Periodic Reporting for period 2 - METIS (METHODS AND TOOLS INNOVATIONS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2021-09-01 al 2023-02-28
The major goal of METIS project is to propose innovations in tools and methodologies for seismic safety assessment of reactors and to develop a new state of the art, in particular by supporting technology transfer from the research community to the industry.
The project aims at developing common guidelines for seismic safety assessment at the European level, in line with international practice and consensus, so as to provide a new set of state-of-the-art approaches, promoting good practices for conducting seismic PSAs.
Given the concurrent occurrence of new safety requirements following the Fukushima accident and scientific advancement in the field of earthquake engineering, METIS will help to optimise the use of existing and future reactors and will contribute to assure safety and competitiveness of the European nuclear power.
In this respect, the high level objectivsof the project are:
1) Develop, improve, disseminate open source tools for seismic hazard, fragility and risk assessment
2) Testing model performance by comparison to data and model updating,
3) Uncertainty quantification, propagation and communication
4) Improve state of the art in seismic risk assessment and disseminate best practice to engineering
The project aims at developing common guidelines for seismic safety assessment at the European level, in line with international practice and consensus, so as to provide a new set of state-of-the-art approaches, promoting good practices for conducting seismic PSAs.
Given the concurrent occurrence of new safety requirements following the Fukushima accident and scientific advancement in the field of earthquake engineering, METIS will help to optimise the use of existing and future reactors and will contribute to assure safety and competitiveness of the European nuclear power.
In this respect, the high level objectivsof the project are:
1) Develop, improve, disseminate open source tools for seismic hazard, fragility and risk assessment
2) Testing model performance by comparison to data and model updating,
3) Uncertainty quantification, propagation and communication
4) Improve state of the art in seismic risk assessment and disseminate best practice to engineering
The first year of the project was dedicated to set up project organization and communication, all the major dissemination tools have created. Social media accounts have been created on LinkedIn and ResearchGate. Likewise the website, they are regularly updated with the latest news from the project and the partners. The technical work and exchanges between WPs have been initiated. Moreover, project working groups related to uncertainty propagation and testing seismic hazard results against data and the simulation of ground motion databases have started.
The main achievements in the second reporting period are:
• Improved and new tools to compute probabilistic seismic hazard with clustered seismicity, conditional spectra and vector valued IMs have been delivered and are available to the public via the openquake github depository.
• The working group on physics-based ground motion simulation has delivered overview over possible approaches, advantages and drawbacks, the results and strategy adopted for METIS case study are reported in deliverable D4.3.
• Criteria for selecting rock-hazard consistent ground motions for mainshock and clustered seismicity conditions have been developed, the approach together with comprehensive parametric studies and robustness analyses are available in D5.1.
• For SSCs response and fragility, a comprehensive V&V procedure including the consideration of uncertainty has been developed and shared with the consortium.
• The first version of METIS PSA tool is available (based on Andromeda-Scram) and has been shared with METIS consortium and EUG.
Another major step in the second year of the project was the data collection and the development of the METIS case study models. A hybrid “virtual” case study, consisting of the analysis of the Ukrainian Zaporizyha NPP but using Italian site and hazard data has been chosen. Regarding PSHA for Italian site, the Openquake hazard model has been created with and shared with consortium together with its documentation. Finite element models have been created for relevant SSCs for METIS case study.
Moreover, the consortium has worked in an interdisciplinary framework on the
• Development of coherent approach to account for uncertainty in site response and SSI analysis
• Development of analysis strategy to deal with aftershocks in the PSA analysis chain from hazard to risk
Regarding the training of students and young professionals, the project organized annual summer schools (Greece, Italy) as well as thematic workshops ans training sessions to dissemoinagter and share the new and old knowledge.
The main achievements in the second reporting period are:
• Improved and new tools to compute probabilistic seismic hazard with clustered seismicity, conditional spectra and vector valued IMs have been delivered and are available to the public via the openquake github depository.
• The working group on physics-based ground motion simulation has delivered overview over possible approaches, advantages and drawbacks, the results and strategy adopted for METIS case study are reported in deliverable D4.3.
• Criteria for selecting rock-hazard consistent ground motions for mainshock and clustered seismicity conditions have been developed, the approach together with comprehensive parametric studies and robustness analyses are available in D5.1.
• For SSCs response and fragility, a comprehensive V&V procedure including the consideration of uncertainty has been developed and shared with the consortium.
• The first version of METIS PSA tool is available (based on Andromeda-Scram) and has been shared with METIS consortium and EUG.
Another major step in the second year of the project was the data collection and the development of the METIS case study models. A hybrid “virtual” case study, consisting of the analysis of the Ukrainian Zaporizyha NPP but using Italian site and hazard data has been chosen. Regarding PSHA for Italian site, the Openquake hazard model has been created with and shared with consortium together with its documentation. Finite element models have been created for relevant SSCs for METIS case study.
Moreover, the consortium has worked in an interdisciplinary framework on the
• Development of coherent approach to account for uncertainty in site response and SSI analysis
• Development of analysis strategy to deal with aftershocks in the PSA analysis chain from hazard to risk
Regarding the training of students and young professionals, the project organized annual summer schools (Greece, Italy) as well as thematic workshops ans training sessions to dissemoinagter and share the new and old knowledge.
The overall framework for probabilistic safety assessment is well established but the disciplinary partitioning has led to a clustering of approaches. METIS is working in a multidisciplinary framework proposing new tools for uncertainty propagation and site specific analyses with improved physical models that will be applied in the different parts of safety assessment.
METIS addresses the 3 ingredients of seismic safety assessment in an overall approach: seismic hazard; structural and equipment fragility analyses; integration in the full PSA framework to determine plant failure probabilities and comparison to pertinent safety criteria.
One major impact achieved since the kick-off is the creation of visibility of the project in the international scientific and industrial community targeted by METIS. The need to develop both scientific high-level but industrially feasible methods and user friendly tools for seismic risk assessment of NPPP is shared not only by the project partners but also with larger community of end users.
From a technical point of view we expect major advancements, related to more accurate and physical description of seismic load, going largely beyond the state of the art. In particular the project develops and promotes advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads. This requires innovation in seismic hazard assesssment, the consideration of site effects and the record selection. In this framework, physics-based simulation approaches are developed to supplement databases and increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
METIS partners also develop comprehensive strategies for extended seismic PRA including uncertainty propagation from hazard and fragility to risk and the evaluation of possible impact of cascading hazared such as the occurance of an aftershocks in close timeframe to the main event.
Generally speaking, the following impacts targeted:
• Economic impact & Impact on the competitiveness of European nuclear industry: New business opportunities are under creation for METIS partners and other SME involved in expertise in seismic PSA through this new tool.
• Scientific impacts, Innovation capacity and new knowledge: Creation of mutual awareness, on the one hand about particular problems in nuclear engineering requiring R&D and on the other hand recent advances in the scientific community
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals : increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers (in particular Phd students)
• Academic partners and SME have started exploiting new opensource software tools to develop new expertise and provide scientific consulting to industry.
• Training of new generations of engineers: Several Phd have been hired by METIS partners, training sessions related to code_aster and openquake software as well as the new METIS PRA tool have been organized.
METIS addresses the 3 ingredients of seismic safety assessment in an overall approach: seismic hazard; structural and equipment fragility analyses; integration in the full PSA framework to determine plant failure probabilities and comparison to pertinent safety criteria.
One major impact achieved since the kick-off is the creation of visibility of the project in the international scientific and industrial community targeted by METIS. The need to develop both scientific high-level but industrially feasible methods and user friendly tools for seismic risk assessment of NPPP is shared not only by the project partners but also with larger community of end users.
From a technical point of view we expect major advancements, related to more accurate and physical description of seismic load, going largely beyond the state of the art. In particular the project develops and promotes advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads. This requires innovation in seismic hazard assesssment, the consideration of site effects and the record selection. In this framework, physics-based simulation approaches are developed to supplement databases and increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
METIS partners also develop comprehensive strategies for extended seismic PRA including uncertainty propagation from hazard and fragility to risk and the evaluation of possible impact of cascading hazared such as the occurance of an aftershocks in close timeframe to the main event.
Generally speaking, the following impacts targeted:
• Economic impact & Impact on the competitiveness of European nuclear industry: New business opportunities are under creation for METIS partners and other SME involved in expertise in seismic PSA through this new tool.
• Scientific impacts, Innovation capacity and new knowledge: Creation of mutual awareness, on the one hand about particular problems in nuclear engineering requiring R&D and on the other hand recent advances in the scientific community
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals : increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers (in particular Phd students)
• Academic partners and SME have started exploiting new opensource software tools to develop new expertise and provide scientific consulting to industry.
• Training of new generations of engineers: Several Phd have been hired by METIS partners, training sessions related to code_aster and openquake software as well as the new METIS PRA tool have been organized.