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Understanding the Caspian sea erratic fluctuations

Objectif


Foreseen Results

The project will be coordinated from France. Organization and management will include a "Coordination Workshop" at the early beginning of the project, and an "Evaluation Meeting" at mid-project. Several visits of the Coordinator proposer at every other proposer's institutions are an absolute must, to follow monitor partners' activities. Active inter-countries exchanges are also planned to develop synergies between partners, especially in the final, interpretative phase of the project.

As final results, a better understanding of processes operating on the Caspian Sea level fluctuations will enable substantial progress towards scientifically validated forecasts of climate- and/or geology-induced environmental changes for the near and remote future.
The Caspian Sea is of crucial economic importance for its 5 surrounding countries. Sudden water level changes cause great damage to industrial and agricultural facilities, fisheries, and coastal settlements. There is no satisfactory explanation of the Caspian Sea water level fluctuations. Apparently, climate plays a dominant role, but geological and anthropogenic factors may also come into play.

In order to improve the future change predictability, we propose a multi-disciplinary, comprehensive approach of the complex processes acting on the Caspian Sea. Compared to previous investigations in the field, three innovative aspects are proposed in our project :

(i) a geochemical approach of the modern budgets
(ii) high temporal resolution statistical analysis of the past, over time windows (100 to 1000 years) large enough to exhibit many fluctuations comparable with the recent ones. This will provide the necessary time series for analysis of short-term changes timing, duration and amplitude
(iii) testing the impact of potential causes and feedback effects by using the model established in (i) through a comparison between model simulation and past environmental conditions as deduced from the sedimentary records.

Large amounts of material are already available for this approach, gathered mainly by the scientists from the former Soviet Union and derived from a French-Russian cruise (1994). Also, there is an ongoing technical cooperation project executed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with participation of al 5 riparian countries, focused on the study of the causes of the sea level rise, using isotope geochemical tools. However, our goals require a more comprehensive water and sediment sampling and a large number of laboratory analyses.

The project gathers hydrometeorologists, hydrologists, geochemists, sedimentologists, paleoclimatologists and geologists from 4 NIS countries and 4 European countries. All of the 8 proposers have the experience of joint scientific projects. Their complementarity clearly appears through their specific tasks and work facilities.

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Coordinateur

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
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Adresse
Europole Mediteraneen de l'Arbois, CEREGE
13545 GARDANNE
France

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