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Preparation and integration of analysis tools towards operational forecast of nutrients in estuaries of European rivers

Objectif



To be able to plan and manage sustainable development in the coastal zone on both short- and long-term time scales, environmental and socio-economic imperatives require the effective application of our knowledge of coastal ecosystems. Tools are needed to operationally monitor and forecast those parameters which have key functions in these ecosystems. The final goal is the ability to produce routine assessments of the spatial distribution of nutrients at any given moment and to describe its evolution in time.
PIONEER will set up analysis systems for routine day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient distributions in the Odra and Ebro estuaries, which are located in coastal regions with significant impacts from nutrient loads. The project is focussed on integrating presently available technology and methodology in data management, geostatistical and dynamical data assimilation and numerical modelling in cooperation with scientific institutions, management authorities and commercial companies. Since the on-time delivery of reliable nutrient data can be achieved at present only with considerable employment of specialized personnel, the skills and potentials of these systems will be demonstrated during several weeks periods simulating "real-time" operational conditions with data previously sampled. The perequisites to run such systems under real-time and continuous operational mode will be discussed. As a by-product, the project will offer estimates of the predictability of the estuarine ecosystems on time scales of days and weeks.
The overall approach of PIONEER parallels that of weather forecasting in that actual point obervations are brought together with a "best guess" into a data assimilation scheme. This analysis forms the initial state of the forecast . Since the application of data assimilation to nutrient forecasting is new, three different assimilation schemes of increasing complexity and skill will be explored: straightformward linear interpolation, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation. Geostatistics uses a model of multivriate spatial-temporal correlation functions to optimally estimate the spatial distribution of a natural resource. Dynamical data assimilation results in a space-time analysis of the system which is dynamically consistent with the data, the guess and the assumed dynamics of the system in order to build an optimal forecast. The two techniques are complementary in the way they make use of the data and help improve understanding of the ecological system. Solutions obtained from each group of methods will be offered to the practitioner for the wide range of resource estimation and forecasting problems faced in estuarine and coastal research. The innovative intent of the project is to bring into this field methods which have proven to be successful in other areas (such as hydrogeology and fisheries for geostatistics, and meteorology and climatology for data assimilation) and to assess which of these techniques are suitable for the estuarine nutrient problem.
For PIONEER, the Odra and Ebro estuaries will serve as demonstrative case studies to ilustrate the potential of this combined methodology and its transferability to other coastal areas in Europe and world wide.
The systems developed by PIONEER will include:
- state-of-the-art data assimilation schemes to determine the actual spatialand temporal distribution of nutrients and closely related parameters suchas suspended sediment concentrations and phytoplancton biomass, - dynamical models to forecast temporal and spatial evolutions of nutrientconcentrations and phytoplancton biomass for several days and weeks, - data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange.
The application of the methodologies and future steps towards a continuously working operational mode of the forecasting system will be discussed with target groups from policy, management and tourism organizations in several regional meetings during the project; the results will be disseminated not only through classical avenues such as conferences and reviewed journals, but also through a workshop including delegates from target groups and scientists.

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GKSS - FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM GEESTHACHT GMBH
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