Climate resilience starts with predicting the weather
The climate isn’t only changing, it’s becoming more extreme too. “From extreme heatwaves and storms to heavy precipitation, rampant flooding and extended droughts, climate change is having a direct impact on everything from infrastructure to food production and even our own health and well-being,” says Gabriele Messori, scientific coordinator at Uppsala University(opens in new window). With the support of the EU-funded EDIPI(opens in new window) project, Messori is leading an effort to develop methods for predicting extreme weather events and quantifying their impact on society.
Solutions support climate-smart decision-making
The project, supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions(opens in new window) programme, brought together 14 PhD students(opens in new window) from eight different countries, with each student working on dedicated topics. “The topics ranged from climate science to public health and mathematics, but always with an application to climate extremes in Europe,” explains Messori. Based on this work, the project gained new insights on how the strongest cyclone-induced winds in the North Atlantic, atmospheric rivers, and associated wet and windy extremes occur. They also determined how heatwave forecasts can be used to better predict the risk of heat-related deaths across Europe and support heat-health early warning systems. “Our methods have many real-world socio-economic implications and are well-positioned to help governments, city planners, insurance companies, emergency first responders and healthcare providers make more informed and climate-smart decisions,” adds Messori. Other key outcomes include: the ability to attribute windstorms and heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones to anthropogenic climate change; an advanced, impact-based drought forecasting system; and a method for assessing a windstorm’s potential impact on infrastructure. The project has shared its results via a range of events and activities(opens in new window).
Towards a climate-resilient Europe
According to Messori, a number of the project’s results have opened new lines of research. “Several of the project’s partners are collaborating to further develop the project’s heat-related mortality forecasts and the modelling of the impact windstorms can have on infrastructure,” he says. “Furthermore, many of the EDIPI researchers will take their newly developed skills to lead research projects in their own careers.” Messori himself is initiating new lines of research on the impacts of climate extremes – research that will surely leverage the holistic and interdisciplinary view of climate extremes achieved by EDIPI. “By advancing our ability to predict extreme weather events and understand their impact on society, EDIPI and the research it has inspired will play a key role in creating a climate-resilient Europe,” concludes Messori.
