Hunting for Voters: The Impact of Data-Driven Campaigning on Democracy

Project Information

HUNTING

Grant agreement ID: 949754

DOI

10.3030/949754

Project closed

EC signature date 4 May 2021

Start date 1 June 2021

End date 31 May 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 499 415,00

EU contribution

€ 1 499 415,00

Coordinated by

WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY
Netherlands

Periodic Reporting for period 3 - HUNTING (Hunting for Voters: The Impact of Data-Driven Campaigning on Democracy)

Reporting period: 2023-10-01 to 2025-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Data-driven political campaigns are on the rise. Concerns have been voiced that practices like online political microtargeting techniques are harmful to democracy. These concerns grew after the unexpected outcome of the US presidential elections in 2016, the Brexit vote in the UK, and several recent elections in Europe. However, it is unclear if data-driven campaigns using online microtargeting techniques are an actual threat to democracy. Political microtargeting can invade privacy, exclude social groups, and depress turnout during elections. However, political targeting may, for instance, reach citizens who are difficult to reach via traditional campaigning, as it can also provide relevant information on issues that individuals find important. In that way, it could mobilize more people to vote, leading to increased inclusiveness and diversity. HUNTING investigates the negative and positive effects of online data-driven targeting and digital persuasion in five countries, and the project examines the conditions under which data-driven techniques affect citizens’ attitudes, opinions, and, eventually, voting behavior. In light of ongoing political and societal turmoil, investigating how citizens may be persuaded in a changing media landscape has never been of more importance.

The overarching objective of this project is to identify the conditions and the extent to which data-driven online political microtargeting affects citizens’ attitudes and opinions, and eventually voting behavior. The project addresses three research questions: To what extent and under which conditions does data-driven political targeting have a beneficial impact, and under which conditions a harmful impact on democracy? And how can the beneficial effects trump the harmful effects? The project is novel as it systematically analyses the impact of data-driving campaigning, providing a theoretical dual-processing model, while using a mixture of research methods and a comparative perspective. As a whole, the project will offer a deeper understanding of the global impact of online data-driven targeting techniques during elections in several countries.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The work performed from the start of the project involved successful data collection within the project, focusing on periods during and outside of elections in the US, India, and the Netherlands. These efforts involved large-scale longitudinal surveys, mobile experience sampling designs with data donations, survey-experimental studies using mock Instagram timelines, content analyses, and eye-tracking studies in the Lab. Especially data collection employing an experienced sampling method combined with data donations is a state-of-the-art way to capture the actual political content (in this case ads) that people are exposed om an increasingly hybrid media environment.

This resulted in several studies. Preliminary findings suggest that political ads that match voters’ political preferences are liked more. We found similar effects for ads that match the topic that voters find important. In addition, while some political ads enhance how important issues are perceived in the Netherlands (i.e. people see the issues that are mentioned in the ads as important for society), they do not have the same effect in the United States. Furthermore, we also found that a higher self-reported exposure to ads, helped people to identify the main political players and their parties (i.e. learning effects of ads). We also found that ad congruency mattered too. Mistargeted ads based on political preference led people to list more thoughts about the ad as well as its content compared to ads that match political preference. Furthermore, in the eye-tracking studies, we found some preferences of voters do predict visual attention paid by people to all political ads. These (preliminary) findings were disseminated to the public as well, both through (popular) media and academic audiences via scientific international conferences.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

In the remaining part of this project, we aim to focus on moving the literature beyond the state. We continue to use innovative methods and extend our most recent findings. This year we are planning to collect data during the European elections. We want to combine the element of targeting with misinformation and include an intervention to help citizens cope with misinformation. Furthermore, the subprojects will be developed further; data will be collected in India and we're looking into new possibilities of data collection, eye-tracking data will be analyzed and a new eye-tracking study will be set up and the interventions that will find a place within the living lab will be further developed. Later on, when the project is nearing its end, drawing on the subprojects and the answers to the main questions, the fourth and last subproject will synthesize the findings and will map the findings on different democratic theories. In other words, it will build a bridge between political realities and democratic theory.