Project description
Predicting tomorrow's sea levels today
A major threat that may emerge as a consequence of global warming is the increased risk of coastal floods from extreme sea levels (ESLs). Reliable assessments of sea level variability, including ESLs, are crucial for developing coastal defence and adaptation strategies. Future sea level rise projections are poorly described and unreliable because of the lack of understanding of the dynamics and responses of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to a warming world. The EU-funded ExTaSea project will address the ambiguities that exist in current sea level projections using geological data that are useful analogues for the future, and statistical techniques, to produce policy-relevant extreme sea-level scenarios that capture the natural bounds of sea level change.
Objective
Sea-level rise is a major societal concern, with potential impacts on population, infrastructure and coastal environments. Coastal defence and adaptation strategies are highly dependent upon our ability to understand and predict sea-level variability, including extreme sea levels. Quantifying the upper tail probability of sea level – i.e. the risk of extremes - is therefore of high socio-economic relevance. Current projections suggest a low probability of polar ice-sheet decay scenarios, but they cannot be ruled out. Such scenarios are poorly parameterized and/or associated with large uncertainties in current projections. The ExTaSea project will address two sources of uncertainty in current projections of future sea-level: (1) our understanding of the system and, (2) the degree to which we can simulate natural variability. ExTaSea will do this by producing well quantified natural bounds on both the rate and magnitude of sea level rise (objective 1) and probability distributions that include specific information on high-end extremes for global mean and regional sea levels (objective 2). These will contribute to our understanding of these sources of uncertainty and will form the basis for policy-relevant extreme sea-level scenarios (objective 3) that account for the dynamic response of the ice sheets to climate forcing. ExTaSea will produce statistical distributions by: (1) collating and quality checking already available geological data from past time intervals of the last 200,000 years that are useful analogues for future change; (2) novel statistical techniques (e.g. modified Bayesian partition modelling) and (3) modelling of solid Earth deformation processes (GIA) that will allow absolute magnitudes of sea levels to be determined. As the geological record integrates all processes, the statistical distributions on the natural bounds of sea-level will include the high-impact (extreme) tail associated with mass loss from the polar ice sheets.
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
MAIN PROGRAMME
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H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2018
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
YO10 5DD YORK NORTH YORKSHIRE
United Kingdom
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.