Modelling microbe distribution in water catchments
Climate and land-use change affects the distribution, prevalence and human impact of waterborne pathogens. However, without a clear understanding of how organisms are transported within an ecosystem, these changes will be difficult to predict and prevent. In response to this challenge, the EU-funded PACEMOD (Development of integrated modelling techniques to assess impacts of climate change on pathogens and water quality) project modelled the transport and fate of microbes in river systems to examine the impacts of environmental change. The project also tested and validated the models in Europe and the United States. As part of the research, scientists received training in the relevant advanced modelling and geographic information system software. They also learned new sampling and analysis techniques. At the same time, PACEMOD conducted a theoretical investigation of key environmental change impacts on microbes in catchment areas. This information, coupled with real-world data, was used to develop a model of microbial transport and fate in response to environmental change for several rivers. These models revealed that land use in coming years will have as much of an impact on microbial counts as climate change. PACEMOD also used the models to design adaptation measures to help these rivers stick to health regulations around water quality. Researchers have shown that models can be used to predict microbial distribution in a catchment area, and how that distribution will change under external pressures. This is an important step towards better management of fresh water sources.
Keywords
Climate change, microbial activity, catchment areas, pathogens, water quality, land use
