Periodic Reporting for period 3 - METIS (METHODS AND TOOLS INNOVATIONS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT)
Reporting period: 2023-03-01 to 2025-05-31
METIS aimed to Advance seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) by strengthening the scientific basis and consistency of the three core components:
• Seismic hazard assessment and load definition,
• Structural and equipment fragility assessment, and
• Consequences and risk metrics,
ensuring improved coherence across the full risk chain.
The METIS project delivered major innovations in tools and methodologies for the seismic safety assessment of nuclear reactors, contributing to establish a new state of the art by strengthening technology transfer from the research community to industry.
The project developed, improved, and widely disseminated open‑source tools covering seismic hazard, fragility, and risk assessment. The project developed and built on existing open‑source, reproducible tools and workflows responding to industrial needs, fostering collaboration and long‑term sustainability of results. METIS introduced new approaches to test and update engineering models through comparison with experimental data and experience feedback.
Eventually, METIS implemented advanced approches for uncertainty quantification and propagation from hazard to fragility and risk.
In response to evolving safety requirements following the Fukushima accident and rapid scientific progress in earthquake engineering, METIS contributed to optimising the safety, resilience, and competitiveness of existing and future reactors.
Against the backdrop of a nuclear renaissance in Europe and worldwide, the strong involvement of young researchers and engineers was a key factor to the project’s success. Through dedicated training schools, workshops, and dissemination activities, METIS actively contributed to educating the next generation of nuclear safety experts and strengthening links between academia, industry, and regulators.
Finally, the METIS common case study provided a shared testbed to evaluate the feasibility and cost–benefit of innovative approaches, while the external peer review by the Advisory Board and independent experts delivered valuable feedback that informed the project’s final conclusions and recommendations.
• Seismic hazard assessment and load definition,
• Structural and equipment fragility assessment, and
• Consequences and risk metrics,
ensuring improved coherence across the full risk chain.
The METIS project delivered major innovations in tools and methodologies for the seismic safety assessment of nuclear reactors, contributing to establish a new state of the art by strengthening technology transfer from the research community to industry.
The project developed, improved, and widely disseminated open‑source tools covering seismic hazard, fragility, and risk assessment. The project developed and built on existing open‑source, reproducible tools and workflows responding to industrial needs, fostering collaboration and long‑term sustainability of results. METIS introduced new approaches to test and update engineering models through comparison with experimental data and experience feedback.
Eventually, METIS implemented advanced approches for uncertainty quantification and propagation from hazard to fragility and risk.
In response to evolving safety requirements following the Fukushima accident and rapid scientific progress in earthquake engineering, METIS contributed to optimising the safety, resilience, and competitiveness of existing and future reactors.
Against the backdrop of a nuclear renaissance in Europe and worldwide, the strong involvement of young researchers and engineers was a key factor to the project’s success. Through dedicated training schools, workshops, and dissemination activities, METIS actively contributed to educating the next generation of nuclear safety experts and strengthening links between academia, industry, and regulators.
Finally, the METIS common case study provided a shared testbed to evaluate the feasibility and cost–benefit of innovative approaches, while the external peer review by the Advisory Board and independent experts delivered valuable feedback that informed the project’s final conclusions and recommendations.
It has been the mission of the METIS project to bridge the gap between advanced research in earthquake engineering and the practical needs of the nuclear industry.
Work Performed
Over the 57-month duration of the project, the METIS consortium—comprising 15 partners from 9 countries—executed a comprehensive research and development program:
• Hazard Characterization: METIS partners developed advanced methods for Vector Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (VPSHA) and implemented it in openquake software. We also, implemented the CS-approach and investigated the inclusion of aftershock sequences into traditional hazard models.
• Site Response & Ground motion : project has developed and promoted advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads on rock. A comprehensive procedure for the uncertainty propagation in 1D site response analyses was developed.
• Fragility: METIS integrated Bayesian approaches and advances uncertainty quantification and propagation approaches to update fragility curves for critical components, moving away from overly conservative assumptions toward realistic, data-driven performance estimates.
• PSA & Risk Quantification: We built a streamlined toolset for uncertainty propagation, connecting hazard and fragility data directly into the risk quantification stage to calculate Core Damage Frequency (CDF) with higher confidence.
• The METIS Hybrid Case Study: To validate tools, METIS partners conducted a massive hybrid case study. This involved applying new and improved methodologies to a model of a Ukrainian VVER-1000 plant using seismic data from Central Italy, providing a rigorous "stress test" for our integrated analysis chain.
• Open-Source Software Development: A major pillar of our work was the "OpenMETIS" initiative. METIS has delivered new or improved opensource tools (based on openquake, code_aster, SCRAM) for the full analysis chain from seismic hazard to fragility and risk assessment.
Main Results Achieved, Exploitation and Dissemination
The METIS project contributed to improve the state of the art for realistic seismic response for fragility and risk assessments. By replacing conservatism with "best-estimate" physics and robust statistics.
• Physics-based simulation approaches were developed to increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
• Integrated Analysis Chain: A fully consistent path from rock-level hazard to system-level risk has been established. The conducted pilot studies had the goal of eliminating and inconsistencies that often occur at the interface between seismologists and engineers.
• Advanced Software Toolkit: We successfully released several open-source tools, including:
• PyPSHATest: For testing and comparing PSHA models against historical observations.
• PRA Uncertainty propagation Tool: A framework for managing seismic PSA data and performing Boolean risk computations.
• Community & Technology Transfer: Through the METIS Final Symposium and various summer schools and training sessions for engineers, we have trained a new generation of safety engineers and ensured that our research is directly exploitable by industry end-users, SMEs, and regulators.
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals, increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers
The deliverables can be downloaded on the METIS website https://metis-h2020.eu/(opens in new window).
Data and reports related to the data, simulation tools and the METIS case study are available through openMETIS Zendo community: https://zenodo.org/communities/openmetis(opens in new window)
New codes and tools developed in METIS are available on openMETIS gitlab repository: https://gitlab.pam-retd.fr/openmetis(opens in new window)
In particular, the Final Handbook, deliverable D2.5 is a comprehensive document summarizing the project and it’s key finding, results and recommendations.
Dissemination includes:
• Conferences: Special sessions were organized at WCEE 2025 in Milano, Italy and at SMiRT26 in Berlin; 19 conference communications presented at relevant conferences such as ECEE, WCEE, SMiRT, FISA-EURADWASTE
• Scientific papers : 14 journal publications
• Training: 4 Summer schools, Code_aster training session (basic and seismic analyses), Training for young researchers and engineers were organized
The use of the opensource tools facilitates uptake and acceptance of the methods. Project partners benefit from the possibility to use and further build on these models and software developments, even beyond the project.
Work Performed
Over the 57-month duration of the project, the METIS consortium—comprising 15 partners from 9 countries—executed a comprehensive research and development program:
• Hazard Characterization: METIS partners developed advanced methods for Vector Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (VPSHA) and implemented it in openquake software. We also, implemented the CS-approach and investigated the inclusion of aftershock sequences into traditional hazard models.
• Site Response & Ground motion : project has developed and promoted advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads on rock. A comprehensive procedure for the uncertainty propagation in 1D site response analyses was developed.
• Fragility: METIS integrated Bayesian approaches and advances uncertainty quantification and propagation approaches to update fragility curves for critical components, moving away from overly conservative assumptions toward realistic, data-driven performance estimates.
• PSA & Risk Quantification: We built a streamlined toolset for uncertainty propagation, connecting hazard and fragility data directly into the risk quantification stage to calculate Core Damage Frequency (CDF) with higher confidence.
• The METIS Hybrid Case Study: To validate tools, METIS partners conducted a massive hybrid case study. This involved applying new and improved methodologies to a model of a Ukrainian VVER-1000 plant using seismic data from Central Italy, providing a rigorous "stress test" for our integrated analysis chain.
• Open-Source Software Development: A major pillar of our work was the "OpenMETIS" initiative. METIS has delivered new or improved opensource tools (based on openquake, code_aster, SCRAM) for the full analysis chain from seismic hazard to fragility and risk assessment.
Main Results Achieved, Exploitation and Dissemination
The METIS project contributed to improve the state of the art for realistic seismic response for fragility and risk assessments. By replacing conservatism with "best-estimate" physics and robust statistics.
• Physics-based simulation approaches were developed to increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
• Integrated Analysis Chain: A fully consistent path from rock-level hazard to system-level risk has been established. The conducted pilot studies had the goal of eliminating and inconsistencies that often occur at the interface between seismologists and engineers.
• Advanced Software Toolkit: We successfully released several open-source tools, including:
• PyPSHATest: For testing and comparing PSHA models against historical observations.
• PRA Uncertainty propagation Tool: A framework for managing seismic PSA data and performing Boolean risk computations.
• Community & Technology Transfer: Through the METIS Final Symposium and various summer schools and training sessions for engineers, we have trained a new generation of safety engineers and ensured that our research is directly exploitable by industry end-users, SMEs, and regulators.
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals, increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers
The deliverables can be downloaded on the METIS website https://metis-h2020.eu/(opens in new window).
Data and reports related to the data, simulation tools and the METIS case study are available through openMETIS Zendo community: https://zenodo.org/communities/openmetis(opens in new window)
New codes and tools developed in METIS are available on openMETIS gitlab repository: https://gitlab.pam-retd.fr/openmetis(opens in new window)
In particular, the Final Handbook, deliverable D2.5 is a comprehensive document summarizing the project and it’s key finding, results and recommendations.
Dissemination includes:
• Conferences: Special sessions were organized at WCEE 2025 in Milano, Italy and at SMiRT26 in Berlin; 19 conference communications presented at relevant conferences such as ECEE, WCEE, SMiRT, FISA-EURADWASTE
• Scientific papers : 14 journal publications
• Training: 4 Summer schools, Code_aster training session (basic and seismic analyses), Training for young researchers and engineers were organized
The use of the opensource tools facilitates uptake and acceptance of the methods. Project partners benefit from the possibility to use and further build on these models and software developments, even beyond the project.
One major impact achieved is the creation of visibility of the project in the international scientific and industrial community targeted by METIS.
The need to develop both scientific high-level but industrially feasible methods and user friendly tools for seismic risk assessment of NPPP is shared not only by the project partners but also with larger community of end users.
METIS has delivered new or improved opensource tools (based on openquake, code_aster, SCRAM) for the full analysis chain from seismic hazard to fragility and risk assessment.
From a technical point of view METIS has achieved major advancements for more accurate and physical description of seismic load, going largely beyond the state of the art.
In particular the project has developed and promoted advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads.
This required innovation in tools and methods for seismic hazard assesssment and seismic record selection. In this framework, physics-based simulation approaches were also developed to supplement databases and increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
The following impacts have been achieved:
• New business opportunities created for METIS partners and other SME involved in expertise in seismic PSA through new and improved opensource codes and tools. Both academic partners and SME have started exploiting new opensource software tools to develop new expertise and provide scientific consulting to industry.
• Numerous publications in scientific peer reviewed journals and organization of special sessions at WCEE and SMiRT confernces, new collaborations between industry and academia
• Crossfertilization by deploying and further developing the approaches in other sectors such as Insurance, Hydraulics, critical insfrastructures and industry
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals, increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers
• Training of new generations of engineers
The need to develop both scientific high-level but industrially feasible methods and user friendly tools for seismic risk assessment of NPPP is shared not only by the project partners but also with larger community of end users.
METIS has delivered new or improved opensource tools (based on openquake, code_aster, SCRAM) for the full analysis chain from seismic hazard to fragility and risk assessment.
From a technical point of view METIS has achieved major advancements for more accurate and physical description of seismic load, going largely beyond the state of the art.
In particular the project has developed and promoted advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads.
This required innovation in tools and methods for seismic hazard assesssment and seismic record selection. In this framework, physics-based simulation approaches were also developed to supplement databases and increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
The following impacts have been achieved:
• New business opportunities created for METIS partners and other SME involved in expertise in seismic PSA through new and improved opensource codes and tools. Both academic partners and SME have started exploiting new opensource software tools to develop new expertise and provide scientific consulting to industry.
• Numerous publications in scientific peer reviewed journals and organization of special sessions at WCEE and SMiRT confernces, new collaborations between industry and academia
• Crossfertilization by deploying and further developing the approaches in other sectors such as Insurance, Hydraulics, critical insfrastructures and industry
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals, increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers
• Training of new generations of engineers