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ATS Level SAT 2035 Forecast

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - FORSAT2035 (ATS Level SAT 2035 Forecast)

Reporting period: 2017-09-11 to 2018-11-10

FORSAT2035 has performed forecasts for small aircraft traffic in terms of fleet and movements starting from 2014, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035 at country/region/world level to:
• contribute to CS2–TE quantifying the benefit of CS2 technologies to environment, economy and connectivity also wrt ACARE's targets
• support the development of EU Aeronautical Industries and their leadership and also identifying possible opportunities for market penetration in the ATS for the EU OEM.

These outcomes consist in the global fleet development and the share of European (Clean Sky) Aircraft and the development of movements per selected country and Origin/Destination airfields.
The investigation of available forecasts studies and the system analysis of relevant drivers for the future market development (fleet and movements), supporting the developing of the final forecasts, have been judged excellent by the Topic Manager.
This forecast approach ensures that fleet details and movement distribution are quantified in a high resolution, going beyond existing research.
The list of performed activities comprises:
• Analysis of existing forecasts and related approaches and assumptions,
• Identification of regression laws in the aviation segment w.r.t. the observed social economic condition using the historical data,
• Development of new models for demand and traffic forecasts,
• Definition of the amount of the involved fleet per A/C category at a given date, validation of the methodology.

The list of Results includes:
1. Gap analysis of existing forecasts and identification of drivers and barriers
2. Demand model for SAT with contributing parameters and elasticities
3. Global fleet development and the share of European Clean SKy2 aircraft
4. Quantification of movements per selected country and between Origin and Destination airports
5. Global Methodology to forecasting with an independent and dedicated approach (specific for the SAT class of vehicles).
6. Conclusions derived by comparisons with other references and guarantee of correctness and robustness of the adopted approach and obtained results.

Consortium is planning publications in referenced journals and conferences starting from the mid 2019 on.
Exploitation of results will be generally to support future CS actions and future research activities in all the impacted domains: aeronautics and general transport. Main foregrounds which are expected to be exploited are the global methodology, specifically the forecast and demand models.
The primary impact of the project is to provide a robust forecast for the TE in order to enable:

- impact assessment of CS2 technologies
- a better matching of Flight Path 2050 goals
and to add a source of information about CS2 technologies.

The impact of the project is furthermore defined in the following different areas:

i. Impact on future SAT market
- To estimate EU industry deliveries and associated workforce
- To set priorities for EU industry and research in those market segments where future commercial activities are most attractive
- Beneficial to EU industries, as the project has provided tools to estimate future markets and to understand the impact of different future scenario’s and technologies on the A/C market

ii. Environmental impact
- To support the TE to calculate the environmental effects of technology improvements for SAT class and allow quantifying the benefits of CS2 technologies and their level of contribution to Flight Path 2050 goals
- To give results in more detailed forms as number of flights depending on missions (short, medium, oversee flights), flights between regions and flights grouped to size of airports

iii. Connectivity/mobility, economic impact
- To supports citizens of the globalised economy and organizations by providing them a time effective fast transportation system
- To use the new methodology in other domains
- To better understand relationship between different parameters and their elasticities
- To better understand and develop market forecast techniques
- To enable the TE to assess the EU connectivity

General recommendations coming from the results of FORSAT2035 are:
- To re-estimating the market after 5 – 8 years, when the changes in regulations (China), general aviation market diversification, influence of small electric and hybrid aircraft developments, etc. will have already some real results that might be used as inputs in further forecasting.

- To further refine the approach, for example expanding potential drivers or modelling continents/groups of countries separately.