Project description
Understanding the nucleation of earthquakes
The greatest challenge for seismologists is predicting earthquakes. However, it might be possible to know when an earthquake is coming by studying the behaviour of rocks. Unfortunately, the complex physics governing the nucleation of earthquakes remain poorly understood. To fill this knowledge gap, the EU-funded MONIFAULTS project will explore fault physics through geophysical data. It will establish a new and integrated methodology to monitor the spatiotemporal evolution of elastic properties on real faults using seismological and geodetic data. Machine learning and covariance matrix factorisation will be applied for improved earthquake detection and to discover ‘anomalous’ seismological signals. The project will carry out experiments in Italy, where earthquake risk is high, and for that reason relevant research and measures are a priority.
Objective
The last seismic sequence in Italy, responsible for 298 fatalities and important economic loss, remind us how urgent it is to improve our knowledge about earthquake physics to advance earthquake forecasting. While direct observations during laboratory earthquakes permit us to derive exhaustive physical models describing the behaviour of rocks and to forecast incoming lab-earthquakes, the complex physics governing the nucleation of earthquakes remain poorly understood in real Earth, and so does our ability to forecast earthquakes. I posit that this ‘ignorance’ emerges from our limited ability to unravel information about fault physics from geophysical data.The objective of this proposal is to introduce a new and integrated methodology to monitor the spatiotemporal evolution of elastic properties on real faults using seismological and geodetic data. We will apply machine learning and covariance matrix factorization for improved earthquake detection, and to discover ‘anomalous’ seismological signals, which will reveal unknown physical processes on faults. These novel observations will be integrated with time dependent measurements of rheology and deformation, obtained from cutting-edge techniques applied to continuous seismological and geodetic data. Our integrated monitoring approach will be applied to study how faults respond to known stress perturbations (as Earth tides). In parallel, we will analyse periods preceding significant earthquakes to assess how elastic properties and deformation evolve while a fault is approaching a critical (near rupture) state. Our natural laboratory will be Italy, given its excellent geodetic and seismological instrumentation, deep knowledge about faults geometry and the relevant risk posed by earthquakes. Our research will provide new insights about the complex physics of faults at critical state, necessary to understand how real earthquakes nucleate. This project will also have a major impact on observational earthquake forecast.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences geology seismology
- natural sciences mathematics pure mathematics geometry
- natural sciences computer and information sciences artificial intelligence machine learning
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
ERC-STG - Starting Grant
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2018-STG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
35122 Padova
Italy
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