compound Climate Extremes in North America and Europe: from dynamics to predictability

Project Information

CENAE

Grant agreement ID: 948309

DOI

10.3030/948309

EC signature date 25 August 2020

Start date 1 March 2021

End date 28 February 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 492 660,00

EU contribution

€ 1 492 660,00

Coordinated by

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (35)

Disentangling density and geometry in weather regime dimensions using stochastic twins

Author(s): Paul Platzer, Bertrand Chapron, Gabriele Messori
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 8, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w

The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes

Author(s): Simon H. Lee, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107161

Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change

Author(s): Gabriele Messori, Derrick Muheki, Fulden Batibeniz, Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Wim Thiery
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 13, 2025, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006325

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Author(s): D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Published in: Physical Review E, Issue 110, 2024, ISSN 2470-0045
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?

Author(s): Assaf Hochman, Gabriele Messori, Julian F. Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, Christian M. Grams
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2020, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095574

CLIMK–WINDS: a new database of extreme European winter windstorms

Author(s): Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 17, 2025, Page(s) 4431-4453, ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021

Author(s): Davide Faranda; Stella Bourdin; Mireia Ginesta; Meriem Krouma; Robin Noyelle; Flavio Pons; Pascal Yiou; Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 6, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-9

Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe

Author(s): Galfi, M., Messori, G.
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf

Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast

Author(s): Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 17, 2024, Page(s) 7915-7962, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024

A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations

Author(s): Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 5, 2024, Page(s) 997-1012, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024

Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes

Author(s): Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0295.1

A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro-AtlanticWeather Regimes

Author(s): Gabriele Messori, Joshua Dorrington
Published in: Geophysical Rsearch Letters, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104696

The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa

Author(s): Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, Wim Thiery
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, Page(s) 429-466, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-429-2024

Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author(s): Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, Georgios Zittis
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022

Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics

Author(s): Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, Alexandre M. Ramos
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2025, Page(s) 1207-1225, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024

A Quantile Generalized Additive Approach for CompoundClimate Extremes: Pan‐Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study

Author(s): Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori, Shaobo Jin
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023ms003753

Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems

Author(s): Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0046.1

Moisture Sources Throughout the Life Cycle of an Atmospheric River: Storm Dennis Case Study

Author(s): Ferran Lopez‐Marti, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori, Anna Rutgersson
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 130, 2025, ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024jd042876

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling

Author(s): Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe

Author(s): Gabriele Messori; Davide Faranda
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 3, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101008

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini, V. Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

Explaining Pan‐Atlantic Cold and Windy Extremes Using an Analog‐Based Approach

Author(s): Jacopo Riboldi, Joshua Dorrington, Meriem Krouma, Richard Leeding, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 130, 2025, ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024jd041513

Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts

Author(s): Stephen Jewson, Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Forecasting, 2022, Page(s) 125–142, ISSN 0882-8156
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-21-0086.1

Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems

Author(s): Flavio Pons, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda
Published in: Chaos, 2023, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0152370

Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells

Author(s): Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, Vivien Wendt
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO-CORDEX Precipitation

Author(s): Stephen Jewson, Gabriele Messori, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, Maximiliano Sassi
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003038

On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes

Author(s): Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023, ISSN 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Author(s): Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 150, 2025, Page(s) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific

Author(s): Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 6, 2025, Page(s) 521-548, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Author(s): Julia Mömken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim Pinto
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic

Author(s): Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 16, 2025, Page(s) 169-187, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-16-169-2025

Modulation of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones and extreme weather in Europe during North American cold spells

Author(s): Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100629

Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting

Author(s): Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024

Multiple large-scale dynamical pathways for pan-Atlantic compound cold and windy extremes

Author(s): Jacopo Riboldi, Richard Leeding, Antonio Segalini, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl102528