Forecasting Surface Weather and Climate at One-Month Leads through Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Project Information

FORECASToneMONTH

Grant agreement ID: 677756

DOI 10.3030/677756

Project closed

EC signature date 22 April 2016

Start date 1 May 2016

End date 31 October 2021

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost € 1 808 000,00

EU contribution € 1 808 000,00

Coordinated by

THE HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM
Israel

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (33)

The Generic Nature of the Tropospheric Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Author(s): Ian P. White; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Edwin P. Gerber; Martin Jucker; Peter Hitchcock; Jian Rao
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 9, 2020, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0697.1

The Southern Hemisphere Minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming in September 2019 and its predictions in S2S Models

Author(s): Jian Rao; Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White; Chen Schwartz
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032723

Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Northern Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex in CMIP5/6 Models

Author(s): Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 4, 2020, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0663.1

Nonlinear Interaction between the Drivers of the Monsoon and Summertime Stationary Waves

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White; Edwin P. Gerber; Ori Adam; Martin Jucker
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 7, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Author(s): Mark P. Baldwin; Blanca Ayarzagüena; Thomas Birner; Thomas Birner; Neal Butchart; Amy H. Butler; Andrew Charlton-Perez; Daniela I. V. Domeisen; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Hella Garny; Edwin P. Gerber; Michaela I. Hegglin; Ulrike Langematz; Nicholas Pedatella
Published in: Review of Geophysics, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 8755-1209
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10502884.1

Projected changes of stratospheric final warmings in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by CMIP5/6 models

Author(s): Jian Rao; Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05647-6

How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models?

Author(s): Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0024.1

Predicting the Downward and Surface Influence of the February 2018 and January 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Models.

Author(s): Jian Rao; Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031919

Predictability of the early winter Arctic oscillation from autumn Eurasian snowcover in subseasonal forecast models

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel; Chen Schwartz; Ian P. White; Jian Rao
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05305-3

CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century

Author(s): Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4fe

Arctic Ozone Loss in March 2020 and Its Seasonal Prediction in CFSv2: A Comparative Study with the 1997 and 2011 Cases

Author(s): Jian Rao; Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033524

MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models

Author(s): C. I. Garfinkel, C. Schwartz
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 44/19, 2017, Page(s) 10,054-10,062, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074470

Relative roles of the MJO and stratospheric variability in North Atlantic and European winter climate

Author(s): Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 122/8, 2017, Page(s) 4184-4201, ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher: GRL
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025829

A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

Author(s): Paul D. Williams, M. Joan Alexander, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Amy H. Butler, Huw C. Davies, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Yochanan Kushnir, Todd P. Lane, Julie K. Lundquist, Olivia Martius, Ryan N. Maue, W. Richard Peltier, Kaoru Sato, Adam A. Scaife, Chidong Zhang
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 44/21, 2017, Page(s) 11,201-11,211, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075483

Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Pathway of Different El Niño Flavors in Stratosphere-Resolving CMIP5 Models

Author(s): N. Calvo, M. Iza, M. M. Hurwitz, E. Manzini, C. Peña-Ortiz, A. H. Butler, C. Cagnazzo, S. Ineson, C. I. Garfinkel
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 30/12, 2017, Page(s) 4351-4371, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1

Classification of eastward propagating waves on the spherical Earth

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel, Itzhak Fouxon, Ofer Shamir, Nathan Paldor
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 143/704, 2017, Page(s) 1554-1564, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3025

Robustness of the Simulated Tropospheric Response to Ozone Depletion

Author(s): William J. M. Seviour, Darryn W. Waugh, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Gustavo J. P. Correa, Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 30/7, 2017, Page(s) 2577-2585, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0817.1

Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel, Seok-Woo Son, Kanghyun Song, Valentina Aquila, Luke D. Oman
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 44/1, 2017, Page(s) 374-382, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072035

Time-varying changes in the simulated structure of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel, Valentina Aquila, Darryn W. Waugh, Luke D. Oman
Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Issue 17/2, 2017, Page(s) 1313-1327, ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physicd journal EGU
DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017

Might stratospheric variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events?

Author(s): Chaim I Garfinkel
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 12/3, 2017, Page(s) 031001, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa60a4

The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors

Author(s): Ian White, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Martin Jucker, Valentina Aquila, Luke D. Oman
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 32/1, 2019, Page(s) 85-108, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0053.1

The mixed Rossby-gravity wave on the spherical Earth

Author(s): Nathan Paldor, Itzhak Fouxon, Ofer Shamir, Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 144/715, 2018, Page(s) 1820-1830, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3354

Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel, Amit Gordon, Luke D. Oman, Feng Li, Sean Davis, Steven Pawson
Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Issue 18/7, 2018, Page(s) 4597-4615, ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018

Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO

Author(s): Jian Rao, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Rongcai Ren
Published in: Journal of Climate, 2019, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0087.1

The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: Arctic stratosphere and Europe

Author(s): Israel Weinberger, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ian P. White, Luke D. Oman
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04805-1

Weakening of the teleconnection from El Niño‐Southern Oscillation to the Arctic stratosphere over the past few decades: What can be learned from subseasonal forecast models?

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel, Chen Schwartz, Amy H. Butler, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Seok‐Woo Son, Ian P. White
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 124, 2019, ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029961

The Impact of SST Biases in the Tropical East Pacific and Agulhas Current Region on Atmospheric Stationary Waves in the Southern Hemisphere

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White; Edwin P. Gerber; Martin Jucker
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0195.1

The Impact of Split and Displacement Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on the Troposphere

Author(s): Ian P. White; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Judah Cohen; Martin Jucker; Jian Rao
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033989

Planetary, inertia–gravity and Kelvin waves on the f ‐plane and β‐plane in the presence of a uniform zonal flow

Author(s): Yair De‐Leon; Itzhak Fouxon; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Nathan Paldor
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4107

Barotropic modes, baroclinic modes and equivalent depths in the atmosphere.

Author(s): Yair De-Leon; Nathan Paldor; Chaim I. Garfinkel
Published in: QJRMS, Issue 4, 2020, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3781

Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Author(s): Jian Rao; Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White
Published in: Geophsyical Research Letters, Issue 9, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089149

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

Author(s): Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Weinberger, Israel; White, Ian P.; Oman, Luke D.; Aquila, Valentina; Lim, Young-Kwon
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 4, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4386-x

The Building Blocks of Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Stationary Waves

Author(s): Chaim I. Garfinkel; Ian P. White; Edwin P. Gerber; Martin Jucker; Moran Erez
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0181.1