ISSN 1350-4827
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1002/met.1858

Choices in the Verification of S2S Forecasts and Their Implications for Climate Services

Author(s): Andrea Manrique-Suñén, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Nicola Cortesi, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, 148/10, 2020, Page(s) 3995-4008, ISSN 0027-0644
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-20-0067.1

What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts?

Author(s): I. G. Pechlivanidis, L. Crochemore, J. Rosberg, T. Bosshard
Published in: Water Resources Research, 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026987

Predicting Daily Mean Wind Speed in Europe Weeks ahead from MJO Status

Author(s): Llorenç Lledó, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, 148/8, 2020, Page(s) 3413-3426, ISSN 0027-0644
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-19-0328.1

Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector

Author(s): Verónica Torralba, Nube Gonzalez‐Reviriego, Nicola Cortesi, Andrea Manrique‐Suñén, Llorenç Lledó, Raül Marcos, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 0899-8418
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6881

Author Correction: Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry

Author(s): Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann, Ilaria Vigo
Published in: Nature Energy, 5/3, 2020, Page(s) 271-271, ISSN 2058-7546
Publisher: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0586-9

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Author(s): Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Journal no. 382, 2018, Page(s) pp1-13, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Author(s): Llorenç Lledó, Omar Bellprat, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Albert Soret
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123/10, 2018, Page(s) 4837-4849, ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028019

Seasonal forecasts of wind power generation

Author(s): Ll. Lledó, V. Torralba, A. Soret, J. Ramon, F.J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Renewable Energy, 143, 2019, Page(s) 91-100, ISSN 0960-1481
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.04.135

Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting

Author(s): A Soret, V Torralba, N Cortesi, I Christel, Ll Palma, A Manrique-Suñén, Ll Lledó, N González-Reviriego, F J Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1222, 2019, Page(s) 012009, ISSN 1742-6588
Publisher: Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009

Characterization of European wind speed variability using weather regimes

Author(s): Nicola Cortesi, Verónica Torralba, Nube González-Reviriego, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04839-5

What global reanalysis best represents near‐surface winds?

Author(s): Jaume Ramon, Llorenç Lledó, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145/724, 2019, Page(s) 3236-3251, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3616

Varying snow and vegetation signatures of surface albedo feedback on the Northern Hemisphere land warming

Author(s): Andrea Alessandri, Franco Catalano, Matteo De Felice, Bart van den Hurk, Gianpaolo Balsamo
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd65f

Meteorological Drivers of European Power System Stress

Author(s): H. C. Bloomfield, C. C. Suitters, D. R. Drew
Published in: Journal of Renewable Energy, 2020, 2020, Page(s) 1-12, ISSN 2314-4386
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
DOI: 10.1155/2020/5481010

Non-peer reviewed articles (1)

Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry

Author(s): Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann, Ilaria Vigo
Published in: Nature Energy, 5/2, 2020, Page(s) 108-110, ISSN 2058-7546
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0561-5

Other (2)

HOW DID ARCTIC SEA ICE AFFECT ENERGY PRODUCTION IN EUROPE IN 2018?

Author(s): Octenjak, Sara; Bojovic, Dragana; Terrado, Marta; López Martí, Ferran; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta, Juan; Donar, Markus; Torralba, Veronica
Published in: 4, 2019
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3567616

A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe

Author(s): Philip Bett; Hazel Thornton; Alberto Troccoli; Matteo De Felice; Emma Suckling; Laurent Dubus; Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan; David Brayshaw
Published in: Crossref, 5, 2019
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/kzwqx