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european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Primary Education outreach documentation (opens in new window)

Scientific documentation targeted at classroom use.

WP6 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft (opens in new window)

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP6 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes (opens in new window)

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP7 The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects

WP 5 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft (opens in new window)

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP5 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

EDIPI replication guidelines (opens in new window)

Guidelines for replication of the EDIPI framework in other fields.

Research paper II drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes (opens in new window)

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP6. The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects.

Key EDIPI results for policy-makers (opens in new window)

Report of key EDIPI results for policy-makers.

Research paper II drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremesWP5 (opens in new window)

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP5. The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet and/or windy extremes addressed in each of the projects.

Frontiers for young minds paper draft (opens in new window)

Paper draft for submission to Frontiers for young minds or equivalent outlet. Upon further drafts the PO will be notified to reopen the deliverable.

Pedagogical Material (opens in new window)

Pedagogical Material from Network-wide training Publicly Available. Confidential material from private-sector partners will only be disseminated within the consortium. Upon any further update the PO will be notifed to reopen the deliverable.

Material for teacher professional development (opens in new window)

Pedagogical material for continuing professional development of teachers.

Research paper II drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes (opens in new window)

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP7. The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects.

WP7 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft (opens in new window)

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP7 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremes (opens in new window)

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP5 The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet andor windy extremes addressed in each of the projects

Key EDIPI results for the private sector (opens in new window)

Report of key EDIPI results for private-sector practitioners.

Research paper I drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes (opens in new window)

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP6 The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects

Drought forecast system documentation (opens in new window)

Documentation for the prototype hydro-climatic impacts forecast system.

Publications

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries (opens in new window)

Author(s): Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester,
Published in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Issue 5, 2021, Page(s) : e446–54, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe (opens in new window)

Author(s): Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Drobinski, Mireia Ginesta
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue Volume 18, Number 3, 2023, Page(s) 034040, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb2

Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts (opens in new window)

Author(s): Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Published in: WIREs Water, Issue 11, 2024, ISSN 2049-1948
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698

Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations (opens in new window)

Author(s): Inovasita Alifdini, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto
Published in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Issue 77, 2025, Page(s) 20-37, ISSN 1600-0870
Publisher: Swedish Society for Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.4094

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer (opens in new window)

Author(s): Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 7, 2024, Page(s) 245, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions (opens in new window)

Author(s): Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael G Windisch, Sonia I Seneviratne
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2024, Page(s) 064011, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4619

A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020 (opens in new window)

Author(s): Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda 
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

How Does a Dry General Circulation Model Represent Atmospheric Blocking? (opens in new window)

Author(s): Vinita Deshmukh, Gwendal Rivière, Sébastien Fromang, Marion Saint-Lu
Published in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Issue 82, 2025, Page(s) 283-300, ISSN 0022-4928
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-24-0048.1

Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic (opens in new window)

Author(s): Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 5, 2024, Page(s) 821-837, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactfulweather extremes of 2021 (opens in new window)

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change (opens in new window)

Author(s): B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 12, 2024, Page(s) e2023EF004114, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004114

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe (opens in new window)

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Issue 120 (13), 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes (opens in new window)

Author(s): Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 150, 2025, Page(s) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy (opens in new window)

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate (opens in new window)

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 5, 2024, Page(s) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems (opens in new window)

Author(s): Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24, 2024, Page(s) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action (opens in new window)

Author(s): Kim R van Daalen, Cathryn Tonne, Jan C Semenza, Joacim Rocklöv, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, Hannah Bechara, Thessa M Beck, Max W Callaghan, Bruno M Carvalho, Jonathan Chambers, Marta Cirah Pradas, Orin Courtenay, Shouro Dasgupta, Matthew J Eckelman, Zia Farooq, Peter Fransson, Elisa Gallo, Olga Gasparyan, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Ian Hamilton, Ris
Published in: The Lancet Public Health, Issue 9, 2024, Page(s) e495-e522, ISSN 2468-2667
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic (opens in new window)

Author(s): Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711

Comparing the influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and spring soil moisture on European summer heat waves (opens in new window)

Author(s): Valeria Mascolo, Clément Le Priol, Fabio D’Andrea, Freddy Bouchet
Published in: Oxford Open Climate Change, Issue 5, 2025, Page(s) kgae023, ISSN 2634-4068
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023

The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence (opens in new window)

Author(s): Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Davide Faranda
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 14, 2025, Page(s) 737-765, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Earth System Dynamics
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic (opens in new window)

Author(s): Jamie Mathews, Arnaud Czaja
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue Volume 62, published in 2024, 2024, Page(s) Article ID 07196-0, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0

Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order land atmosphere coupled model (opens in new window)

Author(s): Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue Volume 5, Issue 4, 2024, Page(s) 893-912, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2257

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets (opens in new window)

Author(s): Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 44, 2024, Page(s) 100661, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms? (opens in new window)

Author(s): Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24, 2025, Page(s) 3445-3460, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia (opens in new window)

Author(s): Mireia Ginesta, Emmanouil Flaounas, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 37, 2025, Page(s) 5427-5452, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1

How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe (opens in new window)

Author(s): A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 20, 2025, Page(s) 034051, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany (opens in new window)

Author(s): Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2023, Page(s) 014037, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe (opens in new window)

Author(s): Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester
Published in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Issue Vol. 5, 9, 2021, Page(s) E573-E575, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4

Gulf Stream Moisture Fluxes Impact Atmospheric Blocks Throughout the Northern Hemisphere (opens in new window)

Author(s): J. P. Mathews, A. Czaja, F. Vitart, C. Roberts
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 51, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108826

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events (opens in new window)

Author(s): D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Published in: Physical Review E, Issue 110, 2024, Page(s) Article ID 041001, ISSN 2470-0045
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany (opens in new window)

Author(s): Federico Stainoh, Julia Moemken, Celia M. Gouveia, Joaquim G. Pinto
Published in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Issue 155, 2024, Page(s) 9197-9209, ISSN 0177-798X
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z

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