Periodic Reporting for period 2 - Modus (Modelling and assessing the role of air transport in an integrated, intermodal transport system)
Reporting period: 2021-06-01 to 2022-11-30
The topics of multimodality, passenger experience and inclusion as well as creating a seamless mobility system within Europe that meets the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, are high on the agenda of shaping the future European transport system. The Modus project focused on modelling and assessing the role of air transport in an integrated, multimodal transport system, with a focus on joint air-rail mobility. This approach helps in gaining an enhanced understanding of multimodal traveller requirements, air-rail modal choice decisions and advancing and implementing models to better depict passengers’ door-to-door journeys, and to do so across different future mobility scenarios. In line with these, the Modus modelling approach can be used to assess the resulting impacts on capacities, predictability, and the environment, across these scenarios and for multimodal journeys. This can provide useful support for policy makers as well as transport service providers in shaping future multimodal mobility. (1) Multimodal door-to-door mobility: Understanding the potential contribution of ATM and air transport to improve passengers' intermodal journeys and how this translates into an enhanced performance of the overall transport system. (2) Multimodal performance assessment: Applying and further advancing existing models to determine the demand allocation across different transport modes, especially air and rail, and the effects on the overall capacity of these modes. (3) Way forward: Developing and assessing performance and connectivity indicators which facilitate the identification of gaps and barriers in meeting high-level European (air) transport goals, and solutions to gaps can be addressed.
To understand multimodal door-to-door mobility, a main part of the Modus project has been the identification of future drivers of supply of and demand for multimodal mobility. A wide variety of factors has been assessed showing the complexity and interlinkages across social, political, environmental, technological, and economic decision-making factors. Potential development paths have been captured in the form of four future multimodal scenarios, including the pre-pandemic recovery, a European short-haul shift, strong growth with technological support, and the move towards a more decentralised mobility within Europe. The application of the modal choice analysis across a subset of these scenarios as well as to different routes within Europe shows that there is no general statement to be made regarding an air-rail joint mobility strategy. It can rather be seen that there are routes with already a well-established HSR connection and a high share of rail traffic. The potential of extending rail capacities in the future may therefore have a strong impact on air-rail market shares, and which sector may take up higher portions of additional demand in the future. These considerations have to be taken into account when making investment in infrastructure and/or designing mobility products and services.
A true multimodal transport system is called up to offer mobility services that are tailored towards such personal needs, including differences in trip purpose, value of time or the level of environmental awareness, for example. Hence, traveller archetypes vary according to their willingness to pay for travel products and services along their journey, or the requirements or process times along each step of the door-to-door journey. These elements are also reflected in the multimodal performance assessment in Modus. This assessment built on and extended two well-established simulation models, the Mercury passenger mobility model and the R-NEST tool. Both models have been advanced to take into account rail travel as well as door-to-door journeys in order to calculate according metrics. This holistic approach in Modus prompted the development of city archetypes, which is a specific combination of airport and railway connections. In order to assess the multimodal performance across the different scenarios, a number of experiments have been designed to evaluate the impact on key (multimodal) performance indicators, including door-to-door travel times, average flight waiting times, flight delays, or the gate-to-gate CO2 emissions. Each of the experiments has been run with and without a disruption, thus showing the impact on the different mobility metrics. The results of the Modus project have shown that there are some essential requirements and key enablers to foster multimodality in Europe. Among all these recommendations, we believe that it is essential to consider different scenarios, use cases and developments in long-term planning, also given uncertain economic, social and even pandemic-related developments in Europe. Scenarios can help to make sense of the future and to structure decision- and policy making.
A true multimodal transport system is called up to offer mobility services that are tailored towards such personal needs, including differences in trip purpose, value of time or the level of environmental awareness, for example. Hence, traveller archetypes vary according to their willingness to pay for travel products and services along their journey, or the requirements or process times along each step of the door-to-door journey. These elements are also reflected in the multimodal performance assessment in Modus. This assessment built on and extended two well-established simulation models, the Mercury passenger mobility model and the R-NEST tool. Both models have been advanced to take into account rail travel as well as door-to-door journeys in order to calculate according metrics. This holistic approach in Modus prompted the development of city archetypes, which is a specific combination of airport and railway connections. In order to assess the multimodal performance across the different scenarios, a number of experiments have been designed to evaluate the impact on key (multimodal) performance indicators, including door-to-door travel times, average flight waiting times, flight delays, or the gate-to-gate CO2 emissions. Each of the experiments has been run with and without a disruption, thus showing the impact on the different mobility metrics. The results of the Modus project have shown that there are some essential requirements and key enablers to foster multimodality in Europe. Among all these recommendations, we believe that it is essential to consider different scenarios, use cases and developments in long-term planning, also given uncertain economic, social and even pandemic-related developments in Europe. Scenarios can help to make sense of the future and to structure decision- and policy making.
Modus has provided improvements to connectivity indicators by considering the multimodal perspective. Modelling assessments relating to the key performance indicators predictability, capacity, or environment yielded results on the impact of traffic flow shifts across modes (in case of e.g. disturbances). Furthermore, by pursuing a multimodal, integrated modelling and assessment approach, a large variety of multimodal stakeholders was actively integrated during the course of the project (survey, workshops, interviews).
It provided advanced input and understanding in regard to the passenger experience and the impact on modal choice decisions. The results can be further applied to improve the knowledge on travellers preferences and expectations and how these influence the demand for air and rail transport.
Modus placed the focus on the role of air transport in an integrated, intermodal transport system by following a modelling approach that covers both landside and airside, and assessing passenger itineraries for a seamless, door-to-door journey (Mercury). Furthermore, the flight-centric modelling approach in R-NEST has been advanced by the integration of complementary air-rail transport in order to assess the impact on future capacity development. Modus provided a more detailed assessment of the impact of intermodal transport alignment by extending the modelling capabilities in this field, and thus providing a more accurate modelling of air traffic as an element of a wider multimodal transport system.
Modus built scenarios of multimodal supply and demand evolutions, taking into account European mobility goals: (1) pre-pandemic recovery, (2) European short-haul shift, (3) growth with strong technological support, (4) decentralised, remote and digital technology. The simulation results showed the landside and airside impact of these scenarios; the identification of gaps and barriers by both qualitative and quantitative assessment yielded the foundation for the assessment and evaluation of enablers and recommendations for moving towards a more multimodal transport system.
The project provided tools and insights for decision makers in moving towards the future vision of the European transport system, also strongly supported by the inclusion of an intermodal Industry Board as well as expert from relevant areas.
It provided advanced input and understanding in regard to the passenger experience and the impact on modal choice decisions. The results can be further applied to improve the knowledge on travellers preferences and expectations and how these influence the demand for air and rail transport.
Modus placed the focus on the role of air transport in an integrated, intermodal transport system by following a modelling approach that covers both landside and airside, and assessing passenger itineraries for a seamless, door-to-door journey (Mercury). Furthermore, the flight-centric modelling approach in R-NEST has been advanced by the integration of complementary air-rail transport in order to assess the impact on future capacity development. Modus provided a more detailed assessment of the impact of intermodal transport alignment by extending the modelling capabilities in this field, and thus providing a more accurate modelling of air traffic as an element of a wider multimodal transport system.
Modus built scenarios of multimodal supply and demand evolutions, taking into account European mobility goals: (1) pre-pandemic recovery, (2) European short-haul shift, (3) growth with strong technological support, (4) decentralised, remote and digital technology. The simulation results showed the landside and airside impact of these scenarios; the identification of gaps and barriers by both qualitative and quantitative assessment yielded the foundation for the assessment and evaluation of enablers and recommendations for moving towards a more multimodal transport system.
The project provided tools and insights for decision makers in moving towards the future vision of the European transport system, also strongly supported by the inclusion of an intermodal Industry Board as well as expert from relevant areas.