Predicting flows of climate change refugees to Europe Climate change is a global phenomenon, but its impacts may be very local in nature. New research examines the risk of mass migration to Europe from neighbouring regions adversely affected by global warming. Climate Change and Environment © Thinkstock Across the globe, people are forced to abandon their homes, regions and even countries for reasons ranging from economic to social to political. The weather can even play a role in forced migration as it can cause flooding, drought and consequently loss of livelihood. This is especially true for farmers, fishermen and those who raise livestock. While considerable funding has been put towards understanding the science of climate change, little has been spent on coming to grips with its effects, such as the increased risk of forced migration. This is changing with projects such as ‘Environmental change and forced migration scenarios' (EACH-FOR), which received financial support from the EU. Several problematic areas were investigated that could potentially produce flows of environmentally forced migrants toward Europe. In total, 23 case studies were selected, each presenting a different set of climatological, geopolitical and socioeconomic conditions. A methodology was then developed capable of analysing both direct and indirect causes of migration. Finally, this was applied to the case studies for a range of environmental migration scenarios. %The results were discussed at length at an international conference organised by EACH-FOR participants titled ‘Environment, Forced Migration & Social Vulnerability’ (EFMSV). Academics, policymakers and other stakeholders were invited. The results were also shared via the project website as well as through several publications and conference proceedings. EACH-FOR provided valuable insight into potential streams of climate change refugees entering Europe. Armed with this knowledge, steps can now be taken to mitigate the impacts of uprooting people on such a large scale.
