Periodic Reporting for period 3 - MigrantLife (Understanding Life Trajectories of Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe and Projecting Future Trends)
Période du rapport: 2022-09-01 au 2024-02-29
European countries have witnessed increasing immigration streams and ethnic heterogeneity of their populations. Facilitating immigrant integration and social cohesion has become a major societal issue. The project moves beyond previous research by first investigating how family, employment and housing trajectories evolve and interact in the lives of immigrants and their descendants in the UK, France, Germany and Sweden, and how factors related to a societal context, an early life context and critical transitions shape their life histories. Second, the study projects their future life trajectories using innovative computer simulation techniques, considering the main life domains and diversity between and within immigrant groups. The project exploits large-scale longitudinal data from four countries and applies advanced longitudinal methods, including multichannel sequence analysis and multilevel event history analysis. Microsimulation is applied to project life histories for immigrants and their descendants. The project will significantly deepen our understanding of the relationships between the three life domains, and the causes of less and more successful life trajectories among immigrants and their descendants. This project will show whether the current heterogeneity between and within immigrant and minority groups vanishes over time or rather persists, suggesting an increasing diversity of European societies.
We have conducted research on family, employment and housing trajectories among immigrants and their descendants. We organised three successful Advisory Board meetings (2020, 2021 and 2022); a training workshop in 2021; and two MigrantLife symposiums (2022 and 2023). Both symposiums brought together more than thirty researchers from Europe and North America with keynote lectures on the children of migrants, on the third generation and on the projections of migrant populations. We participated in major national and international conferences. Additionally, we advised policymakers on labour market integration of immigrants (e.g. a seminar for UK government Permanent Secretaries; contribution to a report to the Scottish Government; a seminar for UN Inter-agency working group on population data, internal displacement and refugee data). Deliverables of 54 months of the project include: a) 31 completed papers, 13 of which have been published in international journals (or books), b) 2 policy briefs, and c) 62 presentations for the research community, policymakers or general public.
Our research shows significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants in Europe. This diversity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants, although some patterns observed for immigrants persist among the descendants’ groups (e.g. preference for marriage), whereas others have almost vanished (e.g. large families). The results show that migrant background is strongly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the destination country context significantly influences childbearing behaviour. This suggests that cultural-normative factors are important in shaping partnership behaviour of immigrants and their descendants, whereas structural-economic factors may play a more important role in fertility decisions. The findings of the study underline that the institution of marriage is very slow to change, especially in the communities with marriage-centred family norms, whereas fertility postponement and smaller family size are necessary adjustments to the existing socio-economic context.
Our analysis of employment trajectories identifies the main types of migrants and shows that many women who arrive as family migrants have low employment levels. Women with children are more likely to be inactive than men, but the gender differences are larger for immigrants than for the native population. The results suggest the lack of opportunities for migrant women with children, although preferences may also play a role for some migrant groups. Overall, employment trajectories among the descendants are similar to those of the native populations; however, among some descendant groups conservative family patterns are coupled with low labour market attachment, especially among women. This is likely to have long-term implications for the (financial) well-being of second-generation women.
Our research on housing of immigrants and their descendants in Europe shows that immigrants are less likely to be homeowners and more likely to be social or private renters. Homeownership rates increase across migrant generations; however, we still find lower levels of homeownership and higher levels of social renting among some descendant groups. While low homeownership levels among immigrants are expected (e.g. less time to accumulate resources than the native population; less likely to inherit any property; some may intend to return to their homeland), similar patterns among some descendant groups signal either persistent disadvantage or intergenerational transmission of values and resources. Nevertheless, our research support gradual housing assimilation and integration across migrant generations: the descendants of immigrants with one native parent (or so-called 2.5G) have homeownership levels close to those of the native population.
Our research shows significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants in Europe. This diversity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants, although some patterns observed for immigrants persist among the descendants’ groups (e.g. preference for marriage), whereas others have almost vanished (e.g. large families). The results show that migrant background is strongly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the destination country context significantly influences childbearing behaviour. This suggests that cultural-normative factors are important in shaping partnership behaviour of immigrants and their descendants, whereas structural-economic factors may play a more important role in fertility decisions. The findings of the study underline that the institution of marriage is very slow to change, especially in the communities with marriage-centred family norms, whereas fertility postponement and smaller family size are necessary adjustments to the existing socio-economic context.
Our analysis of employment trajectories identifies the main types of migrants and shows that many women who arrive as family migrants have low employment levels. Women with children are more likely to be inactive than men, but the gender differences are larger for immigrants than for the native population. The results suggest the lack of opportunities for migrant women with children, although preferences may also play a role for some migrant groups. Overall, employment trajectories among the descendants are similar to those of the native populations; however, among some descendant groups conservative family patterns are coupled with low labour market attachment, especially among women. This is likely to have long-term implications for the (financial) well-being of second-generation women.
Our research on housing of immigrants and their descendants in Europe shows that immigrants are less likely to be homeowners and more likely to be social or private renters. Homeownership rates increase across migrant generations; however, we still find lower levels of homeownership and higher levels of social renting among some descendant groups. While low homeownership levels among immigrants are expected (e.g. less time to accumulate resources than the native population; less likely to inherit any property; some may intend to return to their homeland), similar patterns among some descendant groups signal either persistent disadvantage or intergenerational transmission of values and resources. Nevertheless, our research support gradual housing assimilation and integration across migrant generations: the descendants of immigrants with one native parent (or so-called 2.5G) have homeownership levels close to those of the native population.
Substantive
Our research supports significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe. Interestingly, partnership patterns are particularly associated with migration background, whereas the destination country context influences patterns of childbearing. This suggests that cultural-normative factors are important in shaping partnership behaviour of immigrants and their descendants, whereas structural-economic factors may be more important for fertility decisions. These are novel findings, which no previous study has shown. These novel findings also provide empirical base for projections – we can expect some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g. preference for marriage among some groups), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g. large families).
Our findings on family and housing trajectories across migrant generations are also new. Our research shows that childbearing behaviour and homeownership levels among the descendants with one immigrant parent (or so-called 2.5 generation) are similar to those of the native populations in Europe suggesting that a full immigrant integration and assimilation may take two to three generations.
Methodological
We have developed a multilevel multistate event history framework to investigate life trajectories among migrants and their descendants and have shown how multichannel sequence analysis can be used to understand how parallel life careers interplay in the individuals’ lives. We have demonstrated how event-history data can be analysed in comparative research without the need to combine individual-level data from different countries. We have applied novel machine learning techniques such as Random Survival Forest to identify individuals with specific family behaviour.
Next steps
We are currently working on simultaneous analyses of family, employment and housing trajectories among immigrants and their descendants. We are also developing life course projections using microsimulation to gain a better understanding of the longer-term dynamics among migrant populations.
Our research supports significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe. Interestingly, partnership patterns are particularly associated with migration background, whereas the destination country context influences patterns of childbearing. This suggests that cultural-normative factors are important in shaping partnership behaviour of immigrants and their descendants, whereas structural-economic factors may be more important for fertility decisions. These are novel findings, which no previous study has shown. These novel findings also provide empirical base for projections – we can expect some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g. preference for marriage among some groups), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g. large families).
Our findings on family and housing trajectories across migrant generations are also new. Our research shows that childbearing behaviour and homeownership levels among the descendants with one immigrant parent (or so-called 2.5 generation) are similar to those of the native populations in Europe suggesting that a full immigrant integration and assimilation may take two to three generations.
Methodological
We have developed a multilevel multistate event history framework to investigate life trajectories among migrants and their descendants and have shown how multichannel sequence analysis can be used to understand how parallel life careers interplay in the individuals’ lives. We have demonstrated how event-history data can be analysed in comparative research without the need to combine individual-level data from different countries. We have applied novel machine learning techniques such as Random Survival Forest to identify individuals with specific family behaviour.
Next steps
We are currently working on simultaneous analyses of family, employment and housing trajectories among immigrants and their descendants. We are also developing life course projections using microsimulation to gain a better understanding of the longer-term dynamics among migrant populations.