Linking economic, energy and environmental policies
More specifically, the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme funded ERASME and eight partners to investigate the impact of the Lisbon objective on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Their approach was based on the New Econometric Model for Environmental and Sustainable development and Implementation Strategies (NEMESIS), a model ERASME had a hand in developing. The model was run for a 30-year horizon, extending to 2030. Realisation of the Lisbon objective led to remarkable benefits for the EU economy, including a significant rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) accompanied by smaller gains in employment, productivity, exports, product quality and so on. Countries with less developed R&D sectors often experienced the most growth and nearly a third of the new jobs created were tied to R&D. A good degree of variation in the numbers between Member States was observed. The amount of growth in GDP by 2030 varied depending on the assumptions incorporated into NEMESIS, as did the corresponding growth in CO2 emissions. The largest increase in emissions was attained in the public-sector order scenario. A north-south split was also detected whereby CO2 emission increases were higher in northern Europe while emissions fell in some of the southern Member States. ERASME also used NEMESIS to determine the effects of achieving Kyoto emissions reduction targets upon employment. They discovered that the outcome was strongly driven by the economic policies implemented to make compliance possible. There was a generally positive impact on employment, which was enhanced when the Member State was emitting less than it was required to. Furthermore, Europe fared best in the scenario where emissions trading and environmental taxes were implemented. The results of the NEMESIS modelling exercises will be of value to policy makers.
