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Improving techniques for statistical and physical modelling of wind resource in complex terrain

Objective



The objective of this proposal is to improve the accuracy of the estimates of expected wind energy production (rather than mean wind speeds) from WTs in Europe and possibly worldwide. The need for improving the accuracy of these estimates stems from the realization that as wind parks are starting to become reality, financial institutions which are being called to provide development capital need, indeed require, more and different kinds of information from what is provided by the methodology in use today.Paramout among them is the estimation of confidence limits and risk assessment given the resource inherent variability and the need for long-term performance analysis. The inadequacies of present-day methods become more:pronounced in areas with complex topography which includes the majority of Mediterranean countries but also parts of Germany and Great Britain. Here energy production deviations which can easily become of the order of 30%-40%, a figure large enough to make an investment completely unacceptable. It is our expectation that improvement can be accomplished along a mixed methodology utilizing long time series data rather than statistical distributions and corrections to the existing or under development models that use these long time series and take into consideration atmospheric stability, site turbulence, local circulations and influences. The performance of flow field codes will also be examined for assist in computing confidence limits.
The importance of improving the reliability of the existing methodology for wind energy assessment is enlarged when large WTs are to be installed because of the size and different response of the machine to the wind field variation.
With the methodology defined, it is proposed further to utilize this new procedure for the preliminary examination of the Mediterranean countries (Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal) and part of Germany to identify candidate sites for large scale installation of wind parks aiming to cover substantial part of the electricity demand, possibly as much as 10%. This information is complementary to the risk assessment in promoting wind energy utilization since it provides the concrete documentation needed to substantiate the role of wind energy in Europe's energy mix in the immediate future.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

Lamda Technical Ltd
Address
4,Hadjiyianni Mexi Street
11528 Athens
Greece

Participants (7)

CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIONES ENERGETICAS, MEDIAMBIENTALES Y TECNOLOGICAS
Spain
Address
22,Avenida Complutense 22
28040 Madrid
CONPHOEBUS SCRL - ISTITUTO DI RICERCHE PER LE ENERGIE RINNOVABILI E IL RISPARMIO ENERGETICO
Italy
Address
Passo Martino Zona Industriale
95030 Catania, Piano D'arci
COUNCIL FOR THE CENTRAL LABORATORY OF THE RESEARCH COUNCILS
United Kingdom
Address
Chilton
OX11 0QX Didcot,harwell,chilton
Ecotecnia Sociedad Cooperativa Catalana Ltd.
Spain
Address
23 1,Cl. Amistad
08005 Barcelona
National Technical University of Athens
Greece
Address
5,Heroon Polytechniou Avenue
15773 Zografou
Universidade do Porto
Portugal
Address
Rua Dos Bragas
4099 Porto
Universität Karlsruhe (Technische Hochschule)
Germany
Address
12,Kaiserstrasse
76128 Karlsruhe