Periodic Reporting for period 5 - SUBSILIENCE (Subsistence and human resilience to sudden climatic events in Europe during MIS3)
Período documentado: 2025-06-01 hasta 2025-11-30
Climate has long been proposed as a possible trigger factor for the extinction of Neanderthals and the rapid colonisation of Europe by Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH). Abrupt, acute climate oscillations, as recorded in polar ice cores, are particularly threatening because they can push ecosystems towards catastrophic outcomes. Under these conditions, a species' survival critically depends on its adaptive skills. SUBSILIENCE reconstructed the exact role these episodes played in the European ecology during the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition (MIS3, ~60-30 ka BP), providing new insights into the real causes of Neanderthal demise and AMH success.
SUBSILIENCE analysed the subsistence strategies adopted by both human species by applying archaeozoological, taphonomic and paleoproteomic analyses to archaeological sites in Serbia, Croatia, Italy, and Spain. The results allow evaluation of the behavioural flexibility and resilience of each human species across the different MIS3 stadial and interstadial episodes. To reconstruct local terrestrial climatic and environmental conditions, the project focused on measuring stable isotope values in animals consumed by both human species, providing an accurate, continuous environmental context for the regions where both human species lived. Subsistence, together with precise dating and climatic and environmental data, permitted modelling. Thus, a broader spatiotemporal perspective on ecological niches, available resources, and ecosystem carrying capacity was obtained.
The results show that changes in carrying capacity alone cannot explain Neanderthal extinction at a continental scale, but they are crucial for understanding their spatiotemporal distribution patterns. The arrival and dispersal of H. sapiens significantly increased Neanderthal extinction risk, without needing a direct selective advantage for modern humans. Crucially, successive demographic expansions/contractions highlighted inter-band connectivity as the pivotal factor for population stability in both species, supporting interconnected demographic processes in Neanderthal disappearance and H. sapiens success.
This multidisciplinary and novel approach has provided accurate answers to 1) how late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens cohabitated in Europe; 2) which particular subsistence patterns they carried out and the environmental conditions faced at a local and regional level in the southern European Peninsulas and 3) the net primary productivity (NPP) and herbivore carrying capacity across 16 biogeographic in the whole Europe, revealing that Neanderthals persisted longer and overlapped more with H. sapiens (up to millennia) in areas of high, stable productivity for small- and medium-sized herbivores, easing trophic pressure in the secondary consumer guild. Low or unstable ecosystems led to earlier Neanderthal extinctions, often predating the arrival of H. sapiens.
Consequently, the project has answered the main question and shown that the disappearance of Neanderthals and the dispersal of H. sapiens are best interpreted as interconnected demographic processes, driven by successive pulses of expansion and contraction rather than by a single catastrophic climatic event. Climate weakened the populations, but indirect competition and the social structure of Homo sapiens were decisive.
SUBSILIENCE analysed the subsistence strategies adopted by both human species by applying archaeozoological, taphonomic and paleoproteomic analyses to archaeological sites in Serbia, Croatia, Italy, and Spain. The results allow evaluation of the behavioural flexibility and resilience of each human species across the different MIS3 stadial and interstadial episodes. To reconstruct local terrestrial climatic and environmental conditions, the project focused on measuring stable isotope values in animals consumed by both human species, providing an accurate, continuous environmental context for the regions where both human species lived. Subsistence, together with precise dating and climatic and environmental data, permitted modelling. Thus, a broader spatiotemporal perspective on ecological niches, available resources, and ecosystem carrying capacity was obtained.
The results show that changes in carrying capacity alone cannot explain Neanderthal extinction at a continental scale, but they are crucial for understanding their spatiotemporal distribution patterns. The arrival and dispersal of H. sapiens significantly increased Neanderthal extinction risk, without needing a direct selective advantage for modern humans. Crucially, successive demographic expansions/contractions highlighted inter-band connectivity as the pivotal factor for population stability in both species, supporting interconnected demographic processes in Neanderthal disappearance and H. sapiens success.
This multidisciplinary and novel approach has provided accurate answers to 1) how late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens cohabitated in Europe; 2) which particular subsistence patterns they carried out and the environmental conditions faced at a local and regional level in the southern European Peninsulas and 3) the net primary productivity (NPP) and herbivore carrying capacity across 16 biogeographic in the whole Europe, revealing that Neanderthals persisted longer and overlapped more with H. sapiens (up to millennia) in areas of high, stable productivity for small- and medium-sized herbivores, easing trophic pressure in the secondary consumer guild. Low or unstable ecosystems led to earlier Neanderthal extinctions, often predating the arrival of H. sapiens.
Consequently, the project has answered the main question and shown that the disappearance of Neanderthals and the dispersal of H. sapiens are best interpreted as interconnected demographic processes, driven by successive pulses of expansion and contraction rather than by a single catastrophic climatic event. Climate weakened the populations, but indirect competition and the social structure of Homo sapiens were decisive.
The SUBSILIENCE project has transformed our understanding of Neanderthal extinction during MIS3 (~60–30 ka). Working across key regions in Iberia, France, Italy, Croatia and Serbia, we combined archaeozoology, paleoproteomics, multi-isotope analysis, high-precision dating and large-scale paleoecological modelling to explore how rapid climate oscillations, changing resources and the spread of Homo sapiens interacted over time. This integrative approach, rooted in intensive fieldwork and innovative laboratory and computational methods, has advanced knowledge of Neanderthal decline and generated open data, public outreach and original heritage applications.
Across four interlinked research lines, SUBSILIENCE reconstructed human subsistence, environments and ecosystems in unprecedented detail. Archaezoological studies of 21 sites, supported by ZooMS analysis of heavily fragmented bones and rigorous taphonomy, revealed flexible, context-dependent diets in late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens, and produced a global online database (www.subsilience.es) that standardises faunal identification. Parallel work on chronology and palaeoenvironment built a Europe-wide radiocarbon and OSL framework and used multi-isotope proxies, including a novel deuterium approach, to track vegetation, humidity and mobility at local scale. Landscape reconstructions and paleoart were integrated with simulations of net primary productivity, herbivore biomass, and human–carnivore competition across Europe, showing that shifts in carrying capacity structured where Neanderthals could persist, whereas the arrival and connectivity of H. sapiens increased extinction risk. A final synthesis of genetic data and climate proxies demonstrated that Neanderthal disappearance was not a single abrupt replacement but a mosaic process linked to regional declines in productivity, with Iberia serving as a late refugium.
The scientific output has been exceptional: 64 publications (51 in JCR journals), 48 conference presentations and 9 invited talks. The project trained one PhD student, five postdoctoral researchers, and a lab technician, and supported six Master’s theses and other PhDs. These achievements placed the PI among the world’s top 2% most-cited.
Dissemination and exploitation reached far beyond academia. Particularly innovative is PrehGastro, which translates the project’s findings into “archaeogastronomy” experiences that combine visits to prehistoric caves and landscapes with menus inspired by documented Prehistoric diets, thereby integrating these elements into cultural tourism strategies.
Across four interlinked research lines, SUBSILIENCE reconstructed human subsistence, environments and ecosystems in unprecedented detail. Archaezoological studies of 21 sites, supported by ZooMS analysis of heavily fragmented bones and rigorous taphonomy, revealed flexible, context-dependent diets in late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens, and produced a global online database (www.subsilience.es) that standardises faunal identification. Parallel work on chronology and palaeoenvironment built a Europe-wide radiocarbon and OSL framework and used multi-isotope proxies, including a novel deuterium approach, to track vegetation, humidity and mobility at local scale. Landscape reconstructions and paleoart were integrated with simulations of net primary productivity, herbivore biomass, and human–carnivore competition across Europe, showing that shifts in carrying capacity structured where Neanderthals could persist, whereas the arrival and connectivity of H. sapiens increased extinction risk. A final synthesis of genetic data and climate proxies demonstrated that Neanderthal disappearance was not a single abrupt replacement but a mosaic process linked to regional declines in productivity, with Iberia serving as a late refugium.
The scientific output has been exceptional: 64 publications (51 in JCR journals), 48 conference presentations and 9 invited talks. The project trained one PhD student, five postdoctoral researchers, and a lab technician, and supported six Master’s theses and other PhDs. These achievements placed the PI among the world’s top 2% most-cited.
Dissemination and exploitation reached far beyond academia. Particularly innovative is PrehGastro, which translates the project’s findings into “archaeogastronomy” experiences that combine visits to prehistoric caves and landscapes with menus inspired by documented Prehistoric diets, thereby integrating these elements into cultural tourism strategies.
SUBSILIENCE pioneered ZooMS proteomics for Palaeolithic sites in Spain, applied a novel multi-isotopic approach for humidity/vegetation/mobility and modelled ecology during MIS3 Dansgaard-Oeschger events. DTMA and sedimentary aDNA enhanced the resolution through MSCA/ERC collaborations.
The project shows that Neanderthal extinction was not a rapid, uniform replacement by Homo sapiens, but rather a staggered process that tracked regional declines in ecosystem productivity and herbivore biomass. Iberia served as a late refugium, where groups with broad, flexible diets survived longer until the spread and connectivity of H. sapiens intensified competition in already stressed environments, without requiring any inherent biological superiority. By integrating carrying-capacity models for 16 European regions with high-precision radiocarbon and OSL chronologies, the project provides one of the most robust explanations to date for Neanderthal extinction.
Implementation: PI Ana B. Marín-Arroyo assembled a multidisciplinary team and directed IV campaigns at Aitzbitarte III cave. 64 JCR papers (IF>20), top-2% citations and the ERC PoC Seal of Excellence.
Exploitation: The trademarked PrehGastro received regional funding, was presented at FITUR 2025, and hosted two congresses. ERC Touring exhibition (2025-27), Venice 19th Biennale Architecture: "Out of the Cave" linked science/art/sustainability. EvoAdapta is now a bioarchaeology hub—high-risk/high-gain success.
The project shows that Neanderthal extinction was not a rapid, uniform replacement by Homo sapiens, but rather a staggered process that tracked regional declines in ecosystem productivity and herbivore biomass. Iberia served as a late refugium, where groups with broad, flexible diets survived longer until the spread and connectivity of H. sapiens intensified competition in already stressed environments, without requiring any inherent biological superiority. By integrating carrying-capacity models for 16 European regions with high-precision radiocarbon and OSL chronologies, the project provides one of the most robust explanations to date for Neanderthal extinction.
Implementation: PI Ana B. Marín-Arroyo assembled a multidisciplinary team and directed IV campaigns at Aitzbitarte III cave. 64 JCR papers (IF>20), top-2% citations and the ERC PoC Seal of Excellence.
Exploitation: The trademarked PrehGastro received regional funding, was presented at FITUR 2025, and hosted two congresses. ERC Touring exhibition (2025-27), Venice 19th Biennale Architecture: "Out of the Cave" linked science/art/sustainability. EvoAdapta is now a bioarchaeology hub—high-risk/high-gain success.