Learning the basics of stochastic modelling
An EU funded project focused on the dynamics of technology and the impact that R&D activities have on technological developments. The project was based on the exploration of former power generation technologies in addressing sustainable development issues considering both medium and long-term aspects of the technologies. R&D expenditure data was obtained in order to be integrated in all the analytical tools employed in the project. Furthermore, the project studied and specified sustainable development indicators including energy CO2 emissions, climate change, health concerns, pressure on natural resources, transport congestion, measures of social exclusion and regional imbalances. Furthermore, world energy models have been optimised to include longer-term analysis, including the re-designing of model mechanisms. Thus, a stochastic model that integrates a wide range of changes to the large-scale model in a reduced form has been designed. This model allows the measurement of uncertainties and their interconnections. After explaining the fundamental concepts involved in stochastic modelling, it was beneficial to develop an interactive software ("ISPA Tool") to operate the ISPA model and encourage the exploration of its potential. The tool permits non-expert users to implement ISPA and examine its outcomes. Furthermore, an introductory tutorial based on probabilistic concepts has been designed to assist likely future users in understanding the model's constructs.
