Periodic Reporting for period 3 - SERENDI-PV (Smooth, REliable aNd Dispatchable Integration of PV in EU Grids)
Reporting period: 2023-10-01 to 2024-09-30
Photovoltaic (PV) energy is expected to play a major role in the generation of electricity in the world and to become one of the major sources of electrical power. In order for PV to reach a utility-friendly high-penetration level in the grids in the next decade, two important challenges need to be addressed: (1) reducing the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) for PV and (2) to make it possible to integrate a rapidly increasing share of PV power into the grid, up to high penetration levels.
The reduction of LCoE depends on several factors. The most sensitive parameter is the location (estimated energy yield), followed by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The PV industry will be able to reduce the WACC by conveying more trust to the financial sector. The WACC will be reduced by reducing the uncertainties (thus, increasing the trust) in the whole value chain.
First, SERENDI-PV will reduce the uncertainty thanks to the higher accuracy of modelling for the new PV technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) allowing better energy yield assessments.
Second, the better-quality controls in the field and in the lab will increase PV project’s quality & lifetime and to reduce their performance uncertainty and to improve bankability of the new PV technologies. Higher quality, lower uncertainty and risks in the PV projects will be achieved, what will drive to better bankability.
Third, the uncertainties in the system reliability will be addressed by applying advanced fault diagnosis in the PV plants, with special focus in the new technologies, and by using the predictive maintenance of the most complex components in PV system and with the highest impact on energy availability: PV inverter and batteries. This will be achieved by developing digital twins that will provide a better understanding of potential failures and aging processes of these components allowing to anticipate them.
Fourth, the reduction of uncertainties by means of improving PV power forecasting (focusing on short-term and nowcasting) of new PV technologies and in case of specific atmospheric events (snow, dust, frog) will be addressed by SERENDI-PV. The new technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) will enhance bankability owing to lower values and better traceability of uncertainty on PV energy yields.
In a nutshell, the uncertainty reduction achieved by SERENDI-PV will be achieved through several improvements, including better quality controls, better component and system reliability, and better energy yield assessments. Moreover, SERENDI-PV covers the whole value-chain of a PV project and therefore the results obtained are strongly linked with each other.
The second ranked challenge for PV generation is to be able to increase its grid penetration rates to very high levels without compromising the technical and financial feasibility of grids. A first step would be to ensure that PV does not introduce prohibitive costs on the grid management. But the actual goal is to bring cost-effective grid management solution provided by PV: grid voltage management through reactive and active power control and grid frequency management by active power control. This can be achieved by controlling PV inverters with reduced costs and efforts by developing standardized smart grid solutions based on the PV data. Another approach is hybridising with energy storage for additional ancillary services which has the potential to lead to a cost-effective reduction of the grid connection cost. In general, there will be the need for innovative monitoring and management of millions of centralized and distributed power sources to maintain system stability bringing in parallel the opportunity of additional revenues for PV. New revenue streams for PV will in fact be necessary to maintain profitability as further volume growth reduces costs but also exerts pressure on market prices as prices drop when large amounts of zero marginal cost PV are put on the power exchanges.
The reduction of LCoE depends on several factors. The most sensitive parameter is the location (estimated energy yield), followed by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The PV industry will be able to reduce the WACC by conveying more trust to the financial sector. The WACC will be reduced by reducing the uncertainties (thus, increasing the trust) in the whole value chain.
First, SERENDI-PV will reduce the uncertainty thanks to the higher accuracy of modelling for the new PV technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) allowing better energy yield assessments.
Second, the better-quality controls in the field and in the lab will increase PV project’s quality & lifetime and to reduce their performance uncertainty and to improve bankability of the new PV technologies. Higher quality, lower uncertainty and risks in the PV projects will be achieved, what will drive to better bankability.
Third, the uncertainties in the system reliability will be addressed by applying advanced fault diagnosis in the PV plants, with special focus in the new technologies, and by using the predictive maintenance of the most complex components in PV system and with the highest impact on energy availability: PV inverter and batteries. This will be achieved by developing digital twins that will provide a better understanding of potential failures and aging processes of these components allowing to anticipate them.
Fourth, the reduction of uncertainties by means of improving PV power forecasting (focusing on short-term and nowcasting) of new PV technologies and in case of specific atmospheric events (snow, dust, frog) will be addressed by SERENDI-PV. The new technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) will enhance bankability owing to lower values and better traceability of uncertainty on PV energy yields.
In a nutshell, the uncertainty reduction achieved by SERENDI-PV will be achieved through several improvements, including better quality controls, better component and system reliability, and better energy yield assessments. Moreover, SERENDI-PV covers the whole value-chain of a PV project and therefore the results obtained are strongly linked with each other.
The second ranked challenge for PV generation is to be able to increase its grid penetration rates to very high levels without compromising the technical and financial feasibility of grids. A first step would be to ensure that PV does not introduce prohibitive costs on the grid management. But the actual goal is to bring cost-effective grid management solution provided by PV: grid voltage management through reactive and active power control and grid frequency management by active power control. This can be achieved by controlling PV inverters with reduced costs and efforts by developing standardized smart grid solutions based on the PV data. Another approach is hybridising with energy storage for additional ancillary services which has the potential to lead to a cost-effective reduction of the grid connection cost. In general, there will be the need for innovative monitoring and management of millions of centralized and distributed power sources to maintain system stability bringing in parallel the opportunity of additional revenues for PV. New revenue streams for PV will in fact be necessary to maintain profitability as further volume growth reduces costs but also exerts pressure on market prices as prices drop when large amounts of zero marginal cost PV are put on the power exchanges.
The project achievements have been:
•Definition of relevant parameters for the assessment of the performance, reliability KPIs for the project’s assessment.
•Summarising the result of the innovations demonstrations on the technical KPIs.
•Assessment and quantification of the innovations impact on the performance and profitability KPIs.
•Comprehensive life cycle assessment for innovative PV systems (floating, BIPV, bifacial, tandem) were conducted with prospective LCA
•Roadmap for solar PV for Europe.
9 innovations of SIMULATION & MODELLING FOR PV SYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS integrated into the partners tools
13 innovations of MONITORING AND DATA ANALYTICS FOR FAULT DIAGNOSIS AND O&M integrated into the partners tools:
11 innovations of ON-SITE TESTING EQUIPMENT AND PROCEDURES FOR QUALITY CONTROL integrated into the partners tools:
18 innovations of POWER FORECASTING integrated into the partners tools,
9 innovations of HIGH PV INTEGRATION INTO UTILITY GRIDS AND MARKETS integrated into the partners tools,
Development of a COLLABORATIVE MODELLING & MONITORING PLATFORM.
•demonstration of all the developed innovations (59) in different demo PV sites and reporting the results in different deliverables.
•Report on Global report on assessment of demonstration activities: summary of all the conducted demonstration activities
•Public report summarizing lessons learnt, approaches, actions, barriers encountered, results and experiences: summary of the project technologies, approaches, implemented actions, results and lessons learnt in a unique document supporting the dissemination of the project’s impacts to a broader audience.
•Participation in 18 major events
•Organization of 1 Final event in PVSEC 2024; 3 Webinars (200 attendees); 3 workshops
•Website: 4300 visits; more than150 posts per social media tool; •5 e-newsletters; 3 Leaflets; 1 Project video;
•21 Open-Source papers published in conference proceedings / workshops
•14 Open-Source Peer-Reviewed papers published in scientific magazines (6 in last period)
•1 Open-Source paper published in scientific magazines.
•exploitation routes / commercialization / IP exploitation of the 59 ERs
•Definition of relevant parameters for the assessment of the performance, reliability KPIs for the project’s assessment.
•Summarising the result of the innovations demonstrations on the technical KPIs.
•Assessment and quantification of the innovations impact on the performance and profitability KPIs.
•Comprehensive life cycle assessment for innovative PV systems (floating, BIPV, bifacial, tandem) were conducted with prospective LCA
•Roadmap for solar PV for Europe.
9 innovations of SIMULATION & MODELLING FOR PV SYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS integrated into the partners tools
13 innovations of MONITORING AND DATA ANALYTICS FOR FAULT DIAGNOSIS AND O&M integrated into the partners tools:
11 innovations of ON-SITE TESTING EQUIPMENT AND PROCEDURES FOR QUALITY CONTROL integrated into the partners tools:
18 innovations of POWER FORECASTING integrated into the partners tools,
9 innovations of HIGH PV INTEGRATION INTO UTILITY GRIDS AND MARKETS integrated into the partners tools,
Development of a COLLABORATIVE MODELLING & MONITORING PLATFORM.
•demonstration of all the developed innovations (59) in different demo PV sites and reporting the results in different deliverables.
•Report on Global report on assessment of demonstration activities: summary of all the conducted demonstration activities
•Public report summarizing lessons learnt, approaches, actions, barriers encountered, results and experiences: summary of the project technologies, approaches, implemented actions, results and lessons learnt in a unique document supporting the dissemination of the project’s impacts to a broader audience.
•Participation in 18 major events
•Organization of 1 Final event in PVSEC 2024; 3 Webinars (200 attendees); 3 workshops
•Website: 4300 visits; more than150 posts per social media tool; •5 e-newsletters; 3 Leaflets; 1 Project video;
•21 Open-Source papers published in conference proceedings / workshops
•14 Open-Source Peer-Reviewed papers published in scientific magazines (6 in last period)
•1 Open-Source paper published in scientific magazines.
•exploitation routes / commercialization / IP exploitation of the 59 ERs
The project’s aimed leap of knowledge and advance beyond today’s state-of-the-art concerns five “innovation pathways”:
1) Simulation, modelling and designs for better PV reliability, performance and profitability
2) Monitoring and image-based fault diagnosis for higher PV performance and optimized O&M
3) Quality control (QC) equipment and procedures for PV components and systems reliability
4) Mid-/short-term forecasting up to nowcasting for PV systems aggregations and optimized grid integration
5) Innovative business models for PV added revenue at high-penetration levels
The expected potential impacts of the project innovations are:
•Increase the reliability of grid-connected PV plants, individually, at components and system level and collectively as a fleet.
•Increase the performances of grid-connected PV systems
•Increase utility-friendly integration of PV - the possibility to integrate more PV in the grids by increasing the knowledge and accuracy of the PV fleet characteristics, capacities, energy production and services provision by grid operators
•Increase the profitability of grid-connected PV systems
•Accelerate PV development in Europe
1) Simulation, modelling and designs for better PV reliability, performance and profitability
2) Monitoring and image-based fault diagnosis for higher PV performance and optimized O&M
3) Quality control (QC) equipment and procedures for PV components and systems reliability
4) Mid-/short-term forecasting up to nowcasting for PV systems aggregations and optimized grid integration
5) Innovative business models for PV added revenue at high-penetration levels
The expected potential impacts of the project innovations are:
•Increase the reliability of grid-connected PV plants, individually, at components and system level and collectively as a fleet.
•Increase the performances of grid-connected PV systems
•Increase utility-friendly integration of PV - the possibility to integrate more PV in the grids by increasing the knowledge and accuracy of the PV fleet characteristics, capacities, energy production and services provision by grid operators
•Increase the profitability of grid-connected PV systems
•Accelerate PV development in Europe