Periodic Reporting for period 2 - SERENDI-PV (Smooth, REliable aNd Dispatchable Integration of PV in EU Grids)
Berichtszeitraum: 2022-04-01 bis 2023-09-30
Photovoltaic (PV) energy is expected to play a major role in the generation of electricity in the world and to become one of the major sources of electrical power. In order for PV to reach a utility-friendly high-penetration level in the grids in the next decade, two important challenges need to be addressed: (1) reducing the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) for PV and (2) to make it possible to integrate a rapidly increasing share of PV power into the grid, up to high penetration levels.
The reduction of LCoE depends on several factors. The most sensitive parameter is the location (estimated energy yield), followed by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The PV industry will be able to reduce the WACC by conveying more trust to the financial sector. The WACC will be reduced by reducing the uncertainties (thus, increasing the trust) in the whole value chain.
First, SERENDI-PV will reduce the uncertainty thanks to the higher accuracy of modelling for the new PV technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) allowing better energy yield assessments.
Second, the better-quality controls in the field and in the lab will increase PV project’s quality & lifetime and to reduce their performance uncertainty and to improve bankability of the new PV technologies. Higher quality, lower uncertainty and risks in the PV projects will be achieved, what will drive to better bankability.
Third, the uncertainties in the system reliability will be addressed by applying advanced fault diagnosis in the PV plants, with special focus in the new technologies, and by using the predictive maintenance of the most complex components in PV system and with the highest impact on energy availability: PV inverter and batteries. This will be achieved by developing digital twins that will provide a better understanding of potential failures and aging processes of these components allowing to anticipate them.
Fourth, the reduction of uncertainties by means of improving PV power forecasting (focusing on short-term and nowcasting) of new PV technologies and in case of specific atmospheric events (snow, dust, frog) will be addressed by SERENDI-PV. The new technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) will enhance bankability owing to lower values and better traceability of uncertainty on PV energy yields.
In a nutshell, the uncertainty reduction achieved by SERENDI-PV will be achieved through several improvements, including better quality controls, better component and system reliability, and better energy yield assessments. Moreover, SERENDI-PV covers the whole value-chain of a PV project and therefore the results obtained are strongly linked with each other.
The second ranked challenge for PV generation is to be able to increase its grid penetration rates to very high levels without compromising the technical and financial feasibility of grids. A first step would be to ensure that PV does not introduce prohibitive costs on the grid management. But the actual goal is to bring cost-effective grid management solution provided by PV: grid voltage management through reactive and active power control and grid frequency management by active power control. This can be achieved by controlling PV inverters with reduced costs and efforts by developing standardized smart grid solutions based on the PV data. Another approach is hybridising with energy storage for additional ancillary services which has the potential to lead to a cost-effective reduction of the grid connection cost. In general, there will be the need for innovative monitoring and management of millions of centralized and distributed power sources to maintain system stability bringing in parallel the opportunity of additional revenues for PV. New revenue streams for PV will in fact be necessary to maintain profitability as further volume growth reduces costs but also exerts pressure on market prices as prices drop when large amounts of zero marginal cost PV are put on the power exchanges.
The reduction of LCoE depends on several factors. The most sensitive parameter is the location (estimated energy yield), followed by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The PV industry will be able to reduce the WACC by conveying more trust to the financial sector. The WACC will be reduced by reducing the uncertainties (thus, increasing the trust) in the whole value chain.
First, SERENDI-PV will reduce the uncertainty thanks to the higher accuracy of modelling for the new PV technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) allowing better energy yield assessments.
Second, the better-quality controls in the field and in the lab will increase PV project’s quality & lifetime and to reduce their performance uncertainty and to improve bankability of the new PV technologies. Higher quality, lower uncertainty and risks in the PV projects will be achieved, what will drive to better bankability.
Third, the uncertainties in the system reliability will be addressed by applying advanced fault diagnosis in the PV plants, with special focus in the new technologies, and by using the predictive maintenance of the most complex components in PV system and with the highest impact on energy availability: PV inverter and batteries. This will be achieved by developing digital twins that will provide a better understanding of potential failures and aging processes of these components allowing to anticipate them.
Fourth, the reduction of uncertainties by means of improving PV power forecasting (focusing on short-term and nowcasting) of new PV technologies and in case of specific atmospheric events (snow, dust, frog) will be addressed by SERENDI-PV. The new technologies (bifacial PV, floating PV and BIPV) will enhance bankability owing to lower values and better traceability of uncertainty on PV energy yields.
In a nutshell, the uncertainty reduction achieved by SERENDI-PV will be achieved through several improvements, including better quality controls, better component and system reliability, and better energy yield assessments. Moreover, SERENDI-PV covers the whole value-chain of a PV project and therefore the results obtained are strongly linked with each other.
The second ranked challenge for PV generation is to be able to increase its grid penetration rates to very high levels without compromising the technical and financial feasibility of grids. A first step would be to ensure that PV does not introduce prohibitive costs on the grid management. But the actual goal is to bring cost-effective grid management solution provided by PV: grid voltage management through reactive and active power control and grid frequency management by active power control. This can be achieved by controlling PV inverters with reduced costs and efforts by developing standardized smart grid solutions based on the PV data. Another approach is hybridising with energy storage for additional ancillary services which has the potential to lead to a cost-effective reduction of the grid connection cost. In general, there will be the need for innovative monitoring and management of millions of centralized and distributed power sources to maintain system stability bringing in parallel the opportunity of additional revenues for PV. New revenue streams for PV will in fact be necessary to maintain profitability as further volume growth reduces costs but also exerts pressure on market prices as prices drop when large amounts of zero marginal cost PV are put on the power exchanges.
1. Definition of relevant parameters for the assessment of the performance, reliability KPIs for the project’s impact assessment (D1.1)
2. An assessment of the current PV fleet (D1.2) and the different services that these fleets could provide and an assessment of the financial challenges that could arise in case of large-scale PV penetration (D1.3)
3. Definition of future data standards for the PV domain (D1.4)
4. Definition of 4 main scenarios for the decarbonization of EU and status of EU27/Europe
5. Report with a) assessment of the needs for specific modelling of the industry; b) evaluation on how the available tools and models meet those needs
6. Significant improvements of several partners´ simulation tools
7. State of art of monitoring, data assessment and data analytics on PV systems
8. First model to estimate the expected energy yield of a bifacial PV plant
9. Preliminary version of calibration techniques for an BIPV digital twin
10. Failure detection and diagnosis tool based on hybrid models of health indicators of the PV module, including a new method for series resistance estimation from operating data
11. First prototype to detect failures from the convolution of IR images and SCADA data
12. Residential portfolio with enhanced data quality for the fault diagnostics toolbox
13. Design of physical models for the PV inverter digital twin
14. Algorithms for estimation of health and remaining useful life of battery cells
15. Report with the new needs and specifications on current QC procedures and equipment
16. Development of E-Dust soiling kit and E-1500 I-V tracer
17. Development of a procedure to characterize reference bifacial PV modules
18. State-of-the-art analysis of the technical limitations for high PV contribution in the grid in several EU-countries (D6.1) and an analysis of the legal situation in several EU-countries (D6.2)
19. Primary developments for a better communication with PV
20. Web-based collaborative environment for collaboration on modelling, monitoring and QC
21. Report detailing the monitoring guidelines and data management for all the demos and the validation plan for demonstration of modelling, diagnostics and field testing of large PV plants (D8.1) and medium-commercial and residential PV plants (D8.6)
2. An assessment of the current PV fleet (D1.2) and the different services that these fleets could provide and an assessment of the financial challenges that could arise in case of large-scale PV penetration (D1.3)
3. Definition of future data standards for the PV domain (D1.4)
4. Definition of 4 main scenarios for the decarbonization of EU and status of EU27/Europe
5. Report with a) assessment of the needs for specific modelling of the industry; b) evaluation on how the available tools and models meet those needs
6. Significant improvements of several partners´ simulation tools
7. State of art of monitoring, data assessment and data analytics on PV systems
8. First model to estimate the expected energy yield of a bifacial PV plant
9. Preliminary version of calibration techniques for an BIPV digital twin
10. Failure detection and diagnosis tool based on hybrid models of health indicators of the PV module, including a new method for series resistance estimation from operating data
11. First prototype to detect failures from the convolution of IR images and SCADA data
12. Residential portfolio with enhanced data quality for the fault diagnostics toolbox
13. Design of physical models for the PV inverter digital twin
14. Algorithms for estimation of health and remaining useful life of battery cells
15. Report with the new needs and specifications on current QC procedures and equipment
16. Development of E-Dust soiling kit and E-1500 I-V tracer
17. Development of a procedure to characterize reference bifacial PV modules
18. State-of-the-art analysis of the technical limitations for high PV contribution in the grid in several EU-countries (D6.1) and an analysis of the legal situation in several EU-countries (D6.2)
19. Primary developments for a better communication with PV
20. Web-based collaborative environment for collaboration on modelling, monitoring and QC
21. Report detailing the monitoring guidelines and data management for all the demos and the validation plan for demonstration of modelling, diagnostics and field testing of large PV plants (D8.1) and medium-commercial and residential PV plants (D8.6)
The project’s aimed leap of knowledge and advance beyond today’s state-of-the-art concerns five “innovation pathways”:
1) Simulation, modelling and designs for better PV reliability, performance and profitability
2) Monitoring and image-based fault diagnosis for higher PV performance and optimized O&M
3) Quality control (QC) equipment and procedures for PV components and systems reliability
4) Mid-/short-term forecasting up to nowcasting for PV systems aggregations and optimized grid integration
5) Innovative business models for PV added revenue at high-penetration levels
The expected potential impacts of the project innovations are:
•Increase the reliability of grid-connected PV plants, individually, at components and system level and collectively as a fleet.
•Increase the performances of grid-connected PV systems
•Increase utility-friendly integration of PV - the possibility to integrate more PV in the grids by increasing the knowledge and accuracy of the PV fleet characteristics, capacities, energy production and services provision by grid operators
•Increase the profitability of grid-connected PV systems
•Accelerate PV development in Europe
1) Simulation, modelling and designs for better PV reliability, performance and profitability
2) Monitoring and image-based fault diagnosis for higher PV performance and optimized O&M
3) Quality control (QC) equipment and procedures for PV components and systems reliability
4) Mid-/short-term forecasting up to nowcasting for PV systems aggregations and optimized grid integration
5) Innovative business models for PV added revenue at high-penetration levels
The expected potential impacts of the project innovations are:
•Increase the reliability of grid-connected PV plants, individually, at components and system level and collectively as a fleet.
•Increase the performances of grid-connected PV systems
•Increase utility-friendly integration of PV - the possibility to integrate more PV in the grids by increasing the knowledge and accuracy of the PV fleet characteristics, capacities, energy production and services provision by grid operators
•Increase the profitability of grid-connected PV systems
•Accelerate PV development in Europe