compound Climate Extremes in North America and Europe: from dynamics to predictability

Información del proyecto

CENAE

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 948309

DOI

10.3030/948309

Fecha de la firma de la CE 25 Agosto 2020

Fecha de inicio 1 Marzo 2021

Fecha de finalización 28 Febrero 2026

Financiado con arreglo a

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Coste total

€ 1 492 660,00

Aportación de la UE

€ 1 492 660,00

Coordinado por

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Publicaciones

Peer reviewed articles (35)

Disentangling density and geometry in weather regime dimensions using stochastic twins

Autores: Paul Platzer, Bertrand Chapron, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 8, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w

The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes

Autores: Simon H. Lee, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107161

Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change

Autores: Gabriele Messori, Derrick Muheki, Fulden Batibeniz, Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Wim Thiery
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición 13, 2025, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006325

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Autores: D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Publicado en: Physical Review E, Edición 110, 2024, ISSN 2470-0045
Editor: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?

Autores: Assaf Hochman, Gabriele Messori, Julian F. Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, Christian M. Grams
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 48, 2020, ISSN 1944-8007
Editor: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095574

CLIMK–WINDS: a new database of extreme European winter windstorms

Autores: Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición 17, 2025, Página(s) 4431-4453, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021

Autores: Davide Faranda; Stella Bourdin; Mireia Ginesta; Meriem Krouma; Robin Noyelle; Flavio Pons; Pascal Yiou; Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición 6, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-9

Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe

Autores: Galfi, M., Messori, G.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf

Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast

Autores: Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 17, 2024, Página(s) 7915-7962, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024

A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations

Autores: Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición 5, 2024, Página(s) 997-1012, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024

Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes

Autores: Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0295.1

A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro-AtlanticWeather Regimes

Autores: Gabriele Messori, Joshua Dorrington
Publicado en: Geophysical Rsearch Letters, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104696

The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa

Autores: Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, Wim Thiery
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15, 2024, Página(s) 429-466, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-429-2024

Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Autores: Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, Georgios Zittis
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022

Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics

Autores: Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, Alexandre M. Ramos
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 15, 2025, Página(s) 1207-1225, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024

A Quantile Generalized Additive Approach for CompoundClimate Extremes: Pan‐Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study

Autores: Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori, Shaobo Jin
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023ms003753

Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems

Autores: Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0046.1

Moisture Sources Throughout the Life Cycle of an Atmospheric River: Storm Dennis Case Study

Autores: Ferran Lopez‐Marti, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori, Anna Rutgersson
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición 130, 2025, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024jd042876

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling

Autores: Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe

Autores: Gabriele Messori; Davide Faranda
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 3, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101008

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave

Autores: Valerio Lucarini, V. Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

Explaining Pan‐Atlantic Cold and Windy Extremes Using an Analog‐Based Approach

Autores: Jacopo Riboldi, Joshua Dorrington, Meriem Krouma, Richard Leeding, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Edición 130, 2025, ISSN 2169-897X
Editor: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024jd041513

Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts

Autores: Stephen Jewson, Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Forecasting, 2022, Página(s) 125–142, ISSN 0882-8156
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-21-0086.1

Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems

Autores: Flavio Pons, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda
Publicado en: Chaos, 2023, ISSN 1054-1500
Editor: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0152370

Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells

Autores: Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, Vivien Wendt
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO-CORDEX Precipitation

Autores: Stephen Jewson, Gabriele Messori, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, Maximiliano Sassi
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003038

On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes

Autores: Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Autores: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Publicado en: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023, ISSN 1091-6490
Editor: National Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Autores: Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Edición 150, 2025, Página(s) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Editor: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific

Autores: Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición 6, 2025, Página(s) 521-548, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Autores: Julia Mömken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim Pinto
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic

Autores: Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 16, 2025, Página(s) 169-187, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-16-169-2025

Modulation of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones and extreme weather in Europe during North American cold spells

Autores: Richard Leeding, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100629

Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting

Autores: Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, 2024, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024

Multiple large-scale dynamical pathways for pan-Atlantic compound cold and windy extremes

Autores: Jacopo Riboldi, Richard Leeding, Antonio Segalini, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl102528