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Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting

Ziel

The provision of high quality and sustainable health care services and pension systems require an instrument to monitor and forecast demographic change. The aim of this proposal is to develop that instrument. The methodology consists of a macro-model MAC that models demographic changes at the population level and a micro-model MIC that models demographic events at the individual level. Mac extends the cohort-component model to a multistate model that considers transitions in life other than birth and death. The transitions determine the distribution of cohort members among functional states. The output of MAC consists of cohort biographies. The aggregate level of Mac is adequate for most regular demographic projections. MIC addresses demographic events and other life transitions at the individual level. It is a micro-simulation model that produces individual biographies. That level is required to project very detailed population categories and to assess the potential impact of policy interventions on the occurrence and timing of demographic events in life. MIC and MAC can work independently but they are more effective if they work as a team. They will be used to address policy questions such as the provision of health care services in an ageing population with morbidity expanding or compressing, or the provision of pensions in an ageing population with age at retirement declining or increasing. Methods are developed for estimating transition rates from census data, vital statistics and survey data. Data shortage will be overcome by parameterised projections using model schedules, i.e. mathematical models of age-specific rates of transition. User-friendly software will be developed, including a library of algorithms (objects) that are applied in the models. Hands-on training will be provided to forecasters from around Europe. The project is expected to produce a self-sustained European network on ageing.

Wissenschaftliches Gebiet

Programm/Programme

Thema/Themen

Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung

FP6-2003-SSP-3
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Finanzierungsplan

STREP - Specific Targeted Research Project

Koordinator

KONINKLIJKE NEDERLANDS AKADEMIE VAN WETENSCHAPPEN, NEDERLANDS INTERDISCIPLINAIR DEMOGRAFISCH INSTITUUT
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Lange Houtstraat 19 (postal code: 2511 CV)
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Niederlande

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Letzte Aktualisierung: 22 Juni 2009

Mein Booklet

Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/6637/de

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