Understanding Life Trajectories of Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe and Projecting Future Trends

Project Information

MigrantLife

Grant agreement ID: 834103

DOI 10.3030/834103

EC signature date 16 May 2019

Start date 1 September 2019

End date 31 August 2025

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost € 2 446 523,75

EU contribution € 2 446 523,75

Coordinated by

THE UNIVERSITY COURT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - MigrantLife (Understanding Life Trajectories of Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe and Projecting Future Trends)

Reporting period: 2021-03-01 to 2022-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

European countries have witnessed increasing immigration streams and ethnic heterogeneity of their populations. Facilitating immigrant integration and social cohesion has become a major societal issue. The project moves beyond previous research by first investigating how family, employment and housing trajectories evolve and interact in the lives of immigrants and their descendants in the UK, France, Germany and Sweden, and how factors related to a societal context, an early life context and critical transitions shape their life histories. Second, the study projects their future life trajectories using innovative computer simulation techniques, considering the main life domains and diversity between and within immigrant groups. Although recent studies report substantial diversity in family, in employment and in housing patterns among immigrants and their descendants in Europe, the causes of this heterogeneity remain far from clear. Furthermore, it is not known whether observed differences between immigrants and natives are short-term outcomes in a long-term process of cultural and economic integration or rather reflections of different pathways and outcomes for immigrants and their descendants. The project exploits large-scale longitudinal data from four countries and applies advanced longitudinal methods, including multichannel sequence analysis and multilevel event history analysis. Microsimulation is applied to project life histories for immigrants and their descendants. The project will significantly deepen our understanding of the relationships between the three life domains, and the causes of less and more successful life trajectories among immigrants and their descendants. This project will show whether the current heterogeneity between and within immigrant and minority groups vanishes over time or rather persists, suggesting an increasing diversity of European societies.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The main aim of the first half of the project was to complete subprojects on family (SP 1) and employment trajectories (SP 2). Much of the focus during the first reporting period (1/9/19-28/2/21) was on securing access to research data, checking data quality, preparing data for analysis and analysing data from four countries on family trajectories (SP 1). In the following reporting period (1/3/21-31/8/22), we completed research on family dynamics among migrant populations and analysed data on employment trajectories (SP 2). We organised two successful Advisory Board meetings (August 2020 and October 2021); a training workshop in June 2021; and the MigrantLife symposium, a two-day virtual event in March 2022, which brought together more than thirty researchers from Europe and North America. We participated in major national and international conferences. Additionally, we advised policymakers on labour market integration of immigrants (e.g. a seminar for UK government Permanent Secretaries and contribution to a report to the Scottish Government). Deliverables of 36 months of the project include: a) 16 completed papers, 4 of which have been published in international journals (or books), b) 2 policy briefs, and c) 38 presentations for the research community, policymakers or general public.

Our research shows significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants in Europe. This diversity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants, although some patterns observed for immigrants persist among the descendants’ groups (e.g. preference for marriage), whereas others have almost vanished (e.g. large families). The results show that migrant background is strongly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the destination country context significantly influences childbearing behaviour. This suggests that cultural-normative factors are important in shaping partnership behaviour of immigrants and their descendants, whereas structural-economic factors may play a more important role in fertility decisions. The findings of the study underline that the institution of marriage is very slow to change, especially in the communities with marriage-centered family norms, whereas fertility postponement and smaller family size are necessary adjustments to the existing socio-economic context. Our analysis of employment trajectories identifies the main types of migrants and shows that many women who arrive as family migrants have low employment levels. Women with children are more likely to be inactive than men, but the gender differences are larger for migrants and also their descendants than for the native population. The results suggest the lack of opportunities for migrant and ethnic minority women with children, although preferences may also play a role for some groups.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Substantive
Our research supports significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe. This diversity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants. Interestingly, the changes across generations are larger for childbearing patterns and smaller for partnership behaviour. Partnership patterns are particularly associated with migration background, whereas the destination country context influences patterns of childbearing. This suggests that cultural-normative factors are important in shaping partnership behaviour of immigrants and their descendants, whereas structural-economic factors may be more important for fertility decisions. These are novel findings, which no previous study has shown. They emerged from our studies where we simultaneously investigated partnership and childbearing trajectories. The results significantly advance our understanding of the process of migrant integration across generations and the factors driving changes. These novel findings also provide empirical base for projections – we can expect some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g. preference for marriage among some groups), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g. large families).

Methodological
We have developed multilevel multistate event history framework to investigate life trajectories among migrants and their descendants and have shown how multichannel sequence analysis can be used to understand how parallel life careers interplay in the individuals’ lives. We have demonstrated how event-history data can be analysed in comparative research without the need to combine individual-level data from different countries. We have applied novel machine learning techniques such as Random Survival Forest to identify individuals with specific family behaviour.

Next steps
We are currently preparing data to investigate housing trajectories among immigrants and their descendants and how housing conditions interact with family and employment trajectories. Thereafter, we will project future life trajectories using computer simulation techniques. Such a projection exercise is critical for developing an understanding of the long-term dynamics among immigrants and their descendants and of whether and how the life trajectories can be influenced by policies.

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