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Landslide evolution controlled by climatic factors in a seismic area. Prediction methods and warning criteria

Obiettivo

To establish the effects of extreme climatic events on the
mechanical behaviour and the stability of soil slopes under
static and dynamic conditions.


Firstly, the climatic and hydrological patterns and the
geological, geomorphological and geotechnical setting of a wide
(about 1500 square kilometers) region will be examined based on:
review and analysis of the available data, airphoto
interpretation, field surveying and climatic data logging. This
part of the research will result in a series of thematic maps:
lithological, geological, tectonic, hydrogeological, isoseismal
and landslide inventory maps. The study area is located in the
Southern Apennines (Italy) where slope stability is severely
affected by rainfall and seismic events.

One particular landslide will be then selected from within the
region for more detailed study. The landslide will be heavily
instrumented: continuously cored boreholes will be drilled,
pocket penetration and torvane tests will be carried out, in situ
density and water content profiles will be logged by radioisotope
measurements, open tube or Casagrande piezometers will be
installed to measure the water table fluctuations, water samples
for temperature and salt concentration measurements will be
taken, borehole inclinometers will be installed to monitor the
displacements at depth. Surface displacements will be monitored
also by the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite
observations.

Shock magnitude and acceleration data from seismic stations
already present in the study area will be systematically
collected to evaluate the influence of the seismic factor on the
slope instability. High quality undisturbed samples will be
tested in the laboratory to characterize the mechanical behaviour
of the soils. The tests will be carried out in triaxial, simple
shear and ring shear apparatus, providing strength, stiffness and
permeability data for the soils. The aspect of the generation of
excess pore pressures resulting from earthquake shaking will be
examined by additional cyclic triaxial and shear tests.

Both the in situ investigation and laboratory test results will
form the basis for the mathematical modelling that will be
developed. The statistical frequency and the spatial density of
rainfall triggered landslides will be defined. Simple prediction
models based on threshold values will be studied.

In the second part of the project the empirical models will be
related to a numerical model simulating the groundwater
circulation in the landslide body. The seasonal fluctuation of
the groundwater levels and the mechanism of progressive
deformation leading to slope failure will be modelled (Bjerrum
model and finite element method). An analysis of the
time-dependent evolution of parameters allowing to contribute to
a definition of an alarm criterion with an objective of short
term catastrophic forecast will be performed.

The research will produce understanding of the mechanisms which
trigger landslides, developing warning criteria which will aid
prevention planning. The methodology should be generally
applicable.

Campo scientifico

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Data not available

Meccanismo di finanziamento

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinatore

Politecnico di Bari
Contributo UE
Nessun dato
Indirizzo
Via E. Orabona 4
70125 Bari
Italia

Mostra sulla mappa
Costo totale
Nessun dato

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Ultimo aggiornamento: 10 Marzo 2023

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Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/EV5V0451/it

European Union, 2024