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A Modular Earth System Model Emulator for Regional eXtremes

Project description

Open-source software to predict regional weather extremes

Climate change is causing climate and weather extremes to become more frequent all over the world. However, they are not factored in the derivation of emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The integrated assessment models underlying the development of these emissions scenarios only consider changes in mean climate when evaluating options for changes in agricultural production, biofuel production, afforestation or other land use. The EU-funded MESMER-X project will address this shortcoming by developing an operational Earth System Model emulator providing climate extremes projections under different emissions and land use scenarios at a negligible computational cost. The MESMER-X emulator will be open-source and broadly available to scientists, policymakers and society.

Objective

Climate extremes count among the most impactful consequences of climate change, also under low-emissions scenarios consistent with the aims of the Paris agreement. However, they are not factored in the derivation of emissions scenarios informing international policy options in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Indeed, the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underlying the development of these emissions scenarios only consider changes in mean climate when evaluating options for e.g. changes in agricultural production, biofuel production, afforestation or other land use changes. In the MESMER-X project, we will address this shortcoming by developing an operational Earth System Model (ESM) emulator providing climate extremes projections under different emissions and land use scenarios at negligible computational cost. This will allow for the first time a full interactive coupling between IAMs and climate scenarios. The MESMER-X emulator will be made open source and broadly available to scientists, policy-makers and society. The MESMER-X project will provide a disruptive innovation enabling the identification of realistic and resilient options for regional land use development consistent with a net-zero CO2 emissions future, with a focus on the European continent. The results of the MESMER-X project will be of high societal benefit for informing policy development consistent with the Paris agreement on European and global scale, including the European Green Deal

Host institution

EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH
Net EU contribution
€ 150 000,00
Address
Raemistrasse 101
8092 Zuerich
Switzerland

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Region
Schweiz/Suisse/Svizzera Zürich Zürich
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
No data

Beneficiaries (1)