Project description
The role of human intervention on the formation of cold waves
The thermodynamic effect of global warming is expected to increase warm event frequencies. But how do we explain the increased cold events? What are the roles of human activities – greenhouse gas emissions, aerosol emissions and land use or cover changes – in shaping cold events? The Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) EXTREME project seeks to answer these questions. It will shed light on the contribution of warming-induced circulation changes. The aim will be to quantify human-induced thermodynamic and dynamic contributions in historical changes of regional heat and cold waves over Europe. The findings are expected to lift event attribution research to a regional scale, increasing confidence in attribution to human causes.
Objective
The exceptionally increasing European heat and cold waves in recent decades have been widely attributed to global warming from a thermodynamic perspective. However, contribution of warming-induced circulation changes to such regional waves (termed the 'human-induced dynamic contribution') remains largely unknown, while midlatitude atmospheric circulations have been altering under global warming. Human fingerprint will not be fully detected if the human-induced dynamic contribution is not included. Dr. Chunlüe Zhou who has an outstanding academic profile in daily data homogenization and regional climate change attribution, will interact with Prof. Deliang Chen (University of Gothenburg, Sweden) to make a robust attribution to quantify human-induced thermodynamic and dynamic contributions in historical changes of regional heat and cold waves over Europe. Human activities include greenhouse gas emissions, aerosol emissions and land use/cover changes. To make robust the attribution, attribution uncertainties arising from observation, model and attribution method uncertainties will be improved through: i) reducing observation errors by removing spurious shifts in the mean and variance of daily series; ii) improving regional details of heat and cold waves and circulation patterns by downscaling large ensembles of global-simulated data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and exploiting feature-based machine learning recognition; and iii) developing a Bayesian statistical approach to separate the human-induced thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. This robust attribution will address these current challenges, but also push event attribution research to a regional scale, greatly increasing confidence in attribution to human causes. Through this EXTREME project, I will increase my research skills, but also gain adequate soft skills in project management, supervision and dissemination with the ultimate intent to build a vibrant research group in Europe.
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Keywords
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2021-PF-01
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405 30 Goeteborg
Sweden
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