Predicting tomorrow's sea levels today
A major threat that may emerge as a consequence of global warming is the increased risk of coastal floods from extreme sea levels (ESLs). Reliable assessments of sea level variability, including ESLs, are crucial for developing coastal defence and adaptation strategies. Future sea level rise projections are poorly described and unreliable because of the lack of understanding of the dynamics and responses of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to a warming world. The EU-funded ExTaSea project will address the ambiguities that exist in current sea level projections using geological data that are useful analogues for the future, and statistical techniques, to produce policy-relevant extreme sea-level scenarios that capture the natural bounds of sea level change.