Energy transition: helping policymakers think three steps ahead
Putting the EU on track for climate neutrality by 2050 will require accurate tools for testing the possible outcomes of multiple interlinked choices that affect the future energy landscape. The EU-funded SENTINEL (Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory) project is developing a new, modular approach to energy modelling built with renewable energy systems in mind, to guide key policy decisions for Europe’s low-carbon future. Energy models make projections about energy systems under different scenarios, covering aspects ranging from resource use to greenhouse gas emissions, cost, economic impact and social aspects. “Policymakers need to know the economic, social and environmental implications of different choices that they face today,” explains Anthony Patt, professor of Climate Policy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) which coordinates the project. “We focus on answering these questions not with a single model that is so large and complicated as to be a mysterious black box, but rather by pulling together a set of small, transparent, open-source models and data, that can precisely meet their needs.”
Brussels and beyond
These connected open-source models will bring together data sets covering different locations and spatial scales, to help specific questions users have about the most suitable energy solutions for them. The project team aims to make these models available for download, with clear instructions on how to use them in combination. SENTINEL also hopes to enable a broader range of analysts to make use of such tools. Until now, the majority of energy models have been challenging to understand and use, as they were mostly designed for very limited groups of users, says Patt. The SENTINEL team wants to make it easier for different actors to access and use reliable and transparent models and data sets: “The EU’s energy transition is being guided from Brussels, but also, bottom-up, from Europe’s cities, regions and national capitals,” he notes. The set of tools Patt and his colleagues are developing is aimed not only at public servants, but also at private companies, such as consulting companies, suppliers and major users of energy.
Informed choices
To lay the groundwork for the new modelling framework, the SENTINEL team has been working with end users on a number of case studies to define their needs and the information gaps they are facing. “What they value are models that test the outcomes of concrete decisions, at the geographic and temporal scale they are being made, rather than delivering more abstract information. Providing this kind of information is our main challenge,” says Patt. The online platform hosted by ETH Zürich, which will remain available after the end of the project’s funding period, will serve as a hub for a community of users who will help to continuously improve the tool by sharing feedback and data. The long-term ambition is for SENTINEL to develop into a widely used resource for decades to come.
Keywords
SENTINEL, net zero, emissions, energy modelling, low-carbon, greenhouse gas emissions, open-source, framework, online platform
