compound Climate Extremes in North America and Europe: from dynamics to predictability

Project Information

CENAE

Grant agreement ID: 948309

DOI 10.3030/948309

EC signature date 25 August 2020

Start date 1 March 2021

End date 28 February 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost € 1 492 660,00

EU contribution € 1 492 660,00

Coordinated by

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (22)

The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes

Author(s): Simon H. Lee, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107161

Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?

Author(s): Assaf Hochman, Gabriele Messori, Julian F. Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, Christian M. Grams
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2020, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095574

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021

Author(s): Davide Faranda; Stella Bourdin; Mireia Ginesta; Meriem Krouma; Robin Noyelle; Flavio Pons; Pascal Yiou; Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 6, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-9

Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe

Author(s): Galfi, M., Messori, G.
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf

Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes

Author(s): Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0295.1

A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro-AtlanticWeather Regimes

Author(s): Gabriele Messori, Joshua Dorrington
Published in: Geophysical Rsearch Letters, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104696

Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author(s): Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, Georgios Zittis
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022

A Quantile Generalized Additive Approach for CompoundClimate Extremes: Pan‐Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study

Author(s): Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori, Shaobo Jin
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023ms003753

Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems

Author(s): Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0046.1

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling

Author(s): Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe

Author(s): Gabriele Messori; Davide Faranda
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 3, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101008

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, V. Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts

Author(s): Stephen Jewson, Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Forecasting, 2022, Page(s) 125–142, ISSN 0882-8156
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-21-0086.1

Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems

Author(s): Flavio Pons, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda
Published in: Chaos, 2023, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0152370

Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells

Author(s): Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, Vivien Wendt
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO-CORDEX Precipitation

Author(s): Stephen Jewson, Gabriele Messori, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, Maximiliano Sassi
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003038

On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes

Author(s): Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023, ISSN 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Author(s): Julia Mömken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim Pinto
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Modulation of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones and extreme weather in Europe during North American cold spells

Author(s): Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100629

Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting

Author(s): Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024

Multiple large-scale dynamical pathways for pan-Atlantic compound cold and windy extremes

Author(s): Jacopo Riboldi, Richard Leeding, Antonio Segalini, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl102528