Periodic Reporting for period 2 - Modus (Modelling and assessing the role of air transport in an integrated, intermodal transport system)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2021-06-01 al 2022-11-30
A true multimodal transport system is called up to offer mobility services that are tailored towards such personal needs, including differences in trip purpose, value of time or the level of environmental awareness, for example. Hence, traveller archetypes vary according to their willingness to pay for travel products and services along their journey, or the requirements or process times along each step of the door-to-door journey. These elements are also reflected in the multimodal performance assessment in Modus. This assessment built on and extended two well-established simulation models, the Mercury passenger mobility model and the R-NEST tool. Both models have been advanced to take into account rail travel as well as door-to-door journeys in order to calculate according metrics. This holistic approach in Modus prompted the development of city archetypes, which is a specific combination of airport and railway connections. In order to assess the multimodal performance across the different scenarios, a number of experiments have been designed to evaluate the impact on key (multimodal) performance indicators, including door-to-door travel times, average flight waiting times, flight delays, or the gate-to-gate CO2 emissions. Each of the experiments has been run with and without a disruption, thus showing the impact on the different mobility metrics. The results of the Modus project have shown that there are some essential requirements and key enablers to foster multimodality in Europe. Among all these recommendations, we believe that it is essential to consider different scenarios, use cases and developments in long-term planning, also given uncertain economic, social and even pandemic-related developments in Europe. Scenarios can help to make sense of the future and to structure decision- and policy making.
It provided advanced input and understanding in regard to the passenger experience and the impact on modal choice decisions. The results can be further applied to improve the knowledge on travellers preferences and expectations and how these influence the demand for air and rail transport.
Modus placed the focus on the role of air transport in an integrated, intermodal transport system by following a modelling approach that covers both landside and airside, and assessing passenger itineraries for a seamless, door-to-door journey (Mercury). Furthermore, the flight-centric modelling approach in R-NEST has been advanced by the integration of complementary air-rail transport in order to assess the impact on future capacity development. Modus provided a more detailed assessment of the impact of intermodal transport alignment by extending the modelling capabilities in this field, and thus providing a more accurate modelling of air traffic as an element of a wider multimodal transport system.
Modus built scenarios of multimodal supply and demand evolutions, taking into account European mobility goals: (1) pre-pandemic recovery, (2) European short-haul shift, (3) growth with strong technological support, (4) decentralised, remote and digital technology. The simulation results showed the landside and airside impact of these scenarios; the identification of gaps and barriers by both qualitative and quantitative assessment yielded the foundation for the assessment and evaluation of enablers and recommendations for moving towards a more multimodal transport system.
The project provided tools and insights for decision makers in moving towards the future vision of the European transport system, also strongly supported by the inclusion of an intermodal Industry Board as well as expert from relevant areas.