JRC forecasts crop losses of up to 25 per cent due to long hot summer
The European Commission's Joint Research Centre has used its crop yield forecasting system to predict this year's crop losses in Europe as a result of the hot weather. The expected drop in the main crop yields ranges from around two per cent for potatoes to 25 per cent for sunflowers. The quantitative forecasts are produced by the JRC on a regular basis and support the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. They cover Europe's principal crops, including wheat, grain maize, rape seed, sunflower, sugar beet and potato. The forecasts are calculated using agro-meteorological model outputs and satellite indicators, combined with time series trend analyses. This year's forecasts indicate that the extreme weather conditions will lead to a reduction in both the quality and quantity of Europe's yields, particularly in central and southern Europe. High air temperatures and intensive solar radiation has resulted in a high increase in water consumption by the crops, and as there has been no significant rain, soil water reservoirs have dried out. Forecasts issued on 14 August, using data recorded four days before, predict a total wheat yield 6.6 per cent lower than last year, a grain maize yield 10.1 per cent lower than last year, and a sunflower yield only three quarters the size of last year's. The areas most affected by this loss will be Spain and Italy.