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Global Impact Assessment of Regulations and Policies for Sustainable Aviation by 2050

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - GLIMPSE2050 (Global Impact Assessment of Regulations and Policies for Sustainable Aviation by 2050)

Période du rapport: 2019-10-01 au 2021-03-31

The aviation industry in Europe and worldwide has long recognised the challenge to accommodate air-traffic growth in a sustainable way. To this end, efforts are made in the development of new aircraft technology, in air traffic management, in sustainable aviation fuels, and in policies and regulations.

Building on the significant gains made in the first Clean Sky Programme (2008-2016), the Clean Sky 2 Programme aims to make a substantial contribution to the ACARE 2050 environmental goals by accelerating the introduction of new aircraft technology in the timeframe 2025-2035. The objective of the Clean Sky 2 TE project GLIMPSE2050 (Global Impact Assessment of Regulations and Polices of Sustainable Aviation by 2050) is to evaluate at global level the potential effects up to 2050 of regulations and policies that are currently discussed and potentially introduced until 2040 to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. It expands the aircraft technology-oriented focus of the Clean Sky 2 Programme as it estimates which environmental reductions (focusing on CO2 and NOx) can be achieved in addition to those brought by Clean Sky 2 technologies.

The regulations and policies selected by GLIMPSE2050 concern technological, sustainable aviation fuel, operational and economic (or market-based) measures. For instance, sustainable aviation fuel uptake mandates/targets; ATM modernisation (SESAR, NextGen and ASBUs); wake energy retrieval; ban on domestic flights; CORSIA; EU-ETS; and fuel and ticket-based taxation. The assessment points to a worldwide reduction of about 11% in CO2 and 14% in NOx that the selected regulations and policies can jointly bring in the various timeframes up to 2050 on top of the environmental improvements resulting from Clean Sky 2 technologies.
To achieve its objective, GLIMPSE2050 applies a four-steps approach. The first step is the selection of regulations and policies for its assessment. The second step is to select the environmental-performance indicators to quantify. The third step is to select and enhance the assessment method to quantify these indicators. The fourth step is to assess the environmental impact of the selected regulations and policies in terms of the selected indicators by means of the selected (and enhanced) method. These steps and their main results are elaborated below.

1. Selection of regulations and policies
GLIMPSE2050 conducts a comprehensive and structured literature review and a systematic selection of (candidate) regulations and policies for its assessment. This review is based on publications from governmental organisations (e.g. EU and ICAO) and non-governmental and trade organisations (e.g. IATA, ATAG, and ICCT) as well as publications in media (e.g. Aviation Week, EURACTIV, and Flight Global). The selected (candidate) regulations and policies are classified into technological regulations and policies (e.g. ICAO Independent Expert goals), sustainable aviation fuels (e.g. uptake mandates and targets), operational regulations and policies (e.g. ATM modernisation through SESAR, NextGen and ASBUs; wake energy retrieval; and ban on domestic flights), and economic or market-based regulations and policies (e.g. EU-ETS, CORSIA, and fuel and ticket-based taxation).

2. Selection of environmental-impact indicators
Based on EU Directives, international standards and best practices, GLIMPSE2050 selects environmental-impact indicators, such as the total amount of CO2 and NOx emitted by aircraft worldwide.

3. Set-up of assessment approach
The GLIMPSE2050 assessment approach starts with the fleet and movements forecast up to 2050 provided by the Topic Manager. This forecast is based on autonomous economic, demographical and technological developments but without any of the selected regulations and policies. GLIMPSE2050 fine-tunes EASA’s and ICAO-CAEP endorsed tool AERO-MS to match this fleet and movements forecast, and subsequently uses AERO-MS to generate the fleet and movements scenarios with selected regulations and policies implemented.

4. Assessment
GLIMPSE2050 carries out the environmental-impact assessment of the selected regulations and policies. Every regulation and policy is assessed individually first, and then as part of selected groups of regulations and policies. The results of this assessment indicate a reduction of about 11% in CO2 and 14% in NOx that the selected regulations and policies can jointly bring in the various timeframes up to 2050 on top of the reductions brought by Clean Sky 2 technologies. As the geographical scope of a few regulations and policies differ, there are variations per world region. The selected regulations and policies on ATM modernisation, wake energy retrieval, and fuel and ticket-based tax appear to be the dominant contributors to these reductions. Further, the results suggest a reduction in the number of flights and number of flown aircraft-kilometres, a reduction in fleet size (with an increased share of Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft), and an increased share of long-haul flights. Nevertheless, these results hint at a relative modest impact on stakeholders.
These results are presented at the GLIMPSE2050 Dissemination Workshop and will be considered in the overall Clean Sky 2 TE assessment of the environmental benefits that regulations and policies, alternative fuels and propulsion, optimised fleet and network, and supersonic and urban air mobility can jointly bring on top of Clean Sky 2 technology.

In its work, GLIMPSE2050 disseminates and exploits its outcomes on various occasions and to a variety of audiences, such as:
- Workshops with Clean Sky 2 JU, EC DG-ENV, EC DG-MOVE, EC DG-RTD, and EC DG-CLIMA for consultation on candidate regulations and policies and with Clean Sky 2 JU, various EC DGs (viz. DG-ENV, DG-CLIMA, DG-MOVE, and DG-RTD), leaders of Clean Sky 2 IADPs, ITDs and TAs, and EASA to disseminate outcomes and collect feedback on future work on aviation policies;
- Presentations at Clean Sky 2 TE Annual Review Meetings and EASN Conference;
- Publication in CORDIS’ Research*eu Magazine in February 2021, titled “Getting an accurate glimpse of aviation’s environmental impact”.
Of course, GLIMPSE2050 outcomes are added to Royal NLR’s current research and advising capability. Further, Royal NLR uses these outcomes to direct research and innovation in policy support for sustainability as well as to assess potential opportunities addressed in the GLIMPSE2050 Dissemination Workshop.
The main outcomes of GLIMPSE2050 are firstly the estimation of the environmental reductions (focusing on CO2 and NOx) up to 2050 that can be achieved in addition to those brought by Clean Sky 2 technologies through regulations and policies that are currently discussed and potentially introduced until 2040 to reduce the environmental impact of aviation, and secondly the enhanced assessment method. Through these outcomes, GLIMPSE2050 expects to impact Clean Sky 2 TE (by complementing the other assessments), Clean Sky 2 JU and Clean Sky 2 Members (by monitoring Clean Sky 2 achievements in a broader perspective), EC (by assessing the level of success towards the ACARE Flightpath 2050 or other sustainability goals), aviation sector (by providing capabilities to assess effects on business development), research community (by indicating opportunities for further research in policies for sustainable aviation), and society (by displaying effort and progress in sustainable aviation).
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