Transition research has so far mostly focussed on successful transitions and the emergence of new, more sustainable technologies and practices. Research on what the transformation of unsustainable socio-technical systems implies for their host regions remains scarce. Regional studies and economic geography have studied spatial implications and the determinants of regional development but have also largely focussed on the bright side, highlighting the foundations of success stories of regional development. Only very limited research exists on why regional development fails. The CINTRAN project has contributed to closing this research gap by systematically studying the patterns and dynamics of decarbonization at the regional level as well as the conditions of a region’s capacity to adapt to the related structural changes. What are enablers, drivers and barriers for transforming carbon-intensive industries? What are the system overlaps between the carbon-intensive industry under transformation and the regional economic and social systems? And what makes a transition and subsequent structural adjustments “successful” from a normative perspective? Which structures condition structural change?
Building on theoretical insights, CINTRAN combined qualitative and quantitative methods to empirically study both structural factors as well as agency, i.e. the ways and means in which regional stakeholders and policy makers can manage the structural adjustments.
Quantitative methods were applied to identify key socio-economic implications of decarbonization for the most vulnerable regions in Europe. CINTRAN research has broken down the energy system implications of national climate and energy plans at the regional level and quantified their socio-economic impacts on regional value creation and employment. On that basis we were also able to provide a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of the Just Transition Mechanism to alleviate some of those impacts.
A combination of qualitative methods have been applied to study in depth four regional case studies through three complementary analytical lenses:
First, we will studied the regions’ economic dependence from the carbon-intensive industry, also taking into account other mega-trends such as globalization, automation and digitalization. Second, we studied the institutional set-up and politics of decarbonization in the four regions, including with respect to the role of populism and anti-democratic attitudes. And third, we studied aspects such as migration, gender and various dimensions of inequality that may impinge on a region’s capacity to manage the transition in a just and equitable way.
CINTRAN will also investigated ways in which regional stakeholders and policy makers respond to the transformative changes at the political, economic, social or cultural level. We assessed and categorized coping strategies, practices that successfully restore or create agency and help regional stakeholders to adapt to changes. To support agency on the part of regional policy makers, CINTRAN developed a tool to help them to self-assess and monitor the progress of transformation and evaluate the policy mix in place to facilitate a just transition. Finally, CINTRAN made the knowledge created available to practitioners and academics by sustaining the coaltransitions.org knowledge hub, through a series of thematic webinars and the CINTRAN Transition Academies.
