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The downward impact of the stratosphere in current and future climates

Project description

How conditions in the stratosphere impact the weather

One of the most striking long-lived influences on the weather in Europe comes from the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere starting at about 10 km above Earth's surface. Extreme events in the stratosphere can have substantial impacts on surface weather, through coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric jet streams.The EU-funded stratoIMPACT project will explore the connection between the stratosphere and surface climate, and how it will change in a future climate. The project will analyse observational data and a hierarchy of numerical models designed to capture the major underlying processes of stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In addition, a comparison of complex climate models will provide new insights into dynamical coupling.

Objective

One of the most striking long-lived influences on the weather in Europe comes from the stratosphere, a highly-stratified layer of the atmosphere starting at about 10 km above the surface. The stratosphere impacts surface weather through coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric jet streams: Extreme events in the stratosphere, so-called sudden stratospheric warmings, tend to be followed by an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet stream and significant changes in weather patterns over Europe, including cold spells over Scandinavia and increased rainfall over the Mediterranean. It is however unclear how the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere will change in a future climate. Projections demonstrate great uncertainty in the stratospheric response to climate change, with a significant spread among the models, even in the sign of the response. Uncertainty also exists in the tropospheric response to climate change, with a considerable spread in climate model predictions in terms of the jet position, particularly in winter, when the stratospheric influence is strongest. It remains unclear how the combination of the changes in both the stratosphere and troposphere may alter the downward impact of the stratosphere. I propose to address these questions through observational data analysis and a hierarchy of numerical models. I will use an idealized modelling framework, designed to capture major underlying processes of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, to isolate the dominant factors that control the downward impact of the stratosphere, and their response to climate change. The role of transient eddies in maintaining the downward response will be investigated. A comparison to more complex climate models will provide further insights into dynamical coupling. Better understanding the connection between the stratosphere and surface climate is essential for reducing the uncertainty in climate models and extreme events prediction.

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MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2019

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Coordinator

EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 203 149,44
Address
Raemistrasse 101
8092 Zuerich
Switzerland

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Region
Schweiz/Suisse/Svizzera Zürich Zürich
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 203 149,44
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